Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Paingod]

Missouri Governor Mike Parson, an ardent anti-masker, has tested positive for Covid along with his wife.

There needs to be an anti-masker registry, so they always fall in the back of the line at hospitals. I don't specifically want them to die, but I don't want their idiocy to create a situation where someone who did the right thing ends up dead because they didn't have a bed for them that these people occupy instead.

[Smoove_B]

Didn't want the most recent Ed Yong piece to get shuffled off - related to the heart damage debate. Points for mentioning my favorite virus:

But a virus doesn’t need to be in the heart to wreak havoc. It can cause indirect damage by attacking the lungs and starving the heart of oxygen, or by triggering an inflammatory immune response that affects the entire body. Even viruses that primarily affect the gut (like enteroviruses) or the respiratory system (like adenoviruses) can cause myocarditis in this way, when molecules produced at the site of infection travel through the bloodstream and inflame the heart. Coxsackie B, for example, is the most widely studied cause of viral myocarditis, but is primarily a gut virus that spreads through fecal contamination; it can infect the heart, but it does much of its damage via the immune system.

Probably the critical observation of the entire article that needs to be shouted from the rooftops when people mumble it's no worse than the flu:

The worry is that COVID-19 is doing whatever it’s doing at scale. The original SARS epidemic of 2003 infected only 8,000 people, killed slightly fewer than 800, and was over in three months; its impact on the heart was “lost in the historical bin of the scientific literature,” says Checchia. SARS-CoV-2, by contrast, has infected at least 31 million people and killed at least 960,000. Its effects are thousands of times more obvious than its predecessor’s. Even if it’s no worse than any other viral illness, its sheer scope means that a tiny risk of severe long-term problems would still translate to a lot of failing hearts.

...

When millions of people become infected, rare events become commonplace, and phenomena that might typically have gone unnoticed suddenly become prominent. This creates a deceptive sense that the disease in question is stranger than most, and has uprooted the world because there’s something inherently odd about it.

[ImLawBoy]

Coxsackie B

When does her new album drop?

[Smoove_B]

Coxsackie B

When does her new album drop?

Hand, Foot and Mouth Comin' Atcha
Q4 2020

[Isgrimnur]

You're mistaken. Coxsackie B is a group band.

The various members of the Coxsackie B group were discovered almost entirely in the United States, appearing originally in Connecticut, Ohio, New York, and Kentucky, although a sixth member of the group has been found in the Philippines.

[$iljanus]

One of the things I love about immunology is that you don’t have to change anything to come up with a cool band name like Natural Killer Cells, Cytotoxic T Cells, The Interlukins and Cytokine Storm!

[Smoove_B]

So nation, how's it going?

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.

By the numbers: The U.S. is now averaging roughly 43,000 new cases per day, a 16% increase from a week ago.

Prepare.

[YellowKing]

To give you some glimmer of hope, this is a great Politico article on how the pandemic ends:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... nds-421122

TLDR- reasonable estimate is that enough Americans have been vaccinated by end of 2021 to start severely slowing spread. However, we're probably looking at 2 years before we're back to what we consider "normal" activity (large group gatherings, etc.).

Hopefully a Biden administration will be aggressive enough on testing and masking to accelerate what will be a very long drawn out process under Trump.

[noxiousdog]

So nation, how's it going?

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.

By the numbers: The U.S. is now averaging roughly 43,000 new cases per day, a 16% increase from a week ago.

Prepare.

Seems like schools opening is the primary reason for this, no? Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't been larger.

[Smoove_B]

The biggest issue with the vaccination will save us mentality is the broad assumption that enough people will accept and submit to vaccination in order for this to stop being a problem. How many people need to be vaccinated? No one knows and anyone claiming authority here is only guessing. Best guesses I've seen suggest 70-80% vaccination rates might be enough, but when a disease is running freely, the initial levels required might need to be higher.

My point with all this is that I fear there's going to be significant push-back on vaccinating and if we don't get the overall numbers high enough, there are going to be community pockets throughout America that are going to continue to drive spread. Here we can hope that the vaccine offers protection to those immunized (similar to the flu), but cluster outbreaks might very well continue indefinitely.

I legitimately believe that Fall 2021 is the earliest we can expect things to lift, yes. But so much depends on what happens over the next 2 months and then up until inauguration day. And how effective the vaccine is. And how we're going to deliver it. And...

I'm legit terrified still, overall.

[Smoove_B]

Seems like schools opening is the primary reason for this, no? Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't been larger.

