Afghanistan finally moves into the Lose column

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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Max Peck »

The E-11A missions are flown out of Kanadhar, so it almost certainly wasn't taking off or landing in Ghazni.

I still find the wording that the Taliban spokesman used to be interesting. He made no claim that they shot it down, but rather that they "tactically crashed" it. It could well be that they are making an opportunistic false claim, but it's also possible that they are referring to something like sabotage.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Grifman »

Freyland wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:52 pm The Chinese getting deniable field testing of their lasers?
Field testing of relatively heavy bulky and not likely very mobile lasers in remote Afghanistan? Hardly likely.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by malchior »

Max Peck wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:53 pm The E-11A missions are flown out of Kanadhar, so it almost certainly wasn't taking off or landing in Ghazni.

I still find the wording that the Taliban spokesman used to be interesting. He made no claim that they shot it down, but rather that they "tactically crashed" it. It could well be that they are making an opportunistic false claim, but it's also possible that they are referring to something like sabotage.
Or worse they got someone on the plane. That seems really unlikely but I suppose it is possible.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Freyland »

Grifman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm
Freyland wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:52 pm The Chinese getting deniable field testing of their lasers?
Field testing of relatively heavy bulky and not likely very mobile lasers in remote Afghanistan? Hardly likely.
I don't recall them being described as either. I believe that was one of the problems we faced with them being fielded.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Grifman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm
Freyland wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:52 pm The Chinese getting deniable field testing of their lasers?
Field testing of relatively heavy bulky and not likely very mobile lasers in remote Afghanistan? Hardly likely.
And major powers don't "field test" by committing acts of war. They have plenty of planes and drones at home they can test on.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

Peace agreement signed by US and Taliban.
Under the terms of the deal, the U.S. commits to withdrawing all of its military forces and supporting civilian personnel, as well as those of its allies, within 14 months. The drawdown process will begin with the U.S. reducing its troop levels to 8,600 in the first 135 days and pulling its forces from five bases.

The rest of its forces, according to the agreement, will leave "within the remaining nine and a half months."

The Afghan government also will release up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners as a gesture of goodwill, in exchange for 1,000 Afghan security forces held by the Taliban.
The initial drawdown brings US troop strength back to where it was when Trump seized office. Still to be achieved: cease-fire and power-sharing between the Taliban and the puppet government, with talks scheduled to begin next month.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Blackhawk »

So... draw?
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

If it unfolds as planned, I'd call it a draw. If the Taliban is happily enforcing Sharia a year or two down the line, it's a loss.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

I seem to recall the GOP losing their shit when Obama released five Taliban fighters in a prisoner exchange. Now it's 5,000?

The deal seems perfectly timed to allow trump to declare PeaceWithHonor for the election and to delay any Taliban resurgence until a few months afterwards.

But someone check me here: in today's announcement (at the Coronavirus presser), did Trump not say that killing terrorists would now be the responsibility of the Taliban? I'd swear I heard it and then heard him repeat it.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Max Peck »

If I had to guess, I'd say he means that the Taliban (rather than the USA?) will be fighting the Islamic State elements present in Afghanistan.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Max Peck wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:31 pm If I had to guess, I'd say he means that the Taliban (rather than the USA?) will be fighting the Islamic State elements present in Afghanistan.
The safer and sadder assumption is that he doesn't know the three major factions in Afghanistan (US+allies, the Taliban, and the Kabul government), and that he thinks we've been simply been at war with "Afghanistan" the whole time.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

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"The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban" really rolls off the tongue. I thought it was bad enough to see it in the title of the agreement, but they use it every single time that the document refers to the Taliban.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Skinypupy »

Holman wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:49 pm I seem to recall the GOP losing their shit when Obama released five Taliban fighters in a prisoner exchange. Now it's 5,000?
Yeah...about that.
Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, has rejected a Taliban demand for the release of 5,000 prisoners as a condition for talks with the Afghan government and civilians.

His remarks come against the backdrop of the difficulties US negotiators face in shepherding the Afghan government and Taliban towards intra-Afghan negotiations, according to western diplomats.

“The government of Afghanistan has made no commitment to free 5,000 Taliban prisoners,” Mr Ghani said on Sunday, the day after a US-Taliban deal was signed in Qatar to start a political settlement aimed at ending America’s longest war.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Max Peck wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:38 pm "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban" really rolls off the tongue. I thought it was bad enough to see it in the title of the agreement, but they use it every single time that the document refers to the Taliban.
"Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" will be on Afghan money before next summer.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by malchior »

Fighting has already resumed. We made a truce that didn't have sign off from the Government of Afghanistan. Clown shoes diplomacy.


