Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

raydude wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:21 pm It's funny how simple returns that look amazing translate to something a little less so when you convert them to annualized returns.

For example, Amazon, which I bought in 2003. My online account shows a total gain of 14,559%, but that's a simple gain. When I run it through the calculations as shown here:
convert simple returns to annualized returns I get a 34% annualized return.

I'll still take it.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

raydude wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:21 pm It's funny how simple returns that look amazing translate to something a little less so when you convert them to annualized returns.

For example, Amazon, which I bought in 2003. My online account shows a total gain of 14,559%, but that's a simple gain. When I run it through the calculations as shown here:
convert simple returns to annualized returns I get a 34% annualized return.

I'll still take it.
34% annual is pretty damn amazing.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:42 am
raydude wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:21 pm It's funny how simple returns that look amazing translate to something a little less so when you convert them to annualized returns.

For example, Amazon, which I bought in 2003. My online account shows a total gain of 14,559%, but that's a simple gain. When I run it through the calculations as shown here:
convert simple returns to annualized returns I get a 34% annualized return.

I'll still take it.
34% annual is pretty damn amazing.
This. Start with $10k, contribute just $100/mo, wait 15 years, and you're a millionaire at 34% annual.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:31 pm This is our concern, Dude:

Aphria Is Becoming the Stock Market's Biggest Merger Arbitrage Play
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/ ... gn=article

And by concern, I mean, that the two stocks are apparently now so divergent, I wonder if that is in any way putting the merger itself at risk. Maybe Tilray says "hey, we don't need you anymore, Aphria!" and Bob's your uncle!

:think: :think:

I'm really struggling with the buying/selling/holding of this one, guys! Somebody push me in a direction.

(also, as I feared, at least as of now, my foolish venture into pre-market trading was ill-timed and foolish - down 11% from where I bought it pre-market) Thankfully I was not able to buy pre-market on margin in my other account for some reason (TD Ameritrade does show that the stock has margin limitations, so I guess that was it), so the adventure was pretty limited, with just a couple thousand dollars thrown in.

The associated chart, for reference:

tinyurl.com/1g3oclrj

Click to imbiggen
Enlarge Image
APHA is the better of the two this morning but man, pot sector is getting smoked.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:54 am
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:42 am
raydude wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:21 pm It's funny how simple returns that look amazing translate to something a little less so when you convert them to annualized returns.

For example, Amazon, which I bought in 2003. My online account shows a total gain of 14,559%, but that's a simple gain. When I run it through the calculations as shown here:
convert simple returns to annualized returns I get a 34% annualized return.

I'll still take it.
34% annual is pretty damn amazing.
This. Start with $10k, contribute just $100/mo, wait 15 years, and you're a millionaire at 34% annual.
Don't even have to contribute $100/mo and you'll get to millionaire in 16 years at 34% annual.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

POWW signs LOI to buy Gunbroker.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

pr0ner wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:55 am
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:54 am
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:42 am
raydude wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:21 pm It's funny how simple returns that look amazing translate to something a little less so when you convert them to annualized returns.

For example, Amazon, which I bought in 2003. My online account shows a total gain of 14,559%, but that's a simple gain. When I run it through the calculations as shown here:
convert simple returns to annualized returns I get a 34% annualized return.

I'll still take it.
34% annual is pretty damn amazing.
This. Start with $10k, contribute just $100/mo, wait 15 years, and you're a millionaire at 34% annual.
Don't even have to contribute $100/mo and you'll get to millionaire in 16 years at 34% annual.
Indeed. After I posted, I thought to myself that I shouldn't have even bothered with contributions, since they're not a significant driver of the growth in that case.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by coopasonic »

Initial $100 contributions are 12% annualized, so nothing to laugh at, but they start falling off quickly.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:11 am
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:31 pm This is our concern, Dude:

Aphria Is Becoming the Stock Market's Biggest Merger Arbitrage Play
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/ ... gn=article

And by concern, I mean, that the two stocks are apparently now so divergent, I wonder if that is in any way putting the merger itself at risk. Maybe Tilray says "hey, we don't need you anymore, Aphria!" and Bob's your uncle!

:think: :think:

I'm really struggling with the buying/selling/holding of this one, guys! Somebody push me in a direction.