I'm only following NJ closely and so far no transmission on school property has been reported or documented. Instead, it's people being exposed outside of school and then because of their association with the school and needing to be actively monitored, we're finding out about their health status.

I don't know if school spread is occurring in other states; I'd be surprised to hear it wasn't as it's only a matter of time before it does happen in NJ.

Everything I've been reading over the last month+ has suggested it's small, informal gathering that are driving spread right now. Indoor dining, birthday parties. Family gatherings.

Our level of infection is slowly rising here in NJ and I don't think it's tied to schools being open or even indoor dining or gym use. Everything seems to fit with the national trend - informal, indoor gatherings. As expected, mask use (where it's required, when it's required) really seems to be a mitigating factor here as well.

[noxiousdog]

Seems like schools opening is the primary reason for this, no? Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't been larger.

I'm only following NJ closely and so far no transmission on school property has been reported or documented. Instead, it's people being exposed outside of school and then because of their association with the school and needing to be actively monitored, we're finding out about their health status.

I don't know if school spread is occurring in other states; I'd be surprised to hear it wasn't as it's only a matter of time before it does happen in NJ.

Everything I've been reading over the last month+ has suggested it's small, informal gathering that are driving spread right now. Indoor dining, birthday parties. Family gatherings.

Our level of infection is slowly rising here in NJ and I don't think it's tied to schools being open or even indoor dining or gym use. Everything seems to fit with the national trend - informal, indoor gatherings. As expected, mask use (where it's required, when it's required) really seems to be a mitigating factor here as well.

Our school district has a dashboard where we can watch. So far, 116 cases total since August 19. There's roughly 90k people either enrolled or working for the district.

[Blackhawk]

So nation, how's it going?

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.

By the numbers: The U.S. is now averaging roughly 43,000 new cases per day, a 16% increase from a week ago.

Prepare.

Indiana prepared this week by going to Stage 5, the final stage of reopening. Everything is at full capacity. Masks are still required, as is 'social distancing' (which will still be ignored), but everything else is officially back to 'normal', including nursing homes being required to have visitation.

Semper paratus!

[Kraken]

My point with all this is that I fear there's going to be significant push-back on vaccinating and if we don't get the overall numbers high enough, there are going to be community pockets throughout America that are going to continue to drive spread. Here we can hope that the vaccine offers protection to those immunized (similar to the flu), but cluster outbreaks might very well continue indefinitely.

I read that, in light of recent politicization of the vaccine, the number of Americans saying that they will get vaccinated has fallen from >70% to <50%.

Also, as part of the rushing process, the current phase 3 trials only need to show that the vaccine can prevent at least 50% of mild cases, and not necessarily any severe cases. It's possible that the first vaccine out of the gate will only offer weak protection. It's also possible that development and testing of more robust vaccines will be abandoned if the world jumps on the first one available.

Unless we get very lucky, the first vaccine isn't going to be a magic bullet.

[malchior]

Meanwhile in FL, DeSantis is full speed ahead on full capacity bar & restaurant service. There is only a steady stream of 100 people dying per day there, hospitalization numbers that are steady but down from the peak, and an elderly population. What can go wrong?

[LawBeefaroni]

It's possible that the first vaccine out of the gate will only offer weak protection. It's also possible that development and testing of more robust vaccines will be abandoned if the world jumps on the first one available.

Unless we get very lucky, the first vaccine isn't going to be a magic bullet.

I doubt testing and R&D gets abandoned. Too much money being thrown at it and too much at stake to just settle for the first one that comes along.

Plus every country with a drug company wants a home-sourced vaccine.

[Smoove_B]

I read that, in light of recent politicization of the vaccine, the number of Americans saying that they will get vaccinated has fallen from >70% to <50%.

I'm one of the relatively few Americans that received the Lyme vaccination when it was first released...and subsequently removed for mysterious reasons. No, I don't have any superpowers. With that, I won't even consider touching something the Trump administration has had any part in unless there's overwhelming independent scientific community approval for the effort. I have zero faith in anything Trump related or adjacent.

Unless we get very lucky, the first vaccine isn't going to be a magic bullet.

Even if we get lucky, it's highly unlikely to be a magic bullet - that's what's crazy. Above and beyond having enough people vaccinate, how effective is the vaccine? How long does immunity last? No one knows. 9+ months in and we're *still* just getting started with the experiment.