#UPDATE A deadly blast shattered a period of relative calm in Afghanistan on Monday, as the #Taliban told fighters to resume operations against Afghan security forces -- just days after signing a deal with Washington aimed at ushering in a new era of peace
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Pyperkub »

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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:41 pm If it unfolds as planned, I'd call it a draw. If the Taliban is happily enforcing Sharia a year or two down the line, it's a loss.
I'd peg the rough odds as 20% chance of the former, 80% chance of the latter.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Trump has already made a slip in one of his White House lawn press appearances, saying that the Taliban will be "in charge."

We're already seeing the erasure of the Kabul government.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Isgrimnur »

BBC
Two Afghan politicians - who both claim they won the presidential election - have declared themselves president at rival inauguration ceremonies.

The electoral commission says incumbent Ashraf Ghani narrowly won September's vote, but Abdullah Abdullah alleges the result is fraudulent.
...
Experts warned the current political rivalry would "gravely affect the government's position in the upcoming intra-Afghan talks", which are due to begin on Tuesday.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

Peace accord remains cloaked to most Americans.
WASHINGTON — In a secure facility underneath the US Capitol, members of Congress stopped by all last week to review two classified annexes to the Afghan peace accord with the Taliban that set the criteria for a critical element of the agreement: What constitutes enough “peace” for the United States to withdraw its forces?

The Taliban have read the annexes. Nonetheless, the Trump administration insists that the secret documents must remain secret, though officials have struggled to explain why to skeptical lawmakers.

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper, in congressional testimony, appeared unaware of — or seemed unwilling to discuss — the secret annexes just days before the agreement was signed. And lawmakers who have paid the most attention to the peace plan also openly express frustration with the lack of a mechanism for verifying compliance that they believe Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had promised.

At the core of the two documents, according to people familiar with their contents, is a timeline for what should happen over the next 18 months, what kinds of attacks are prohibited by both sides and, most important, how the United States will share information about its troop locations with the Taliban.

While it may sound odd that the US military is sharing troop locations with its enemy of 18 years, the goal is to give the Taliban information that would allow it to prevent attacks during the withdrawal. Pompeo described the annexes last week as “military implementation documents.”

That is part of it, but they appear to be much more.

Because the documents lay out the specific understandings between the United States and the Taliban — including what bases would remain open under Afghan control — the details are critical to judging whether the United States is making good on its promise to leave only if conditions allow, or whether it is just getting out.

The State Department has struggled to explain why the criteria for the terms, standards and thresholds for the US withdrawal could be known to the adversary but not to the American people or allies. In response to questions from The New York Times, the State Department issued a statement on Friday saying that the documents remained classified because “the movement of troops and operations against terrorists are sensitive matters.”

“We do not want, for example, ISIS to know those details,” the statement added, referring to Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan.

But another reason for the secrecy, according to several people familiar with the matter, is that the annexes leave the markers for peace remarkably vague, making it far from certain that the Taliban must convert into a counterterrorism force — as President Trump suggested a week ago — or that they are required to make complete peace with the elected government of President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan.

In fact, as written, they appear to give Trump, or his successor, enormous latitude to simply declare that the war is over and leave. But many of Trump’s aides suggest that US counterterrorism forces and a significant CIA presence should remain in the country. How that will be resolved within the US government, with the Taliban and with the Kabul government remains to be seen, and any resolution likely will prove difficult.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Max Peck »

Who could have predicted that peace talks might collapse if they hinged on concessions that a principle party had no say in negotiating?

Afghanistan peace deal: Taliban walk out of 'fruitless' talks
The Taliban have walked out of landmark talks which were supposed to help pave the path to peace in Afghanistan.

A spokesman for the militant group said the first face-to-face discussions with the government had proved "fruitless".

Talks have broken down over a prisoner swap agreed between the US and Taliban.

It was meant to be a step towards ending the war, but the Taliban say Afghan officials are trying to delay the release, while officials say the militants' demands are unreasonable.

According to Matin Bek, a member of the government's negotiating team, the Taliban wanted the release of 15 commanders believed to be involved in what were referred to as big attacks.

"We cannot release the killers of our people," he said.

But the Taliban spokesman accused President Ashraf Ghani's administration of delaying the prisoner release "under one pretext or another".

The government says it's willing to release up to 400 low-threat Taliban prisoners as a goodwill gesture in return for a considerable reduction in violence.

The prisoner swap - which formed part of the US-Taliban deal signed in February that did not involve the government - was supposed to be a gesture of trust between the two sides.

However, Mr Ghani refused to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners under the terms of the US deal, saying the Afghan government had made no such agreement. Instead, he offered the conditional release of 1,500 prisoners.

