MLB 2019 Offseason Thread

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:21 pm The headline is the suspension, but there are also the $5M fine and loss of 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2020 and 2021. The draft picks will smart.

You usually don't worry about draft picks in baseball but Houston built their team that way and more and more teams are doing that.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:24 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:21 pm The headline is the suspension, but there are also the $5M fine and loss of 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2020 and 2021. The draft picks will smart.

But will they be able to trade up three spots in the following rounds?

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:24 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:24 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:21 pm The headline is the suspension, but there are also the $5M fine and loss of 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2020 and 2021. The draft picks will smart.
But will they be able to trade up three spots in the following rounds?

What are the odds they'd find such a generational talent that would make them want to do so?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:26 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:18 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:16 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 pm Astros GM and Manager suspended for 1 year for sign stealing.

Damn.
Well! That investigation has been completed, and the wrongdoers have been apprehended and fully punished. Job well done MLB! Time to close down the sign-stealing investigation and enjoy a well deserved rest. No need to continue investigating!
Psst:
Discipline for Red Sox manager Alex Cora is coming and is going to be harsh, sources tell ESPN.

No need! The wrongdoers have already been fully punished. Mission accomplished.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:39 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:26 pm No need! The wrongdoers have already been fully punished. Mission accomplished.

Can you imagine losing something analogous to Houston loss of draft picks after you have had a few years for Dombrowski to empty your farm system?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:10 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 pm Astros GM and Manager suspended for 1 year for sign stealing.

Damn.

Now also fired.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:12 pm

I'm going to guess Cora gets longer than a 1-year suspension. And the Red Sox will follow the Astros precedent and fire him, too.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:18 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:10 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 pm Astros GM and Manager suspended for 1 year for sign stealing.

Damn.
Now also fired.

Yup.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb- ... re-coming/

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:19 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:39 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:26 pm No need! The wrongdoers have already been fully punished. Mission accomplished.
Can you imagine losing something analogous to Houston loss of draft picks after you have had a few years for Dombrowski to empty your farm system?

No worries, we're going to trade the 2018 MVP, still in his prime, in order to get a few draft picks and save some of John Henry's yacht money.

Everything is fine.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:27 pm

I just know that we are four years post Dombrowski trying to keep the Mike Illitch dream of a world series win alive and we're still a mess. Dombrowski cashed in every chip we had trying to win a world series even after it was obvious the window was closed. That's how he does business. He's a great deal maker for winning now. Tomorrow, well... There's always someone else trying to win now.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:43 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:27 pm I just know that we are four years post Dombrowski trying to keep the Mike Illitch dream of a world series win alive and we're still a mess. Dombrowski cashed in every chip we had trying to win a world series even after it was obvious the window was closed. That's how he does business. He's a great deal maker for winning now. Tomorrow, well... There's always someone else trying to win now.

Oh, I know. I will say that he did deliver a World Series title team in Boston, and came close in Detroit. So he is good at building a team like that...just at a long term price.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:21 pm

Well at least Darvish is vindicated and as far as I'm concerned as a Dodger fan, their WS 'win' is absolutely tainted. If Darvish pitches to his potential without sign stealing, there's a chance for us in both the games he started. I guess the Cubs knew something and that's why they signed Darvish to a long term contract despite how he appeared to pitch in the WS.

Personally I'd like to have seen the Astros banned from the post season but that's probably too complicated. Happy to see them severely punished.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:30 pm

Another thing that struck me is that MLB is absolving the players who participated in this completely. I don't think I agree with that. At the end of the day, as a player and as an athlete, you should not get away with cheating. The players acted on information they knew was cheating and they should be punished for that in my opinion.

What do you guys think?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:34 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:30 pm Another thing that struck me is that MLB is absolving the players who participated in this completely. I don't think I agree with that. At the end of the day, as a player and as an athlete, you should not get away with cheating. The players acted on information they knew was cheating and they should be punished for that in my opinion.

What do you guys think?

