The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:40 pm Margarine GMail? :?
Butter + email
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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i'm 100% sure hepcat actua...ehhh...whatevs
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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hitbyambulance wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:04 pm i'm 100% sure hepcat actua...ehhh...whatevs
:lol:
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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I’ll have to see if I can find the interview. While I don’t think he was stating that failure to get an impeachment conviction would set any actual legal precedent, it would make it more difficult to go after him later for crimes many people would see as him already being found not guilty for.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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So the criminal justice system has been reduced to: many people are saying...?
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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It can, yes.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Jaymann wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:50 pm But her emails!
That meme needs to die.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:19 pm
hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
Yeah this one doesn't make much sense to me. This is more like a civil lawsuit vs a criminal trial.

Either way it doesn't matter because they probably are going to let these criminals off the hook as long as he just leaves. I am beginning to think that anyone banking on any party holding Trump accountable is going to be sorely disappointed.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Grifman wrote:
hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
Please find that article as Impeachment has only been regarded as a political act since Clinton.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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I looked that up a while ago. Impeachment and criminal charges are two different things, and being cleared in one does not affect the other. As Impeachment isn't considered a criminal charge, it does not invoke double jeopardy.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Pyperkub wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:50 am
Grifman wrote:
hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
Please find that article as Impeachment has only been regarded as a political act since Clinton.
I'm not clear on what you are trying to say. Impeachment does not result in a prison sentence so it is quite clear that it is not a criminal conviction. "High crimes and misdemeanors" as specified in the Constitution are not included or specified in any US criminal code.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Pyperkub wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:50 am
Grifman wrote:
hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
Please find that article as Impeachment has only been regarded as a political act since Clinton.
Unfortunately, it was a brief interview on NPR with one of the senators that I can't seem to find a transcript of on their site. But I'll try a bit more to find further info that can help explain what he meant. I don't want to venture off course from his exact words. My takeaway was that failing to get an impeachment conviction would make it more difficult to convince a jury to convict him for the same crimes in a criminal court. But I may have misinterpreted his meaning.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Perception is reality now. Democrats gambled that Mueller would give them a sound byte — despite him not being political or playing well on TV. That didn’t get anyone’s attention. An impeachment would get attention but the wrong headlines — especially when the McConnell controlled Senate quickly moves to a verdict not to impeach. That headline would be “cleared” or “exonerated” which would justify Trump voters even more.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Zarathud wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:18 pm That headline would be “cleared” or “exonerated” which would justify Trump voters even more.
No, it would be "unimpeachable". Right before "infallable" and "President for Life."
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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You'll never get Trump supporters to move from the position of "HRC and the previous government colluded with foreign agents in order to try to frame Trump for collusion with foreign agents".
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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And that's why we consider them stupid.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Despite loads of actual evidence to the contrary.

Which is why they’re morons.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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CNN
House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler on Thursday said the House Judiciary Committee is "going to court" next week in hopes of enforcing a subpoena for White House counsel Don McGahn to testify before Congress.

McGahn, a key witness in the special counsel's report on obstruction of justice, was subpoenaed by the committee earlier this year but did not testify after the White House instructed him not to comply.
...
Nadler called McGahn "the main fact witness" of the Mueller investigation and alluded to more legal action against the Trump administration from the House panel, stating the committee will be "filing others."
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

hepcat wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:05 am
Pyperkub wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:50 am
Grifman wrote:
hepcat wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:56 pm One thing to keep in mind that I heard one Dem senator mention on NPR today is that if they go ahead and impeach, and the republicans strike down a conviction (which is almost certain to happen), it will be considered an exoneration. Making it all the more difficult to convict Trump of any crime after he leaves office.
I don’t think that is true at all. Impeachment is a political act, not a criminal one. But I’m no lawyer so take that with a grain of salt.
Please find that article as Impeachment has only been regarded as a political act since Clinton.
Unfortunately, it was a brief interview on NPR with one of the senators that I can't seem to find a transcript of on their site. But I'll try a bit more to find further info that can help explain what he meant. I don't want to venture off course from his exact words. My takeaway was that failing to get an impeachment conviction would make it more difficult to convince a jury to convict him for the same crimes in a criminal court. But I may have misinterpreted his meaning.
In other words, a weak defense to justify the ridiculousness of not opening an impeachment inquiry.
Zarathud wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:18 pm Perception is reality now. Democrats gambled that Mueller would give them a sound byte — despite him not being political or playing well on TV. That didn’t get anyone’s attention. An impeachment would get attention but the wrong headlines — especially when the McConnell controlled Senate quickly moves to a verdict not to impeach. That headline would be “cleared” or “exonerated” which would justify Trump voters even more.
Which is why articles of impeachment wouldn't just be obstruction. They'd be 'Inciting racism' / 'Ignoring the Russian threat to our elections' or something along those lines. Let the Senate exonerate him on those and then bury Trump and the R senators by making the election a referendum on them. This is not hard to imagine. The problem is the Democrats are weak and always hoping the world will just work out for them. They need to fight for the world they want.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Weak? Weak would've been 3 years of unopposed Trump. That has most certainly NOT been the case. Just because they're not following your personal battle plan doesn't mean they're not in the fight.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:50 pmWhich is why articles of impeachment wouldn't just be obstruction. They'd be 'Inciting racism' / 'Ignoring the Russian threat to our elections' or something along those lines. Let the Senate exonerate him on those and then bury Trump and the R senators by making the election a referendum on them. This is not hard to imagine. The problem is the Democrats are weak and always hoping the world will just work out for them. They need to fight for the world they want.
What makes you so sure that that will hurt Republican senators? Have you met red state electorates lately? It might help, but I'm unsure whether it's going to hurt Susan Collins more than Doug Jones.

