The Former Trump Presidency Thread

[Kraken]

A cornerstone of ACA. Never done before. Is currently law. That he/GOP has sued to eliminate. Jesus Christ.

I feel like even George Orwell would be saying WTF at this point.

I feel like the rest of the government has finally figured out that it has to route around the WH...ignore what they can and defy what they can't ignore. If trump loses Moscow Mitch, he's irrelevant.

[Max Peck]

I never expected to see a former DirNSA/DCIA say something like this to any American politician, let alone the Vice President.

You’re an idiot.

America needs College Football! It’s important for student-athletes, schools, and our Nation. These Great athletes have worked their whole lives for the opportunity compete on the college gridiron and they deserve the chance to safely get back on the field! #WeWantToPlay

[LawBeefaroni]

He's the #2 idiot.

[Scraper]

I mean to be fair he at least got the estimated number of deaths right. I would chalk that up to a reading error from 1 to 2. But with a reading error you realize the error immediately and correct it. Which indicates he didn't know he made an error. Which is scary.

[LordMortis]

People are saying the Napoleonic wars were the first World War. Many people call the Great War World War II and the war for Japanese Imperialism involving the heroes of Russia and Western Europe where Germanies economic struggles eventually lost the nation to the socialists World War III. It's only fake news and democrat control over schools that makes it look like World War 2 didn't end in 1917 because of the great pandemic. That's why I came up with the phrase "The Great War" because of the Spanish virus. No one called it the great war until I figured out it ended because of the epidemic.

[RunningMn9]

He's the #2 idiot.

I cannot for the life of me understand why this dolt keeps calling it the 1917 pandemic.

[Defiant]

He's the #2 idiot.

Well, maybe if you think of World War 2 as just the second wave of World War 1, it maybe makes some sense?

Hey, at least he's in the same century this time, as opposed to airports in the revolutionary war.

[Octavious]

I'm getting the 2016 vibe hard right now. Trump's numbers are starting to go up and I'm seeing Trump flags all over the place. This is so depressing. I really don't think we'll even remotely be the same country anymore if he wins again.

[El Guapo]

I'm getting the 2016 vibe hard right now. Trump's numbers are starting to go up and I'm seeing Trump flags all over the place. This is so depressing. I really don't think we'll even remotely be the same country anymore if he wins again.

Sort of. The average hasn't changed much - the 538 average has been fairly steady at slightly above 8 point Biden lead. Currently it's at Biden +8.4. It is down slightly from early July where it was north of Biden +9. The previous equilibrium was around Biden +6, so I wonder whether the coronavirus and BLM stuff has had the effect of bumping the equilibrium a couple points towards Biden.

There's also some question about the impact of polling methods (for some reason live polling has been producing much more favorable results for Biden). I also understand that we should be seeing a lot more poll results over the next few weeks - basically pollers are all going to want to run polls following the DNC to gauge the state of the race, so there hasn't been a ton of polling over the past couple weeks as pollers don't want to send people out twice over a fairly short time frame.

[Jaymann]

He's the #2 idiot.

Well, maybe if you think of World War 2 as just the second wave of World War 1, it maybe makes some sense?

I think WWII ended when we nuked a hurricane off the coast of Japan. The Japanese were so thankful they laid down their arms.

[Defiant]

I'm getting the 2016 vibe hard right now. Trump's numbers are starting to go up and I'm seeing Trump flags all over the place

From what I've seen of the polling, Trump's numbers haven't really gone up. To the extent there's been change in the polling (and there hasn't been that much) it's Biden's numbers that have changed.

[El Guapo]

There's also all sorts of wildcards and uncertainties. Usually each convention produces a significant bump. Will the virtual conventions produce a bump? Of what size?

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

[stessier]

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

I would agree because I read and understand things, but I wonder what the optics of people suing to prevent his EOs from going into effect will be to the uninitiated?

[El Guapo]

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

I would agree because I read and understand things, but I wonder what the optics of people suing to prevent his EOs from going into effect will be to the uninitiated?

Maybe I'm biased because I was unaware of those lawsuits, but I would expect the effect will be pretty minimal. Also my understanding is that the EOs themselves won't do much.

The core effect will be people getting pissed off because companies shut down and people lose jobs. The spin around those facts won't matter all that much.

[YellowKing]

Yeah, I believe Trump's "immunity" to a cratering economy and raging pandemic only extends to his base. The spin isn't going to work for those voters who cast anti-Hillary votes, "we need a DC outsider" votes, and perhaps most importantly, those who voted for Trump because they believed he was the man to fix their economic status.

The consistent idea among his administration that these small gestures are going to dig himself out of this hole are laughable. No, people aren't going to forget about the pandemic because you tossed a few federal officers to crack down on protesters in Portland. No, people aren't going to forget about the economy because you signed a couple of futile executive orders that do nothing.

In some ways, we're fortunate that the "alternate reality" these idiots live in also extends to how they perceive re-election strategy. They are their own worst enemy in that department, which is just fine with me.