[Smoove_B]

This blows my mind:

California will allow public health officials to participate in a program to keep their home addresses confidential, a protection previously reserved for victims of violence, abuse and stalking and reproductive health care workers.

The executive order signed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom late Wednesday is a response to threats made to health officers across California during the coronavirus pandemic. More than a dozen public health leaders have left their jobs amid such harassment over their role in mask rules and stay-at-home orders.

[Isgrimnur]

People suck.

[LawBeefaroni]

This blows my mind:

California will allow public health officials to participate in a program to keep their home addresses confidential, a protection previously reserved for victims of violence, abuse and stalking and reproductive health care workers.

The executive order signed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom late Wednesday is a response to threats made to health officers across California during the coronavirus pandemic. More than a dozen public health leaders have left their jobs amid such harassment over their role in mask rules and stay-at-home orders.

Toothless theater. If someone really wants their home address they'll get it. The problem isn't availability of private information, it's the wave of anti-science and ignorance along with a propensity towards violence among a growing population.

Obfuscation is not security.

[Isgrimnur]

Obfuscation is security. It just shouldn't be the only security.

[Combustible Lemur]

Seems like schools opening is the primary reason for this, no? Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't been larger.

I'm only following NJ closely and so far no transmission on school property has been reported or documented. Instead, it's people being exposed outside of school and then because of their association with the school and needing to be actively monitored, we're finding out about their health status.

I don't know if school spread is occurring in other states; I'd be surprised to hear it wasn't as it's only a matter of time before it does happen in NJ.

Everything I've been reading over the last month+ has suggested it's small, informal gathering that are driving spread right now. Indoor dining, birthday parties. Family gatherings.

Our level of infection is slowly rising here in NJ and I don't think it's tied to schools being open or even indoor dining or gym use. Everything seems to fit with the national trend - informal, indoor gatherings. As expected, mask use (where it's required, when it's required) really seems to be a mitigating factor here as well.

Our school district has a dashboard where we can watch. So far, 116 cases total since August 19. There's roughly 90k people either enrolled or working for the district.

TBF that number represents a max of 20% of the actual numbers. They derive from self reports only. So, 20% symptomatic (at least with students) assuming 100% self- reporting.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[LawBeefaroni]

Obfuscation is security. It just shouldn't be the only security.

I was thinking of the other definition of security.

1: the quality or state of being secure: such as
a: freedom from danger : SAFETY
b: freedom from fear or anxiety
c: freedom from the prospect of being laid off

You're right:

4
a: something that secures : PROTECTION
b(1): measures taken to guard against espionage or sabotage, crime, attack, or escape
(2): an organization or department whose task is security

Probably would have been less ambiguous if I said, "obfuscated isn't secured."

[malchior]

Security is built in layers. Securing data by hiding it is the necessary first step in the information security portion of their security plan. We probably aren't privy to other layers (if they exist). If the threat is serious they have to worry about public travel, daily habits, electronic surveillance, the whole nine.

[Smoove_B]

All of that stuff is up for debate (and outside my wheelhouse). But I can tell you no one I know in the field has ever communicated fear of bodily harm for themselves or their family because of a public health order they enacted. Hell, we have people railing on social media now against our NJ governor for extending the public health emergency another 30 days. I have bad news for them - it's going to happen again at the end of October. And November. And December. The idea that as a public health official I'd pass an ordinance requiring masks and three days later my house is targeted is just off-the-charts insane; it's unthinkable. I know the medical field is going to be drained by all this, but I'm not sure public health is going to survive another nationwide mass-exodus like was seen ~2008.

[Alefroth]

Time to privatize public health.

[Little Raven]

WTF, Minnesota?

A survey focusing on COVID-19 has ended in Minnesota after multiple survey teams were confronted by residents in towns across the state, according to Dan Huff, an assistant commissioner with the Minnesota Department of Health.

Huff said the incidents led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to withdraw teams from the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) project. The CASPER surveys were meant to build a better understanding of how COVID-19 is spreading in the state and how it is affecting its residents.

According to Huff, CASPER teams with people of color were subjected to racial slurs while in the field.

Huff also reported an incident in Eitzen on Sept. 15 where a CASPER team was surrounded by three men, one of whom was armed. During the incident, the three men refused to accept their identification as public health workers.

[Smoove_B]

I can almost beat it - WTF Kentucky:

One of Lexington’s COVID-19 testing sites has been vandalized with phrases that appear to question the validity of testing.