The strongest case for impeachment is the moral / principled one - this really is stuff that really merits impeachment. The electoral / political case, on the other hand, has always struck me as fairly speculative. Every time that a party is doing something that polls poorly (e.g., the ACA in 2009, the Republican tax bill in 2018) supporters make the case that "once the public learns more about this, they'll come around to supporting us on this", and it rarely turns out to be the case.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:48 pm The strongest case for impeachment is the moral / principled one - this really is stuff that really merits impeachment.
Agreed.
The electoral / political case, on the other hand, has always struck me as fairly speculative.
I'm not smart enough to have an informed opinion here. I'd hope you are wrong. I'd hope the moral decision informs the political one. But I am so out of touch with so many of my fellow Americans, I simply have no idea.

I also fear that after three years, Mueller's testimony is as right as the time is going to get, that now is the time to shit or get off the pot. If you don't move on, what evidence are you hoping will change things tomorrow? Next week? After the primaries? The message right now is that democrats are using this a political chips, much in the way GOP played their political chips declaring the matter closed like nine times. I dunno about weak but I think the patience for the COLLUSION with no action will wear thin the further we move from Mueller's testimony, no matter the reality. After that, I fear it's all about "do I still have steady paycheck".
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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LA Times
President Trump will be ineligible for California’s primary ballot next year unless he discloses his tax returns under a state law that immediately took effect Tuesday, an unprecedented mandate that is almost certain to spark a high-profile court fight and might encourage other states to adopt their own unconventional rules for presidential candidates.

The law, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom on his final day to take action and passed on a strict party-line vote in the Legislature, requires all presidential candidates to submit five years of income tax filings. They must do so by late November in order to secure a spot on California’s presidential primary ballot in March. State elections officials will post the financial documents online, although certain private information must first be redacted.
...
Although it would keep a candidate off the March primary ballot, the new law does not appear to keep a candidate who refuses to disclose the information from appearing on the statewide ballot in the November 2020 election. Another facet of the law is that it requires candidates for California governor to release their tax returns in advance of the statewide primary, beginning in 2024.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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He wanted to. But he's under audit. He's always under audit. What can he do? His hands are tied and he'll sue anyone who tries to untie them. /Jake Blues
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:48 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:50 pmWhich is why articles of impeachment wouldn't just be obstruction. They'd be 'Inciting racism' / 'Ignoring the Russian threat to our elections' or something along those lines. Let the Senate exonerate him on those and then bury Trump and the R senators by making the election a referendum on them. This is not hard to imagine. The problem is the Democrats are weak and always hoping the world will just work out for them. They need to fight for the world they want.
What makes you so sure that that will hurt Republican senators? Have you met red state electorates lately? It might help, but I'm unsure whether it's going to hurt Susan Collins more than Doug Jones.
I'm not sure but I believe that the lack of putting their necks out and playing the safe course is massively risky. More massive than the CW thinks.
The strongest case for impeachment is the moral / principled one - this really is stuff that really merits impeachment. The electoral / political case, on the other hand, has always struck me as fairly speculative. Every time that a party is doing something that polls poorly (e.g., the ACA in 2009, the Republican tax bill in 2018) supporters make the case that "once the public learns more about this, they'll come around to supporting us on this", and it rarely turns out to be the case.
In 2018 the ACA was fairly popular and was their signature policy talking point beyond being anti-Trump. They need to do bold things. They need to get people off the sidelines and they wont if it is the same old safe shit.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:28 amIn 2018 the ACA was fairly popular and was their signature policy talking point beyond being anti-Trump. They need to do bold things. They need to get people off the sidelines and they wont if it is the same old safe shit.
Yeah, but in 2010 they got absolutely slaughtered, largely because of the ACA, and it didn't really help them in 2012 either. I'm reasonably confident that impeaching Trump will be the popular position in the long run, but I'm way less confident of that as to 2020.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Donald Trump is the single most unifying cultural force today; in like an-alien-attack-from-outer-space sorta way.
Jesus said, "Do not be afraid of those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. Rather, be afraid of the One who can destroy both soul and body."[Matt 10:28] God can totally destroy us.