Agree 100%. The problem is it's hard to quantify who benefitted and how much and take appropriate action. I don't think you can vacate wins (can you?) or titles but you could hand out suspensions.

Edit:
Also, I'm reminded to say, "Fuck you, Yuli Gurriel!"

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:44 pm

I'm not sure the sign stealing mattered. Logically it should, but the game results make it questionable.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:45 pm

I think there's also potential problems with the collective bargaining agreement that might prevent them from suspending players. I don't know how it's structured, but things seem to be pretty well spelled out for PED use and domestic violence. It's possible the CBA doesn't allow them to suspend in this case.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:51 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:30 pm Another thing that struck me is that MLB is absolving the players who participated in this completely. I don't think I agree with that. At the end of the day, as a player and as an athlete, you should not get away with cheating. The players acted on information they knew was cheating and they should be punished for that in my opinion.

What do you guys think?

I think they should fire all the coaches, suspend all the players for a year and vacate all wins in franchise history. The remaining teams in the AL West should then have a round-robin playoff to determine who plays in a replacement series. Then they should bulldoze the stadium and salt the earth.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:52 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:45 pm I think there's also potential problems with the collective bargaining agreement that might prevent them from suspending players. I don't know how it's structured, but things seem to be pretty well spelled out for PED use and domestic violence. It's possible the CBA doesn't allow them to suspend in this case.

They can suspend for on-field fighting. The aforementioned Gurriel got suspended for his gesture. I assume they can be suspend for cheating. Although technically, receiving info someone else cheated to get...that would be a tough one.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:56 pm

I assume the CBA expressly contemplates suspensions for fighting. The gesture thing is probably under some kind of "behavior detrimental to MLB" or something, which I imagine they could use for the players here. The logistics of it would be tough, though. Do you suspend all players? Do we know for sure that all players used the cheating? What about guys who used it every at bat vs. someone who just did it once? How long are we suspending players? That would be a big challenge.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:24 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:56 pm I assume the CBA expressly contemplates suspensions for fighting. The gesture thing is probably under some kind of "behavior detrimental to MLB" or something, which I imagine they could use for the players here. The logistics of it would be tough, though. Do you suspend all players? Do we know for sure that all players used the cheating? What about guys who used it every at bat vs. someone who just did it once? How long are we suspending players? That would be a big challenge.

I know, but it just doesn't feel right that players got away with cheating. Basically what the MLB is saying is that it's fine if all y'all cheat.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:25 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:44 pm I'm not sure the sign stealing mattered. Logically it should, but the game results make it questionable.

It definitely mattered. The thought after the WS was over was that Darvish was tipping his pitches. Well apparently it didn't matter if he was tipping his pitches or not, they knew what he was going to pitch anyway.

Actually I don't understand how you even can say that. The Astros won that WS in 7 games, the last of which Darvish started and was blown up.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:02 pm

The trick only worked in the Astros park. So Game 7 results are all on Darvish.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:10 pm

In 2017, the Astros were 48 and 33 @ Home and 53 and 28 on the road. If it really mattered, I'd expect the splits to be tilted heavily towrd home.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:17 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:02 pm The trick only worked in the Astros park. So Game 7 results are all on Darvish.

Darvish pitched game 3 at the Astros and he was terrible then. But yes, the Game 7 results are on Darvish.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:20 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:10 pm In 2017, the Astros were 48 and 33 @ Home and 53 and 28 on the road. If it really mattered, I'd expect the splits to be tilted heavily towrd home.

If MLB didn't think it mattered I think Hinch would not have been banned? Or is all this an 'on principle' kind of thing? I think knowing what's coming has got to matter in baseball.We all know that only knowing what's coming is not going to always determine the result of a baseball game. If you score no runs you are going to lose for example

. But it's got to be a significant advantage to know what's coming.

