Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[El Guapo]

We may be getting an actual Republican primary in 2020.

In addition to the already announced Bill Weld, it seems Joe Walsh and Mark Sanford are going to announce runs soon, John Kasich has been visiting New Hampshire, and Jeff Flake is starting to get some pressure to step into the race.

It may not be the most inspiring field, but it's something.

There's no way this goes anywhere. Trump's popularity is, what, 80% among Republicans?

Pretty sure Walsh's campaign is just some kind of grift.

Jeff Flake is a punchline.

I've read a couple of columns arguing that the GOP will dump Trump in a heartbeat if the economy nosedives before next summer. Republicans have no love or loyalty to the man and will not blindly go down with his ship; the economy is his only net favorable area -- take that away and he gets crushed. Very likely just wishful thinking, but keep an eye on Mitt anyway. He'll quickly sweep these other guys aside if the cards fall that way.

It's a good reminder that Dems need something better than just "who can beat Trump?".

Yeah, there's some value to the GOP in having an escape hatch which is short of impeachment if the floor falls out before mid-2020. But that's mostly a fantasy - even if the economy starts to go into recession early next year and there are a couple more scandal bombshells, even then the chance that someone else beats Trump in a GOP primary is .0005%.

FWIW, I still think Trump will die before the election...probably not something you want to base your strategy on, though.

Why is that? Obviously he's getting old and isn't in tremendous shape, but odds are that he drops dead before Nov. 2020 (when he has access to great medical care) seem vanishingly small.

[malchior]

Yeah, there's some value to the GOP in having an escape hatch which is short of impeachment if the floor falls out before mid-2020. But that's mostly a fantasy - even if the economy starts to go into recession early next year and there are a couple more scandal bombshells, even then the chance that someone else beats Trump in a GOP primary is .0005%.

It feels exactly like a fantasy because it is. The "Republicans" have been completely co-opted and the never Trumpers have been largely purged. He owns the base lock, stock, and barrel. Pretty much literally. Even the ones he is legitimately harming badly right now. Unless the man is in the ground he'll be the nominee.

Edit: This is reads harsher than I want it to be. Main point is that taking the ball off 'getting rid of Trump' is foolish. If he drops dead, the existential risk to the nation goes down dramatically. There is still massive amounts of damage and we at best probably return to obstruction politics. Targeting the wrong Republican is pretty small fish at this scale of risk.

[Isgrimnur]

Ooh! Ooh! Actuarial tables!

Donald Trump - 70 years old on inaugration day - Death Probability

70	2.3528%
71	2.5693%
72	2.8041%
73	3.0567%

That leaves us with a 89.6440% chance that he doesn't die in the next four years.
Small sample size, undiagnosed or hidden medical conditions, etc.

[Kraken]

We may be getting an actual Republican primary in 2020.

In addition to the already announced Bill Weld, it seems Joe Walsh and Mark Sanford are going to announce runs soon, John Kasich has been visiting New Hampshire, and Jeff Flake is starting to get some pressure to step into the race.

It may not be the most inspiring field, but it's something.

There's no way this goes anywhere. Trump's popularity is, what, 80% among Republicans?

Pretty sure Walsh's campaign is just some kind of grift.

Jeff Flake is a punchline.

I've read a couple of columns arguing that the GOP will dump Trump in a heartbeat if the economy nosedives before next summer. Republicans have no love or loyalty to the man and will not blindly go down with his ship; the economy is his only net favorable area -- take that away and he gets crushed. Very likely just wishful thinking, but keep an eye on Mitt anyway. He'll quickly sweep these other guys aside if the cards fall that way.

It's a good reminder that Dems need something better than just "who can beat Trump?".

Yeah, there's some value to the GOP in having an escape hatch which is short of impeachment if the floor falls out before mid-2020. But that's mostly a fantasy - even if the economy starts to go into recession early next year and there are a couple more scandal bombshells, even then the chance that someone else beats Trump in a GOP primary is .0005%.

FWIW, I still think Trump will die before the election...probably not something you want to base your strategy on, though.

Why is that? Obviously he's getting old and isn't in tremendous shape, but odds are that he drops dead before Nov. 2020 (when he has access to great medical care) seem vanishingly small.