Jesus also said, "For my Father's will is that everyone who looks to the Son and believes in him shall have eternal life, and I will raise them up at the last day.”[John 6:40] Eternal life is conditional.

His disciple John wrote, "Whoever has the Son has eternal life; whoever does not have the Son of God does not have eternal life. [1 John 5:12] Eternal life is optional.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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You could probably replace Dr. Manhattan with Donald Trump in the Watchmen movie (or the aliens from the comic book) and it would still work.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:56 am
malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:28 amIn 2018 the ACA was fairly popular and was their signature policy talking point beyond being anti-Trump. They need to do bold things. They need to get people off the sidelines and they wont if it is the same old safe shit.
Yeah, but in 2010 they got absolutely slaughtered, largely because of the ACA, and it didn't really help them in 2012 either. I'm reasonably confident that impeaching Trump will be the popular position in the long run, but I'm way less confident of that as to 2020.
Sure and if I remember correctly people liked all the components of the ACA when polled about them individually. What the Democrats did was fail to sell the ACA properly and let the Republicans craft the narrative. And that is indeed a risk with impeachment but they should be able to win this if they'd just be better. In effect, channel the high road into a rallying cry at a high level instead of showing them the detailed plan that they don't understand and is all attack surface for the Republicans.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:56 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:56 am
malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:28 amIn 2018 the ACA was fairly popular and was their signature policy talking point beyond being anti-Trump. They need to do bold things. They need to get people off the sidelines and they wont if it is the same old safe shit.
Yeah, but in 2010 they got absolutely slaughtered, largely because of the ACA, and it didn't really help them in 2012 either. I'm reasonably confident that impeaching Trump will be the popular position in the long run, but I'm way less confident of that as to 2020.
Sure and if I remember correctly people liked all the components of the ACA when polled about them individually. What the Democrats did was fail to sell the ACA properly and let the Republicans craft the narrative. And that is indeed a risk with impeachment but they should be able to win this if they'd just be better. In effect, channel the high road into a rallying cry at a high level instead of showing them the detailed plan that they don't understand and is all attack surface for the Republicans.
Don't you think Democrats tried to sell the ACA in 2010? Do you think that there was some strategic meeting in 2010 where they said, "you know what - let's just let Republicans craft the narrative and not tell our side of the story." No matter what you do, Republicans get to say whatever they're going to say.

I'm super skeptical in general of retrospective analyses that say "well, it would've worked out if only they'd done pretty much what they did, only *better*". Democrats running in 2010 had every political incentive to sell themselves and the ACA and to craft the narrative as best they could - what reason do we have to think that Democrats are better at controlling the narrative in 2020?
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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There are zero reasons to believe that Democrats are magically better at controlling the narrative. If they were, we wouldn't be debating over whether or not to impeach the President. We'd be doing it.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Democrats don’t have a political news network pushing a unified message, as much coordination with a donor network, or authoritarian party discipline. Without Fox, Koch institutions or RINO purges, the Democrats will regularly slip messaging discipline.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:19 pmI'm super skeptical in general of retrospective analyses that say "well, it would've worked out if only they'd done pretty much what they did, only *better*". Democrats running in 2010 had every political incentive to sell themselves and the ACA and to craft the narrative as best they could - what reason do we have to think that Democrats are better at controlling the narrative in 2020?
This was my point - the Democrats are pathetic at messaging. Big however there though, this is impeachment. If they can't message that then batten the hatches because 2020 is going to be a sandstorm of bluster. They have to figure out how to sell a good message - or else - we potentially lose the country to Trump. And I get the skepticism but I think their performance on selling their policies and accomplishments is pretty measurable as 'bad to terrible' at this point.

Take the debate last night, the only one up on the stage who got that they need to really work on their communications to the public was Williamson. Perhaps because she is a charlatan of Trump caliber but still the point is about right. The debate society for nerds isn't going to cut it. No one is going to remember M4A versus 'M4A for some who want it' or whatever variant wins out as a plank. They need to elevate away from the micro-policy into discussions about the moral direction of this country.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:49 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:19 pmI'm super skeptical in general of retrospective analyses that say "well, it would've worked out if only they'd done pretty much what they did, only *better*". Democrats running in 2010 had every political incentive to sell themselves and the ACA and to craft the narrative as best they could - what reason do we have to think that Democrats are better at controlling the narrative in 2020?
This was my point - the Democrats are pathetic at messaging. Big however there though, this is impeachment. If they can't message that then batten the hatches because 2020 is going to be a sandstorm of bluster. They have to figure out how to sell a good message - or else - we potentially lose the country to Trump. And I get the skepticism but I think their performance on selling their policies and accomplishments is pretty measurable as 'bad to terrible' at this point.