Police were called Sunday morning to the Walgreens location on Executive Drive, which now is used only for drive-through COVID-19 testing. Graffiti had been painted in large red letters, including phrases like “False Positives,” “PCR Tests Fake,” “Power to the People” and a website linked to a COVID-19 conspiracy theory. A smaller spray-painted “Q” could also be seen on the building. It’s not clear if it was intended as a reference to QAnon, a pro-Trump set of conspiracy theories about Democratic pedophiles and sex trafficking.

The vandalism is under investigation, according to Lexington police spokesman Sgt. Donnell Gordon.

Laboratory building vandalism against PCR tests? Who does that?

[Holman]

Laboratory building vandalism against PCR tests? Who does that?

I refuse to search, but I'd bet money that "False Positives" is a catchphrase/hashtag for the anti-masker crowd.

[wonderpug]

Laboratory building vandalism against PCR tests? Who does that?

I refuse to search, but I'd bet money that "False Positives" is a catchphrase/hashtag for the anti-masker crowd.

If you think back to elementary school, this is basically the same as the "NUH-UH!" counter-argument strategy.

[Isgrimnur]

Lancet

More than 600 incidents of violence, harassment, or stigmatisation took place against health-care workers, patients, and medical infrastructure in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said in a statement on Aug 18.

These incidents were probably only the “tip of the iceberg”, with many others unrecorded, Maciej Polkowski, the head of the ICRC's Health Care in Danger initiative, told The Lancet. “Unfortunately, these figures were not a surprise because violence is often exacerbated by emergencies”, he said. “We know from cross-sectional studies that the majority of health workers have experienced violence in the workplace that varies from country to country and their thresholds of violence.”

The ICRC said that 611 incidents were recorded between Feb 1 and July 31, 2020. Although patients and medical infrastructure were often targeted, 67% of incidents were directed at health-care workers. More than 20% involved physical assaults, 15% were incidents that the ICRC classed as fear-based discrimination, and 15% were verbal assaults or threats.

[Smoove_B]

Hadn't seen that, study. Good grief.

Also in stories you can't make up, come join the Missouri Governor and his wife:

Just two days after announcing that they have contracted the coronavirus, Republican Gov. Mike Parson and his wife, Teresa Parson, have reassured Missourians that they still plan to host their annual fall festival next month.

"WE WILL BE PROCEEDING WITH THIS EVENT," the first lady wrote in all caps on Twitter.

...

The event is scheduled to take place on Oct. 3, which falls four days short of a 14-day quarantine window.

What would it take ($) to get Ron White saying "You can't fix stupid" after these stories appear in the news?

[LawBeefaroni]

"But I'm different!"

[Smoove_B]

The only thing that will make that story better for me is if the ghost of Herman Cain tweets how awesome the event is and that everyone should go.

[Smoove_B]

This isn't a parody account, right?

I find it very interesting how the show “Masked Singer” hit America in January 2019, a little bit over a year before they started forcing us all into masks.

It’s almost like they were beginning to condition the public that masks were “normal” and “cool”.

The media is demonic.

[Smoove_B]

The third step is going to be a doozy.

Pandemic Era day 274. USA. 22% increase in #COVID19 cases in the last 2 weeks. Still >750 deaths a day. Worrisome for the 3rd step in this epi curve. Reports of health system strain.

For the nerds, the is a *textbook* propagated epidemic curve. Text.book.

[Holman]

This isn't a parody account, right?

Only in the sense that Lorraine is a QAnon loon running for Nancy Pelosi's seat.

[LawBeefaroni]

Pandemic Era day 274. USA. 22% increase in #COVID19 cases in the last 2 weeks. Still >750 deaths a day. Worrisome for the 3rd step in this epi curve. Reports of health system strain.

For the nerds, the is a *textbook* propagated epidemic curve. Text.book.

The third step is going to be a doozy.

Promise?

[malchior]

The third step is going to be a doozy.

Pandemic Era day 274. USA. 22% increase in #COVID19 cases in the last 2 weeks. Still >750 deaths a day. Worrisome for the 3rd step in this epi curve. Reports of health system strain.

For the nerds, the is a *textbook* propagated epidemic curve. Text.book.

I just watched this video to get a glimpse into what it means. I found it helpful and it isn't overly long.

[Kraken]

Yup, fasten yer seatbelts, kids, cuz we're off to the races again. Four states report record increases. Minnesota reported 1,418 new cases, Montana 343 new cases, South Dakota reported 579 and Wisconsin had 2,902 new cases.

Winter is coming.