I don't know, I'm not happy about this at all. I'm not satisfied that MLB did all it could, and I'm not satisfied that it won't happen again.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:27 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:18 am

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:20 pm
stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:10 pm In 2017, the Astros were 48 and 33 @ Home and 53 and 28 on the road. If it really mattered, I'd expect the splits to be tilted heavily towrd home.
If MLB didn't think it mattered I think Hinch would not have been banned? Or is all this an 'on principle' kind of thing? I think knowing what's coming has got to matter in baseball.We all know that only knowing what's coming is not going to always determine the result of a baseball game. If you score no runs you are going to lose for example . But it's got to be a significant advantage to know what's coming.

I don't know, I'm not happy about this at all. I'm not satisfied that MLB did all it could, and I'm not satisfied that it won't happen again.

Here's a more detailed analysis.

Basically, the statistical evidence that the scheme benefited the Astros in the regular season is borderline non-existent. The evidence that it helped them in the playoffs is stronger, but even there it's hard to say because of small sample size issues.

The strongest evidence that it benefited the Astros is mainly that they did it for an extended period of time, and you would assume that they wouldn't do it unless they *thought* it was giving them an advantage, given that they knew that it was against the rules. But still...you would expect that it would show up somehow in the data if it was.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:48 am

I can certainly understand that sign stealing may be more of a long term thing. And the Astros could have been attributing their success to sign stealing when in fact it was simply good play. But it was against the rules and just like they thought it gave them an advantage, the rest of the league thinks so as well, which is why they keep trying to legally do it.

At the same time many knowledgeable people don’t believe that steroids help baseball players, that the effect of steroids is very different on baseball players than it is on track athletes (where steroids unequivocally help). So players have been known to believe things that aren’t actually true.

What would be interesting is if baseball embraced letting the players know which pitch was coming by having the called pitch shown on the stadium board just before it was thrown. According to that article the game wouldn’t change but you’d have a hard time convincing anyone that that was true no matter what the stats.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 am

Ripple Effects of the Sign Stealing Investigation

Pretty interesting. The other question is how far this extends:

Other Teams

All signs suggest that MLB would have been happy not to stir up this sign-stealing story. MLB knew that the Red Sox used technology to steal signs in 2017, and Jeff Passan reported in 2018, per anonymous MLB players, that the Astros had passed signs via trash can. MLB subsequently upped its preventative measures in response to sign-stealing rumors swirling around the sport. Yet not until Fiers went on record in The Athletic’s initial report did MLB grudgingly launch an investigation. Even then, Manfred stated, “I have no reason to believe it extends beyond the Astros at this point in time,” which was far-fetched at the time, considering that The Athletic’s report cited a source who described the practice as “pervasive.” And not until The Athletic linked the 2018 Red Sox to sign stealing did MLB acknowledge that publicly. Tom Verducci reported that when Manfred called Red Sox owner John Henry to inform him of the investigation, Manfred said, “I’ve got no choice here,” which doesn’t make it sound as if Manfred was eager to follow the sign-stealing trail.

For consistency’s sake, though, MLB will have to follow that trail if it leads anywhere else. It’s quite likely that the Astros and Red Sox weren’t the only two teams engaging in at least low-level forms of illegal sign stealing; every team has a video room and must have been tempted to use it improperly. On Monday, MLB player Logan Morrison suggested that the Dodgers and Yankees have also “used film to pick signs.” In 2018, members of the Brewers suggested that the Dodgers were stealing signs. In November, BBWAA member Jeff Jones reported that multiple players had told him that the Brewers and Rangers have stolen signs electronically, and Yu Darvish fueled further speculation about the Brewers. None of that smoke has turned into fire, but it’s probably risky for any MLB fan base to proclaim its team pure or complain too loudly about losing to known sign stealers. That said, Manfred will have to be poked pretty hard for the league to acknowledge that the scandal extends beyond Boston and Houston.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:45 am

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:17 pm
stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:02 pm The trick only worked in the Astros park. So Game 7 results are all on Darvish.
Darvish pitched game 3 at the Astros and he was terrible then. But yes, the Game 7 results are on Darvish.

Which might suggest Darvish just didn't have it that series. I mean, it's not unheard of for a Dodgers' pitcher to have an off series.