1. Obese, poor diet, doesn't exercise, old. I'd add stress, but he seems to thrive on that.
2. Millions of people with guns hate him passionately, and he makes frequent public appearances.

[LordMortis]

I don't accept that he doesn't exercise. He's a septuagenarian golfing several days a week. Even being chauffeured in cart that's acceptable for someone his age to keep active.

[Kraken]

"Golf is a good walk spoilt." - Anonymous (but usually attributed to Mark Twain)

Trump, of course, has exorcised the exercise portion of the game. He subscribes to the "battery theory" of exercise that was popular in the Victorian era: We are all born with a finite amount of energy, and exercise squanders it. So while he undeniably plays a ridiculous amount of golf, he extracts the minimum possible benefit from it.

[Isgrimnur]

Trump, of course, has exorcised the exercise portion of the game. He subscribes to the "battery theory" of exercise that was popular in the Victorian era: We are all born with a finite amount of energy, and exercise squanders it. So while he undeniably plays a ridiculous amount of golf, he extracts the minimum possible benefit from it.

And yet they were into the most pedestrian pursuits.

[YellowKing]

Can you imagine being a Secret Service agent who has to be willing to take a bullet for that piece of shit? There's not enough money in the world...

[LordMortis]

Can you imagine being a Secret Service agent who has to be willing to take a bullet for that piece of shit?

Nope. The end.

My turn. Can you imagine being a good Samaritan who throws him a flotation device if you saw him drowning?

[Jaymann]

Can you imagine being a Secret Service agent who has to be willing to take a bullet for that piece of shit?

Nope. The end.

My turn. Can you imagine being a good Samaritan who throws him a flotation device if you saw him drowning?

I would toss him one with USS John S. McCain stamped on it.

[LordMortis]

[El Guapo]

Can you imagine being a Secret Service agent who has to be willing to take a bullet for that piece of shit?

Nope. The end.

My turn. Can you imagine being a good Samaritan who throws him a flotation device if you saw him drowning?

I would toss him one with USS John S. McCain stamped on it.

Then at the last minute you pull it away and make a "thumbs down" at him.

[YellowKing]

Can you imagine being a good Samaritan who throws him a flotation device if you saw him drowning?

Phil Collins already answered that one for me:

Well if you told me you were drowning, I would not lend a hand
I've seen your face before my friend, but I don't know if you know who I am
Well I was there and I saw what you did, I saw it with my own two eyes
So you can wipe off that grin, I know where you've been
It's all been a pack of lies

[LordMortis]

(That song began playing in my head as I was typing)

[hepcat]

The Nikki Haley, out of the blue tweet in which she seems to be saying that there's no truth to a rumor that Trump wants to dump Pence in favor of herself is...odd. Considering that it's not really a big rumor, and that it happened two months ago, is what makes it weird. It's almost like she wants you to know that she could take Pence's place.

Although I would love to see Pence's soul get crushed when Trump betrays him. It's only a matter of time. Trump betrays anyone who doesn't bear his last name...well, anyone bearing his last name who ISN'T one of his trophy wives, of course.

[LordMortis]

Trump betrays anyone who doesn't bear his last name...well, anyone bearing his last name who ISN'T one of his trophy wives, of course.

Or his brother... And his brother's children...

Enough of the false rumors. Vice President Pence has been a dear friend of mine for years. He has been a loyal and trustworthy VP to the President. He has my complete support

She then added "I would support him in every way possible flying to Indy on the Tax Payer's dime to pay for an NFL game so he could use his position to be filmed getting up and leaving as a protest to anthem protestors looking to provide a voice to racial inequality in the way the law is enforced and to the NFL for allowing such things. The very same NFL who would not sell Greenland a football team the President."

[El Guapo]

Enough of the false rumors. Hepcat has been a loyal co-forum poster for years. He has been a loyal and trustworthy shepherd for the Paste Pot Pete IP rights for many years. He has my complete support, and there is no truth to the incredibly false rumors that Sony is going to place me in charge of the Paste Pot Pete film.

[Smoove_B]

Why does Mike Pence always look like he's about to introduce legislation to outlaw the X-Men?

It's been years but this internet observation still cracks me up.

