NFL 2019 - 20 Season with Playoffs

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:53 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:25 am They mentioned the hit several times, even saying that in the old days Wentz would have gone right back out and Collinsworth remembering hits like that that he got in his playing days. Yeah I was sorry to see that as well.

OK off the top of your head who is the only team to be in the top 8 from last year to this year?

Chiefs?

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:54 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:44 am I went an impressive 0-4 on the wildcard round. Next round all home teams are heavily favored. Anyone predict an upset? I will go with:

Seahawks over Packers

I don't see that as an upset. It all depends on which Rodgers shows up. I'm really hoping the Packers beat the hawks. Eagles couldn't score TD's in the redzone and that killed them. So many chances.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:02 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:48 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:44 am I went an impressive 0-4 on the wildcard round. Next round all home teams are heavily favored. Anyone predict an upset? I will go with:

Seahawks over Packers
I agree with that. What's the evidence that the Packers are better than the Seahawks?

Seahawks over Packers
Chiefs over Texans
Ravens over Titans
49ers over Vikings

Otherwise I think it's pretty likely that the other home teams will win. Not even sure what the second most likely upset would be. Maybe Texans over Chiefs given Deshaun Watson and Andy Reid's tendency to blow playoff games?

Packers are healthy, Seahawks aren't is the evidence. It may not be enough. It would still be my leading upset pick, followed by Texans over Chiefs (I don't trust the Chiefs defense a bit, and they also have a disturbing tendency to faceplant in the playoffs), then Vikings over Niners (Niners lack of playoff experience here, and maybe a bit of overconfidence - plus the injuries - missing Dee Ford has really hurt their pass rush in the latter half of the season). Ravens are the most solid option here.

Here's the order I have for upset likelihood:

1. Seahawks over Packers
2. Texans over Chiefs
3. Vikings over Niners
4. Titans over Ravens

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:42 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:00 am
gameoverman wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:38 pm You're not allowed to face guard receivers.
Incorrect. The rules specifically allow face guarding.

That's why DBs usually make a token effort to look back for the ball as they grab the receiver, to make it look like they were playing for the ball.
They look back because the contact rules are different if you are "playing the ball" versus playing the receiver. If you can make the case that the contact was due to going for the ball, it's not a penalty. If you make the same contact and never even try for the ball, it's a penalty.

Yeah I agree. By face guarding I meant the defender's sole focus is blocking the receiver's view of the ball, the defender is not looking to intercept or bat down the ball. In that case any contact won't usually be ruled 'incidental'. If the defender looks back for the ball then he can usually get cut slack for any incidental contact. I didn't realize face guarding itself is defined in the rules, so I guess I should stop referring to it that way unless I mean that specific definition.

The hit on Wentz was nothing out of the ordinary in my view. If you're a QB running with the ball, as opposed to sliding down, you are opening yourself up to getting hit like any other runner. Clowney was falling forward so it's hard for me to see any deliberate action in that, other than him hoping to land hard on Wentz. That's kind of what all tacklers do. Avoiding this kind of thing is why QBs have the slide option in the first place. You want extra yards? Be ready to pay for them.

edit: I think the Vikings are the likeliest upset winners. Texans would be next, substantially less likely, then the Seahawks even less likely. I give the Titans zero, yes zero, chance to upset.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:23 pm

naednek wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:53 pm
Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:25 am They mentioned the hit several times, even saying that in the old days Wentz would have gone right back out and Collinsworth remembering hits like that that he got in his playing days. Yeah I was sorry to see that as well.

OK off the top of your head who is the only team to be in the top 8 from last year to this year?
Chiefs?

You are correct! I thought the Packers were in last year's playoffs but nope.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:53 pm

So! I guess the Titans are for real! Some exciting ball to start the game.

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:08 pm

well that was a nice game! Defense Defense Defense.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:16 pm

Vikings were never in it. Kinda boring unless you’re a Niner fan

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:35 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:53 pm So! I guess the Titans are for real! Some exciting ball to start the game.