Arguments over the swap - which would also have seen 1,000 pro-government forces released by the Taliban - delayed the start of the talks, due to begin on 10 March, until 1 April.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNN
The Trump administration's peace deal with the Taliban was dealt yet another blow Tuesday as the Afghan government announced it was resuming offensive operations against the insurgent group following a spate of deadly terrorist attacks.

Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani announced the resumption of offensive operations during a televised address to the nation that took place in the wake of several deadly terrorist attacks, including one that targeted a maternity hospital that killed at least 13 people, including two newborn babies.

"I strongly condemn recent attacks on a hospital in Kabul and Nangarhar province which killed a number of innocent people including women and children," Ghani said Tuesday.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Isgrimnur »

H.R. McMaster: Buy my book!
President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said U.S.-backed peace talks in Afghanistan are doomed to end in "failure" and warned the risk of another 9/11-style attack on America is "very high."

The U.S. is "in many ways more at risk today than we were on Sept. 10, 2001," McMaster told USA TODAY in the first print interview for his new book, "Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World."

In a wide-ranging conversation, McMaster lamented the politicization of the military, said the Trump administration has mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and expressed grave concern about a "destructive cycle" in American politics that has weakened the country.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

Remember Afghanistan? Florida Man had committed the US to full withdrawal by May 1. Biden is going to reschedule that to 9/11, and Republicans are having conniptions.
The choice of 9/11 seems ill-considered to me.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Jaymann »

OTOH 9/11 just may draw attention to this forgotten war. And the Repugnicans have conniptions on an hourly basis. It's time to bring the troops home.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:15 pm Remember Afghanistan? Florida Man had committed the US to full withdrawal by May 1. Biden is going to reschedule that to 9/11, and Republicans are having conniptions.
The choice of 9/11 seems ill-considered to me.
This is echoes of the Iraq drawdown when Obama announced that he planned to leave Iraq on Bush's time table. Much of the same cast had meltdowns then too.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:39 am
Kraken wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:15 pm Remember Afghanistan? Florida Man had committed the US to full withdrawal by May 1. Biden is going to reschedule that to 9/11, and Republicans are having conniptions.
The choice of 9/11 seems ill-considered to me.
This is echoes of the Iraq drawdown when Obama announced that he planned to leave Iraq on Bush's time table. Much of the same cast had meltdowns then too.
That's kind of their whole brand.

We're not looking at the fall of Saigon here. The medium- to long-term outlook favors Taliban dominance, which is obviously sub-optimal. But so is stationing US troops there forever. Is their ongoing presence really stabilizing, when the government we're backing is a kleptocracy? One could argue the opposite. This one's been in the "Lose" column for a long time, and postponing its resolution indefinitely won't raise it to a draw.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Jaymann »

Jaymann wrote: Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:36 pm
Holman wrote:
Jaymann wrote:In another year or two it will be longer than the US was in Vietnam. That sounds like a win to me.
Didn't Afghanistan (2001-) pass Vietnam (1965-1973) five years ago?

The bigger difference is troop numbers. Almost 3.5 million U.S. soldiers served in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam years. A little over 850,000 have been through Afghanistan.
Give it another 20 years.

And we had troops in Vietnam 1961 - 1975.
Vietnam = 14 years.

Afghanistan = 20 years (at least).
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Jeff V »

Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:23 am This one's been in the "Lose" column for a long time, and postponing its resolution indefinitely won't raise it to a draw.
It's been a lose for everyone warring there since Alexander the Great.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by El Guapo »

Jeff V wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:42 am
Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:23 am This one's been in the "Lose" column for a long time, and postponing its resolution indefinitely won't raise it to a draw.
It's been a lose for everyone warring there since Alexander the Great.
That's mostly overstated. It's not really that Afghanistan is so special. Rather, I think it reflects the difficulty of maintaining control over another country against an insurgency when you are an "outsider" occupier.

I have mixed feelings about withdrawal. It's probably the right decision, insofar as there doesn't seem to be much of a prospect of a clear win, and the alternative seems to be low level occupation and conflict for the indefinite future. This probably means a decent chance of the Taliban reclaiming Afghanistan, though.

I hope that we take a lot of Afghan refugees who helped us in the conflict, though I strongly suspect that we're going to abandon and screw over a lot of them.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

The "graveyard of empires" trope really reflects that Afghanistan is a crossroads for competing empires and not resource-rich enough to spawn empires of its own. It's a perennial frontier, never a center.

More empires have risen and fallen in (what we now call) China and its neighborhood than anywhere else, but we don't call East Asia a "graveyard" because every fall sees the rise of a competitor or successor state ready to leap on the advantages of the region. It's the same story in Europe and the Mediterranean basin.