[hepcat]

Enough of the false rumors. Hepcat has been a loyal co-forum poster for years. He has been a loyal and trustworthy shepherd for the Paste Pot Pete IP rights for many years. He has my complete support, and there is no truth to the incredibly false rumors that Sony is going to place me in charge of the Paste Pot Pete film.

Sadly, there is truth to the rumors that I'm just an alternate identity for Rip to post under while he clears his name of all charges that he took over 500 "up pants" photos of Karl Rove back in 2005 with a comically oversized shoe camera.

[malchior]

McConnell without irony is complaining about the talks about ending the filibuster since it is protecting us from the whims of the far left. Cool story, Moscow Mitch. I have no doubt history will remember him as one of the worst American leaders in his generation. Most Senators are generally forgotten but I have a feeling he will live on in infamy.

[Z-Corn]

Can you imagine being a good Samaritan who throws him a flotation device if you saw him drowning?

Phil Collins already answered that one for me:

Well if you told me you were drowning, I would not lend a hand
I've seen your face before my friend, but I don't know if you know who I am
Well I was there and I saw what you did, I saw it with my own two eyes
So you can wipe off that grin, I know where you've been
It's all been a pack of lies

[LordMortis]

McConnell without irony is complaining about the talks about ending the filibuster since it is protecting us from the whims of the far left. Cool story, Moscow Mitch. I have no doubt history will remember him as one of the worst American leaders in his generation. Most Senators are generally forgotten but I have a feeling he will live on in infamy.

McConnell will be remembered as the cross generational worst American of our time.

That said, he's always been protective of the filibuster and only attacked its use by democrats not it's existence. He's live through cyclical politics enough to know that he needs that tool. Go back and look through the embarrassment of of his proudest moment all the way through the embarrassment of the process of installing Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

[Zarathud]

11% actuarial chance of death. Those are better odds than Trump’s election.

[Isgrimnur]

I didn't even know Seth Moulton was running.

I also don't know who he is.

War hero wunderkind from MA. Possibly the most conservative D in the field, he's a man with a big ego. (Not my congressman, and I don't much like him.)

And now he's not:

“I think it’s evident that this is now a three-way race between Biden, Warren and Sanders, and really it’s a debate about how far left the party should go,” he told The New York Times. He planned to announce his decision in a speech Friday to the Democratic National Committee.

Moulton was one of the few candidates not to make the debate stages in June and July. Recently, his campaign seemed ready to stay in the race, even if Moulton didn’t qualify for the debates in September and October.
...
Moulton will run for reelection to the House.
...
But the congressman is perhaps best known for his opposition to Nancy Pelosi’s second bid to be Speaker of the House.
...
Retired General Stanley McChrystal told MSNBC that he would endorse Moulton for his “character” and “personal competence ... to shape and lead an honest good team.”

[Defiant]

Former GOP congressman Joe Walsh announces he's running for president

[Jaymann]

Former GOP congressman Joe Walsh announces he's running for president

He's just an ordinary average guy.

[Jeff V]

Former GOP congressman Joe Walsh announces he's running for president

He's just an ordinary average guy.

But life's been good to him so far.

[$iljanus]

Former GOP congressman Joe Walsh announces he's running for president

He's just an ordinary average guy.

But life's been good to him so far.

He lost his license, now he can't drive. But at least he has a limo, rides in the back.

[hepcat]

I want to applaud his new found morality, but Walsh has a history of being as bad as Trump himself in many ways. I suspect that he’s changing his tune not out of any real sense of remorse for his past behavior, but because he thinks it will garner supporters.

...er...I mean

So he got himself an office, gold records on the wall

[LordMortis]

I want to applaud his new found morality, but Walsh has a history of being as bad as Trump himself in many ways. I suspect that he’s changing his tune not out of any real sense of remorse for his past behavior, but because he thinks it will garner supporters.

...er...I mean

So he got himself an office, gold records on the wall

That was his proposed national anthem.

He was a writein in 1980 along with Pat Paulsen who promised everyone Vernor's.

[pr0ner]

Well then.

[Jaymann]

I wonder if Bernie got a bump from going on Joe Rogan.

[El Guapo]

I wonder if Bernie got a bump from going on Joe Rogan.