Unfortunately I believe we're probably looking at a more dangerous, competent version of Trump coming to power in 2024 or 2028, but that's a future I don't want to think about right now.

[Kraken]

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

I would agree because I read and understand things, but I wonder what the optics of people suing to prevent his EOs from going into effect will be to the uninitiated?

Maybe I'm biased because I was unaware of those lawsuits, but I would expect the effect will be pretty minimal. Also my understanding is that the EOs themselves won't do much.

The core effect will be people getting pissed off because companies shut down and people lose jobs. The spin around those facts won't matter all that much.

I, for one, am cheesed off about not getting a second stimulus check, and I imagine that 100 million other Americans feel the same way. Of course, we'll all blame the party we're predisposed to hate.

Trump's EOs mainly sowed confusion and blew up the negotiations. They will have little impact beyond that.

[malchior]

Trump's EOs mainly sowed confusion and blew up the negotiations. They will have little impact beyond that.

That appears to be Pelosi's position on this. Let Trump try and fail. That makes a bit of sense since she has little power to oppose them but I think it's still dangerous long-term to let them go entirely unchallenged.

[LawBeefaroni]

Pelosi is risk-averse to a fault. Beyond a fault. Of the "it's better to do nothing and fail than to try and fail" variety.

I try not to be ageist but when a septuagenarian is the young guy in the room I think we're kind of in a leadership rut.

[Grifman]

This is a real thing:



When I first saw it, I thought it was an SNL parody.

[LawBeefaroni]

Don't you dare kneel at a sportsball game. But by all means, use the American Flag as a couch comforter.

[malchior]

Pelosi is risk-averse to a fault. Beyond a fault. Of the "it's better to do nothing and fail than to try and fail" variety.

I try not to be ageist but when a septuagenarian is the young guy in the room I think we're kind of in a leadership rut.

Indeed. Speaking of ageism I was surprised to see that they nearly put a GenX person the ticket. What a relief that didn't happen.

[Grifman]

Don't you dare kneel at a sportsball game. But by all means, use the American Flag as a couch comforter.

Yeah, according to the US code regarding the flag, this is not appropriate.

[Isgrimnur]

Unfortunately, the flag code is not enforceable.

[Grifman]

There's also all sorts of wildcards and uncertainties. Usually each convention produces a significant bump. Will the virtual conventions produce a bump? Of what size?

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

'

No, there will be stimulus, they will get there eventually. Both parties have an incentive to help restore the economy, but the Republicans even more so since they hold power.

[Jaymann]

Unfortunately, the flag code is not enforceable.

Unless you reside in Portland.

[Kraken]

There's also all sorts of wildcards and uncertainties. Usually each convention produces a significant bump. Will the virtual conventions produce a bump? Of what size?

Also, if no further stimulus happens, as seems likely at this point, seems very likely that the economy will be even worse over the next couple months. Seems like that should probably have a negative effect for Trump.

'

No, there will be stimulus, they will get there eventually. Both parties have an incentive to help restore the economy, but the Republicans even more so since they hold power.

Republicans think the stock market is the economy. They won't budge until it falls (or at least stagnates).

[Max Peck]

Every time Trump rambles on about things like this, I remember that he can't help but project and feel that I have a little more insight into his own game plan for the election.

[Paingod]

If we're worried about China and Russia grabbing authentic, real ballots - why are we routing them through Chinese and Russian mail systems?

[Unagi]

That’s not what he’s saying.

He’s saying there will be agents here mailing in (stolen batches of real) ballots, and making it look like Biden won.

[Paingod]

That explains the slowdown at the USPS, then. He's trying to dig out the moles that have been working there for a decade, planned a pandemic, and now get to rig the election by snatching hundreds of thousands of ballots before they get to each address.

[Roman]

That explains the slowdown at the USPS, then. He's trying to dig out the moles that have been working there for a decade, planned a pandemic, and now get to rig the election by snatching hundreds of thousands of ballots before they get to each address.

Genius! Genius I tell you! He's been wise to their game all along!

[Carpet_pissr]

That explains the slowdown at the USPS, then. He's trying to dig out the moles that have been working there for a decade, planned a pandemic, and now get to rig the election by snatching hundreds of thousands of ballots before they get to each address.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90538378/wh ... in-ballots

That article is not even touching on all the other subtleties going on at USPS under the new guy (who has massive investments worth millions in companies that compete with USPS). [Wapo] "It also asks Whitcomb to review the finances of DeJoy and his wife, Aldona Wos, the nominee for ambassador to Canada. The couple’s holdings include between $30.1 million and $75.3 million in assets in USPS competitors or contractors, according to a financial disclosure Wos filed with the Office of Government Ethics when she was nominated. Postal Service mail processing contractor XPO Logistics — which acquired DeJoy’s company New Breed Logistics in 2014 — represents the vast majority of those holdings. Their combined stake in competitors UPS and trucking company J.B. Hunt is roughly $265,000."