On the one hand, if the Titans beat the Ravens, it'll make me feel retroactively better about the Patriots, since the Patriots nearly beat the Titans. On the other hand, it will make me feel like the Patriots *could* have made a run if they had beaten the Titans.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:46 pm

I attended the game at the designated Niner bar in Dallas. They're apparently the 4th largest group in the country.

My hearing might recover by midweek.

Mawp!

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 pm

That Henry guy is amazing!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:24 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 pm That Henry guy is amazing!

Ryan Tannehill sure didn't beat the Patriots last week.

I was grimly amused during the 3Q of Patriots - Titans when they put up a "time since a Titan other than Henry gained yards for the TItans" stat, and it was something like 13 or 14 minutes.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:29 pm

I'm happy to see I still have my finger on the pulse of the NFL.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:31 pm

Titans wooo doing good.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:38 pm

Lamar Jackson picked a bad day to have a bad day.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:50 pm

gameoverman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:29 pm I'm happy to see I still have my finger on the pulse of the NFL.

Sir, This Is an Arby's.

Baroquen · Post by **Baroquen** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:55 pm

Well that sucked.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:17 am

I like how the announcer said this could make the Chiefs or Texans pretty happy as one of them will host the championship game. But it may just make them worry because they have to face the hottest team in the league in the Titans if so

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:20 am

I don’t think Harbaugh will be giving his first string a week off before the playoffs again. I think it’s a bad idea anyway but it was clear the team was rusty.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:34 am

The ball bouncing off that one Ravens receiver summed it up for me. How can he not be looking for the ball on that play? Considering it's at the end of the game and they need to score, he somehow just lets it bounce off him because he wasn't expecting it?

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:41 am

gameoverman wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:34 am The ball bouncing off that one Ravens receiver summed it up for me. How can he not be looking for the ball on that play? Considering it's at the end of the game and they need to score, he somehow just lets it bounce off him because he wasn't expecting it?

Looked to be a timing play and they weren’t on the same page. But that happens when things are falling apart, communication is rushed and things aren’t clear. I’m certain he didn’t deliberately go out there to have the ball bounce of him.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:08 am

Glad to see the chaos of no Pats and no Ravens. Titans just might be this year's Philly.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:08 am

I hope the Titans can take it all. I was really a fan in 1999 of them and Steve McNair (RIP). They lost by so little it was heartbreaking. They got to the playoffs through the early 2000s and have since been quiet so I quit following. Glad to see them back and hope for the best. Shoulda had that ring in 1999 though.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:35 am

Lorini wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:41 am
gameoverman wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:34 am The ball bouncing off that one Ravens receiver summed it up for me. How can he not be looking for the ball on that play? Considering it's at the end of the game and they need to score, he somehow just lets it bounce off him because he wasn't expecting it?
Looked to be a timing play and they weren’t on the same page. But that happens when things are falling apart, communication is rushed and things aren’t clear. I’m certain he didn’t deliberately go out there to have the ball bounce of him.

It looked to me on the replay like he was surprised when the ball hit him. It could be timing, but it also could be he didn't think it would be thrown to him. If he wasn't looking for the ball by that time on his route, when was he planning to look for it? The Ravens just didn't seem to be as focused on the game as the Titans did. I remember watching the Rams get bounced out of the playoffs year after year when I was a kid, usually by the Cowboys or Vikings, and it was just like this. The Rams would look good during the regular season and mediocre in the playoffs. In one NFC championship game they lost 37-7, that year they had a defense that was very stingy on giving up points. The Ravens were very Rams-ish today.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:35 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:24 pm
Lorini wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 pm That Henry guy is amazing!
Ryan Tannehill sure didn't beat the Patriots last week.

I was grimly amused during the 3Q of Patriots - Titans when they put up a "time since a Titan other than Henry gained yards for the TItans" stat, and it was something like 13 or 14 minutes.

You can be proud of the Patriots D in that game. Henry only ran for 182 yards!!

McNutt · Post by **McNutt** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:41 pm

Damn, KC special teams. At least try.

EvilHomer3k · Post by **EvilHomer3k** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:00 pm

That was the craziest half of football I have ever seen.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:30 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:53 pm So! I guess the Titans are for real! Some exciting ball to start the game.