Afghanistan should probably be called the "backyard of empires," something like that.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Jaymann »

How about the "Vietnam of Empires."
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Jaymann wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:21 pm How about the "Vietnam of Empires."
Vietnam actually has a rich independent imperial history and has resisted northern (i.e. Chinese) incursions for hundreds of years. Even during the Cold War, Hanoi never submitted to dominance from Beijing.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:39 pm The "graveyard of empires" trope really reflects that Afghanistan is a crossroads for competing empires and not resource-rich enough to spawn empires of its own. It's a perennial frontier, never a center.
Afghanistan was recently discovered to be mineral-rich.
Afghanistan is believed to be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. The value of these resources has been roughly estimated between $1-3 trillion.

Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.
Outsiders try to turn it into a nation, when it is really a collection of competing tribes and warlords. Creating and propping up a national government never works there. The only thing that unites them (after a fashion) is repelling invaders.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Holman »

Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:50 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:39 pm The "graveyard of empires" trope really reflects that Afghanistan is a crossroads for competing empires and not resource-rich enough to spawn empires of its own. It's a perennial frontier, never a center.
Afghanistan was recently discovered to be mineral-rich.
Afghanistan is believed to be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. The value of these resources has been roughly estimated between $1-3 trillion.

Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.
Outsiders try to turn it into a nation, when it is really a collection of competing tribes and warlords. Creating and propping up a national government never works there. The only thing that unites them (after a fashion) is repelling invaders.
Right.

But those resources are for late-capitalist Apple/Microsoft supply chains, not The-Sun-Never-Sets political empires. It's a different game.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:57 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:50 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:39 pm The "graveyard of empires" trope really reflects that Afghanistan is a crossroads for competing empires and not resource-rich enough to spawn empires of its own. It's a perennial frontier, never a center.
Afghanistan was recently discovered to be mineral-rich.
Afghanistan is believed to be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. The value of these resources has been roughly estimated between $1-3 trillion.

Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.
Outsiders try to turn it into a nation, when it is really a collection of competing tribes and warlords. Creating and propping up a national government never works there. The only thing that unites them (after a fashion) is repelling invaders.
Right.

But those resources are for late-capitalist Apple/Microsoft supply chains, not The-Sun-Never-Sets political empires. It's a different game.
Extracting them also requires vast infrastructure that doesn't exist -- roads, industry, power -- and those things require stability. Afghanistan could be a rich nation someday, if it could become a nation. Since it has no interest in doing so, outside powers will keep going back.
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Grifman »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:02 pmSo... draw?
No, I suspect it will end up being more like "lose".
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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raydude
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by raydude »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:37 pm H.R. McMaster: Buy my book!
President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said U.S.-backed peace talks in Afghanistan are doomed to end in "failure" and warned the risk of another 9/11-style attack on America is "very high."

The U.S. is "in many ways more at risk today than we were on Sept. 10, 2001," McMaster told USA TODAY in the first print interview for his new book, "Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World."

In a wide-ranging conversation, McMaster lamented the politicization of the military, said the Trump administration has mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and expressed grave concern about a "destructive cycle" in American politics that has weakened the country.
My bet is probably not. The thing about sneak attacks is, they never come from the same place twice. More than likely the next 9/11 will come from someplace other than Afghanistan. And even if it did come from Afghanistan, the monetary and body count calculus is that we're better off in terms of dollars and deaths with short retaliatory strikes in a 9/11 aftermath than from occupying a country for 20 years.
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Grifman
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Grifman »

Frankly, we should just tell the Taliban to make an equitable peace or else. From the air we could make the country ungovernable by them. Taliban head sets up in the presidential palace - boom, there he goes. Taliban military sets up an HQ - boom, there goes their top general. I know it's a crazy thought but we could literally prevent them from acting as a functioning government if we wanted.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Grifman
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Re: Win, Lose, or Draw in Afghanistan?

Post by Grifman »

raydude wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:42 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:37 pm H.R. McMaster: Buy my book!
President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said U.S.-backed peace talks in Afghanistan are doomed to end in "failure" and warned the risk of another 9/11-style attack on America is "very high."

The U.S. is "in many ways more at risk today than we were on Sept. 10, 2001," McMaster told USA TODAY in the first print interview for his new book, "Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World."

In a wide-ranging conversation, McMaster lamented the politicization of the military, said the Trump administration has mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and expressed grave concern about a "destructive cycle" in American politics that has weakened the country.
My bet is probably not. The thing about sneak attacks is, they never come from the same place twice. More than likely the next 9/11 will come from someplace other than Afghanistan. And even if it did come from Afghanistan, the monetary and body count calculus is that we're better off in terms of dollars and deaths with short retaliatory strikes in a 9/11 aftermath than from occupying a country for 20 years.
I don't think the Taliban wants any part of Al Quada or ISIS in the future. They don't want the competition nor do they want to risk it all again.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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