Take the debate last night, the only one up on the stage who got that they need to really work on their communications to the public was Williamson. Perhaps because she is a charlatan of Trump caliber but still the point is about right. The debate society for nerds isn't going to cut it. No one is going to remember M4A versus 'M4A for some who want it' or whatever variant wins out as a plank. They need to elevate away from the micro-policy into discussions about the moral direction of this country.
They were good enough at messaging to win decisively in 2018.

Anyway, messaging about politics and policy and morality is one of the core things that politicians do. I don't doubt that there are innovations and improvements to be made on how it's done, but counting on a sea change in messaging strategy and success in 2020 seems to be iffy.

In general my point is that historically "sure this thing that we want to do is polling poorly now, but once we do it and *explain it really well* then voters will definitely come around" hasn't panned out super well. Could it pan out this time? Sure, but odds aren't great.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:55 pmThey were good enough at messaging to win decisively in 2018.
I'll agree they won decisively in 2018. I won't agree it was any particular brilliance in their messaging. It was pretty much protect ACA which had just become popular over time and anti-Trump.
Anyway, messaging about politics and policy and morality is one of the core things that politicians do. I don't doubt that there are innovations and improvements to be made on how it's done, but counting on a sea change in messaging strategy and success in 2020 seems to be iffy.
I sure hope not because then we have a good chance of Trump tearing this system down. This is the crisis they need to be better for. What I saw last night wasn't largely a group of people addressing the reality that our Democracy is at stake.
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LordMortis
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Zarathud wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:38 pm Democrats don’t have a political news network pushing a unified message, as much coordination with a donor network, or authoritarian party discipline. Without Fox, Koch institutions or RINO purges, the Democrats will regularly slip messaging discipline.
I'm not sure the Kochs are part of this. They absolutely beyond a shadow of doubt were key in creating it but I'm not so sure they like they monster they pretty much created. I think they are more rand short sighted greedy libertarian than corrupt to the core bigot zealot. More Frankenstein than monster.

They're not excused but it doesn't seem right to lump them in with where we are today.

Literally the first item when I google Kochs on Trump (Link is spammy don't click it without ad blockers)

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -primaries
OXON HILL, Md. — The Koch political network for the first time plans to intervene in GOP primaries as part of a deliberate 2020 strategy to reverse years of essentially rubber-stamping the Republican Party in general elections.

Disappointed with Republicans in Congress and occasionally at odds with President Trump, the coalition of political groups overseen by Charles Koch has been re-evaluating its engagement in federal campaigns. Playing in GOP primaries to elect more like-minded Republicans to the House and Senate is key tactical adjustment the network has agreed to, with a top Koch official confirming that incumbents could be targeted for defeat.

“We think that if we’re going to be more selective, you know, raise the bar before getting involved, that it makes sense, therefore, to do more primaries,” Tim Phillips, who runs Americans for Prosperity, the Koch grassroots arm, told the Washington Examiner on Thursday while making the rounds at the Conservative Political Action Conference. The Washington Examiner is a CPAC media sponsor.

“If your model is, be more selective — try to find people who are genuinely policy champions,” Phillips added, “then there are going to be times that the primary is the crucial aspect of being able to do that.”
I think it's too late, though. The Kochs woke the DeVos/Princes and Trumps and Adelsons and Theils and Ichans and Feinbergs and Mnuchins and... To say nothing of all the people who aspire to become them.
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Kraken
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:49 pm Take the debate last night, the only one up on the stage who got that they need to really work on their communications to the public was Williamson. Perhaps because she is a charlatan of Trump caliber but still the point is about right. The debate society for nerds isn't going to cut it. No one is going to remember M4A versus 'M4A for some who want it' or whatever variant wins out as a plank. They need to elevate away from the micro-policy into discussions about the moral direction of this country.
The purpose of these debates is for the large field to differentiate themselves before the primaries. They differ on policy. If they spent 2.5 hours agreeing that Trump is terrible, they would accomplish nothing. Democratic voters already know that Trump is terrible. Save that for the general.
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Holman
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by Holman »

The major *NOT* crazy candidate focusing on the moral direction and mission of the country (to the detriment of clear policy proposals) is Joe Biden.

I'd prefer someone else, but he definitely has this going for him, and he doesn't need crystal aura bullshit to make the point.

If I were his team, I'd tell him to spend a little time swatting Williamson aside tonight.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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