The poll is not so much a Bernie Bump as a Biden collapse.

That said, the poll kind of screams outlier, so I'm going to wait for further polls before I make anything of this. If Biden didn't lose 13 points during the 'touchy-feely' mini-scandal and didn't lose 13 points after his lackluster first debate performance, there's zero reason to think that he lost 13 points in the past week or so. This could well be an indicator that Biden's support is slipping, but there's not much reason to believe that it's suddenly this bad.

[Defiant]

[rittchard]

I have to say I've always been skeptical of polls where very little context is provided, but seriously what is the value of a poll of 298 people for a national race and how does it get so much attention? Not to mention we have no idea who or where or how these 298 people were chosen. I saw some other poll recently where at least they had like over 1000 people and there was a spreadsheet showing the make up of the people who took it. Not that 1000 is that many more, but at least they had samples of people from different states, sex, race, etc.

[rittchard]

I wonder if Bernie got a bump from going on Joe Rogan.

The poll is not so much a Bernie Bump as a Biden collapse.

That said, the poll kind of screams outlier, so I'm going to wait for further polls before I make anything of this. If Biden didn't lose 13 points during the 'touchy-feely' mini-scandal and didn't lose 13 points after his lackluster first debate performance, there's zero reason to think that he lost 13 points in the past week or so. This could well be an indicator that Biden's support is slipping, but there's not much reason to believe that it's suddenly this bad.

I agree, but that said, I don't know if anyone else already posted this:



They keep calling Biden's mistakes "gaffes" and perhaps I am overly sensitive because I am watching my mom age similarly, but the mumbling and looks of confusion he gets look more like early onset Alzheimer's to me, as opposed to just mis-speaking.

Is anyone else worried that this is our clear front-runner? I know everyone keeps saying it's early, which I guess it is, but his condition is only going to get worse as it gets more stressful. No wonder his wife was asking people to just support him even if they liked someone else lol.

[Defiant]

I have to say I've always been skeptical of polls where very little context is provided, but seriously what is the value of a poll of 298 people for a national race and how does it get so much attention?

It's got value and it is from a reputable pollster, but it is a low number for a national race (I could understand it for a state poll) and a high margin of error. It's more useful when used in combination with other polls than by itself, since, given the margin of error, Biden, Warren or Sanders could be ahead by as much as 10 points (probably more likely Biden, though, given that it's already hard to buy a 13 point move for Biden given that we haven't seen much happen (in the news) that would suggest such a big jump in the polls.

And the reason it probably got more attention than it deserves is because it was such a big change and gives the narrative (for those that want it) that it's a three way tie.

Not to mention we have no idea who or where or how these 298 people were chosen.

You can check out the methodology in the poll, but it was a random sampling over landline and cell phones.

Here's the demographics of those polled:

38% Male
62% Female

31% 18-34
31% 35-54
38% 55+

53% White
18% Black
20% Hispanic
9% Asian/Other

59% No degree
41% 4 year degree

Comparing it to the 2016 IL exit polls (the state that's supposed to mirror the demographics of the Democratic party the most), it looks like blacks may be underrepresented (they were 28% in 2016). So if it's off, that might be why (especially since Biden is strong among African Americans)

Edit: other sources put African Americans as approximately 24% of the Democratic party.

[Kraken]

Is anyone else worried that this is our clear front-runner? I know everyone keeps saying it's early, which I guess it is, but his condition is only going to get worse as it gets more stressful. No wonder his wife was asking people to just support him even if they liked someone else lol.

Beyond just getting tongue-tied, Biden comes off as tired and vague. "Sleepy Joe" sticks because it fits. One hopes that primary voters set him aside early; he won't fall until votes are cast. This is Joe's final act and he's in it until the curtain falls.

[Defiant]

Well, that poll sure aged well:

Morning Consult 8/19-8/25:

Biden 33%
Sanders 20%
Warren 15%

[Holman]

In US Senate news, Georgia's Johnny Isakson (R) just announced that he is stepping down at the end of 2019. He has Parkinson's.

The R Governor will appoint a replacement, who serves until the next regularly scheduled general election (and not, apparently, until the scheduled end of the resigning senator's term).

This means that Georgia will have two US senate races next year. This seems like a good thing for the Dems.