From Fortune magazine: "Trump-backed postmaster general plans to slow mail delivery"

He's already removed lots of equipment from post offices around the country that allow them to process mass quantities of mail (sorters, etc). Heard an interview yesterday from a postal union worker that said things have shifted dramatically, VERY quickly. Their primary goal of "deliver ALL the mail, every day" is no longer that, because it's not possible now with the new rules and management in place (no overtime, etc).

This is not new. Trump or likely some Wormtongue smarter than Trump has put many people at the heads of federal agencies who are diametrically opposed (either by $$ or by lawsuits/principles) to those agencies. And it's not to make then leaner and meaner and better (which would have been the now extinct Republican ideal and probably reasoning). He basically just Ron Swansoned the USPS.

[NPR]
"Still, shippers aren't certain what the changes DeJoy is implementing will mean for their businesses. Art Sackler is manager of the Coalition for a 21st Century Postal Service, a group of companies that rely on the post office, including Amazon, Hallmark and others.

ART SACKLER: Having potentially a material change, if you like, without any kind of consultation is a disappointment and hopefully was just a mistake or a mix-up. It looks as if what they're proposing has the potential to do everything you just said - to delay mail, to have that mail that is being delayed accumulate from day to day.

NAYLOR: The unions representing Postal Service employees say they haven't met with DeJoy or been consulted about the changes either. Mark Dimondstein is president of the American Postal Workers Union.

MARK DIMONDSTEIN: So the union and the people that we represent - postal workers in general - are absolutely opposed to any policies that just slow down the mail in the name of whatever the name is - cost-cutting, in this case. It's about service. It's not the United States postal business. It's the United States Postal Service."

[WAPO]
But the changes worried postal analysts, who say the tone of DeJoy’s first eight weeks and his restructuring have recast the nation’s mail service as a for-profit arm of the government, rather than an essential service.

“He keeps referring to the USPS as ‘our business.’ But he’s been appointed postmaster general. You don’t run a business,” said Philip Rubio, a history professor at North Carolina A&T State University and a former postal worker. “He’s not accountable to shareholders. He’s accountable to the American people and Congress.”

[YellowKing]

There's this common line of thinking that has run through the administration for nearly everything, and it's the philosophy that people are motivated enough by political views to break the law/risk their job, etc. for very trivial gains. It's another bit of projection - Trump doesn't understand a world in which people have morals, because he has none.

in reality, even, for the sake of argument, you found a way to commit voter fraud on such a level that it could actually swing an election, you would not be doing that just because you wanted your party to win. You would have to be getting some substantial financial gain from it.

I guess what I'm trying to say, which is restating the obvious, is that Trump's proposed motivations for voter fraud make no sense. Unless you can clearly show a financial benefit from engaging in voter fraud (and keep in mind, this would require coordination among hundreds if not thousands of like-minded criminals), your case falls apart. As every detective knows, you gotta have motive.

[malchior]

They are taking an institution with 90+% approval and trying to destroy it transparently. Anecdotally we've noticed a drastic change in mail performance. We've started seeing days where we don't get mail at all now and then all at once get a few days worth. We had at least 2 birthday cards go missing in June. A mailer from my dentist took a week to get to me...postmarked at the post office inside town. I spoke to my mailman. He is old school and likes to talk to the customers. He said they should just paint the trucks brown since they essentially are doing parcels all day.

[El Guapo]

Seems like "Trump is destroying the Post Office and delaying prescription deliveries to veterans in order to enrich the Postmaster General and steal the election" should be a winning political message, at least.

[Blackhawk]

I applied for mail-in ballots for me and my son a while back. I'm starting to regret that now.

[Paingod]

I applied for mail-in ballots for me and my son a while back. I'm starting to regret that now.

I was planning to vote in person before I heard about the USPS. I just wish I lived in a state that matters. Maine split 3 to 1 on Electoral votes in favor of Clinton last time. Even if all 1.3 million of us turn out and vote Democrat, Trump losing that last single Electoral won't sway much.

[Blackhawk]

That's my one consolation. Indiana is at +15 points for Trump. Whether I vote in person, mail in my ballot to be counted, or mail in my ballot and have it 'misplaced', the result is the same.

And yet it's my son's first time voting. I hate to think that his vote might go uncounted, valuable or not.

[Defiant]

I applied for mail-in ballots for me and my son a while back. I'm starting to regret that now.

I was planning to vote in person before I heard about the USPS. I just wish I lived in a state that matters. Maine split 3 to 1 on Electoral votes in favor of Clinton last time. Even if all 1.3 million of us turn out and vote Democrat, Trump losing that last single Electoral won't sway much.

First of all, one electoral vote can be important.

Second of all, even if you're in a state that is firmly red or firmly blue, your vote still matter if it helps give Biden a bigger popular vote victory, which in turn can help prevent claims that the election was "rigged" and could help defeat Trumpism as a political philosophy.

[Jaymann]

Here is what I don't get about the USPS slowdown strategy:

If say the split is 55% Biden to 45% Trump, and you reduce that number of votes cast by mail, don't the percentages stay the same? I suppose you could selectively slow down in strong Democratic areas, but I'm not sure how you do that at the national level.