If you can run the ball, get in the lead and then play some defense you will always have a chance.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:39 pm

Hopefully someone asked Bill O’Brien what the hell he was thinking with that fake punt in the first half on their own 35 yard line. Yes, the Chiefs had just scored, but Houston was still up 24 - 7 at that point. Giving the Chiefs a short field just allowed them to build up momentum. That play, more than any other IMO, changed the course of the game.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:42 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:39 pm Hopefully someone asked Bill O’Brien what the hell he was thinking with that fake punt in the first half on their own 35 yard line. Yes, the Chiefs had just scored, but Houston was still up 24 - 7 at that point. Giving the Chiefs a short field just allowed them to build up momentum. That play, more than any other IMO, changed the course of the game.

I would have fired him on the spot. Not even waited until the end of the game. Horrendous decision. Disqualifying.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:23 pm

When a game is 24-0 about the last thing you expect is a blowout - in the other direction!

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:42 pm

Jaymann wrote:When a game is 24-0 about the last thing you expect is a blowout - in the other direction!

No one expects that! Or the Spanish Inquisition!

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:01 pm

The Packers weren't that impressive but I think they looked solid. They made plays on offense and defense when needed, that bodes well for them. The Chiefs are going to be scarier to play now that they not only came from behind but also put up all those points. If you consider that a lot of those early points against them were due to uncharacteristic errors they made, the implication is that it won't happen again the rest of these playoffs.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:06 pm

So, I would think we are looking at a Niners-Chiefs Super Bowl.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:48 pm

Scuzz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:06 pm So, I would think we are looking at a Niners-Chiefs Super Bowl.

Seems like the most likely outcome. Though I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a Niners - Derrick Henry super bowl.

EvilHomer3k · Post by **EvilHomer3k** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:55 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:48 pm
Scuzz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:06 pm So, I would think we are looking at a Niners-Chiefs Super Bowl.
Seems like the most likely outcome. Though I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a Niners - Derrick Henry super bowl.

First. No. Please just not. That would be a blowout.
Second, I just don't see Tennessee matching KCs output. Mahomes is a completely different QB than Jackson.You could sell out on the pass and force them to run but I don't think that's possible with Kelce.
Third, I think it's much more likely that the Packers beat the 49ers than Ten beats KC. The Packers also destroyed the Vikings by playing good defense and running the ball. GB has a much better QB than SF does.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:14 am

I could see Tenn beating KC, although I’m sure KC will be favored by 10+ points. Throughout the season, KC’s biggest weakness has been their run defense. I’m not sure how they stop Henry. If Tenn can run the ball effectively and limit the amount of time Mahomes has the ball, they can definitely be in the game.

SF should also be a heavy favorite. They crushed the Packers earlier this year and GB has at times had trouble scoring points this year. I think Rodgers will need to have his best game of the season for them to win.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:36 am

The 49ers are favored by 7.5, I think Packers + 7.5 would be a good bet. And I would certainly take over 45 in Titans - Chiefs.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:09 am

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:36 am The 49ers are favored by 7.5, I think Packers + 7.5 would be a good bet. And I would certainly take over 45 in Titans - Chiefs.

Only 45? The over looks like a sure thing in that game.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:33 am

EvilHomer3k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:55 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:48 pm
Scuzz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:06 pm So, I would think we are looking at a Niners-Chiefs Super Bowl.
Seems like the most likely outcome. Though I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a Niners - Derrick Henry super bowl.
First. No. Please just not. That would be a blowout.
Second, I just don't see Tennessee matching KCs output. Mahomes is a completely different QB than Jackson.You could sell out on the pass and force them to run but I don't think that's possible with Kelce.
Third, I think it's much more likely that the Packers beat the 49ers than Ten beats KC. The Packers also destroyed the Vikings by playing good defense and running the ball. GB has a much better QB than SF does.

It is hard for me to see Tennessee matching KC's output as well. But then, I was confident that Baltimore was going to thrash Tennessee. If the Titans can beat the Ravens 28-12, then they're capable of beating KC as well. In fact, they did beat KC late during the regular season. And it's still early, but who knows, maybe Vrabel is an amazing coach.