But you're right that the sign stealing at least gives you something else to consider.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:18 am

Lorini wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:48 am I can certainly understand that sign stealing may be more of a long term thing. And the Astros could have been attributing their success to sign stealing when in fact it was simply good play. But it was against the rules and just like they thought it gave them an advantage, the rest of the league thinks so as well, which is why they keep trying to legally do it.

At the same time many knowledgeable people don’t believe that steroids help baseball players, that the effect of steroids is very different on baseball players than it is on track athletes (where steroids unequivocally help). So players have been known to believe things that aren’t actually true.

What would be interesting is if baseball embraced letting the players know which pitch was coming by having the called pitch shown on the stadium board just before it was thrown. According to that article the game wouldn’t change but you’d have a hard time convincing anyone that that was true no matter what the stats.

Yeah, clearly the Astros players as a group thought it gave them an advantage. And clearly some / many non-Astros players believe it as well. But at the same time the statistics can't be easily dismissed. We have the benefit of a known period where the Astros used electronic sign-stealing, and where they used it at home but not on the road. Which gives us a large pool of at bats and a control group of at bats to compare it to. It's not perfect data, but it's pretty good as data sets go.

It's also possible that it helped some batters more than others, and/or that it helped more vs. some pitchers than others, which could complicate things a bit.

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:21 pm

What's awesome (cheating isn't) is that this happened during the Dodgers vs Astros world series and now Dodger fans are up in arms. But they keep forgetting, they don't win in October. It's icing on the cake for me

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:23 pm

Yeah so hey, just put the damned signs out there for all to see and call it a day instead of trying to quash a wildfire that keeps spreading. I don't have an issue with that at all. If the Dodgers were filming signs then they need to be punished as well, although I'd be curious to find out what Manfred would do if like 25 teams were stealing signs. Would he ban 25 managers/GM's? That would change the landscape.

I think it's fairly clear that the Red Sox will need another manager this season for example.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:24 pm

naednek wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:21 pm What's awesome (cheating isn't) is that this happened during the Dodgers vs Astros world series and now Dodger fans are up in arms. But they keep forgetting, they don't win in October. It's icing on the cake for me

Like your team can even make it into the discussion by August

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:36 pm

Baseball is so schizophrenic about cheating.

This whole thing is crap. The players get off. Management gets railroaded, and the fans get hurt.

Great job, MLB.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:54 pm

Hrothgar · Post by **Hrothgar** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:30 pm

Yep, it's been a tough week to be a Houston sports fan. I wonder what the Rockets can do to make things worse? He says, hopefully sarcastically.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:37 pm

Cora: You can't fire me, I quit:

Alex Cora, who won the World Series in 2018 in his debut season as manager of the Boston Red Sox but has been linked this offseason to two sign-stealing schemes, has mutually agreed to part ways with the team.

In a statement released Tuesday, the Red Sox said given MLB's findings in the investigation into the Astros' sign-stealing "we collectively decided that it would not be possible for Alex to effectively lead the club going forward."

Cora, 44, led the Red Sox past the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games in 2018, a year removed from winning the World Series in Houston as Astros bench coach.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:36 pm

Hrothgar wrote:Yep, it's been a tough week to be a Houston sports fan. I wonder what the Rockets can do to make things worse? He says, hopefully sarcastically.

Hold my beer while I lose by 11 to the grizzlies.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:03 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:37 pm Cora: You can't fire me, I quit:

Alex Cora, who won the World Series in 2018 in his debut season as manager of the Boston Red Sox but has been linked this offseason to two sign-stealing schemes, has mutually agreed to part ways with the team.

In a statement released Tuesday, the Red Sox said given MLB's findings in the investigation into the Astros' sign-stealing "we collectively decided that it would not be possible for Alex to effectively lead the club going forward."

Cora, 44, led the Red Sox past the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games in 2018, a year removed from winning the World Series in Houston as Astros bench coach.

LOL you know what's better than this happening to the Dodgers in 2017 world series, it happened again in 2018... LOL