(also, as I feared, at least as of now, my foolish venture into pre-market trading was ill-timed and foolish - down 11% from where I bought it pre-market) Thankfully I was not able to buy pre-market on margin in my other account for some reason (TD Ameritrade does show that the stock has margin limitations, so I guess that was it), so the adventure was pretty limited, with just a couple thousand dollars thrown in.

The associated chart, for reference:

tinyurl.com/1g3oclrj

Click to imbiggen
Enlarge Image
APHA is the better of the two this morning but man, pot sector is getting smoked.
Yep. I should have sold my crazyily bought pre-market position in APHA yesterday - but just couldn't pull the trigger for some reason. Now I wait....

OTOH, 'shrooms up bigly today! :D
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Sold July $20 calls against my UMC long positions. Page out of LMs book but these are way out of the money (UMC is at $10.75, my cost basis is around $4.80).

I figure if they hit $20 I'd be taking profits anyway. If not, beer money. Or maybe some lottery calls on one of these crazy runners.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:15 pm I don't even know any more.

Runs just keep going and going. It's like you can't pick a loser in this mania.


I even have WHEN from 8 years ago in an old garbage account. It was never worth selling at $0.0001, where it's been for years. It's at $0.007 now. That's 70x in a few months. It has a $620M market cap for doing jack shit except change direction every few years and pump and dump.
I am starting to see more and more articles about how the market is unknowable, and perhaps broken right now (even MORE unknowable than normal I guess) People who have been pro traders for decades, saying things like the "U" word which I refuse to say or type anymore.

Anyway, they've never seen anything like it, including from the crazy dot com boom, to the financial/housing crisis, etc. This is a different thing, to be sure (it's not a crisis necessarily), but it's obviously causing enough instability that is making traditional Wall St. pros very nervous. And by instability, I don't necessarily mean volatility (though we certainly have that also). It's more like "things are not working like they are supposed to be working!!" Some might interpret that as a good thing, and that the current chaos is making it hard for those who have gamed the system for so long, to continue to do so. Or at least as well or as easily as they used to.

Lots of moving parts, here people! :D
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

My retirement account has now doubled in value since the absolute bottom of the market on March 23, 2020. Doubled! In less than 11 months!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:34 pm My retirement account has now doubled in value since the absolute bottom of the market on March 23, 2020. Doubled! In less than 11 months!
Yeah, my gains in the past 6 months are...absurd. Which would normally be a huge red flag to me (pending bubble), as a long time buy and hold investor.

But I am torn:

On one hand, this overheated craziness probably can't last very long. The RH component of this current chaos (one of many moving parts) is a huge mystery in terms of how long it will continue. Also, is it conspiratorially being manufactured and played by elite Wall St'ers? Or truly organic? Both? When enough of these newb retailers lose their ass on margin, will it cause a ripple effect, and scare others, or will they just be continually replaced by the second line of the horde, behind them? How big is that horde?

On the other hand, I DO believe that the stability of a Biden presidency (vs the chaos of the previous) has the market breathing a little easier. I DO believe that there is MASSIVE pent up demand from the Covid pandemic, especially in retail. As vaccinations increase, and we hopefully insulate ourselves a bit from Covid's effects on our (consumer) behavior, I think the market is going to surge, and bigly.

But it's that unknown RH piece that is still niggling at the corners of Wall St. "THIS is new! WHAT is it, exactly, and how do we get rid of it so we can go back to "normal"?" I'm not sure it's big enough yet to have your typical big fund managers changing their behavior, thus REALLY affecting the market, but it could be.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

My funds are similar. Mostly large cap, growth, and value. Plus Russell and SPY.

But my active retirement account, the one I trade in, is around 340% what it was at the March 2020 lows. And it only took about a 15-20% hit then.

Looking at it that way, I should probably liquidate that one.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:52 pm how do we get rid of it so we can go back to "normal"?"
I don't know if you can get rid of it when the flood gates have been open but this is stimulus money plus easy access plus gambling when sports died plus not spending plus euphoria of not losing over the course of 10 months plus TINA. Where else is all of this money going? To your .05% savings, to have CDs hold your money at .1%, to bonds yielding next to nothing, to money markets with negative rates?

Not even a month ago I thought my covered calls were all free money. Most of them, if they go they go, but I made the mistake of putting my index funds up that way and they are growing at 30%+ annualized clip for nearly a year and buying back my options and pushing them out so buying them back cost nothing is getting to be obscene. I make money pushing my index ETF up and out a month more than a 15% annual gain but it continues to go up 20-35% annual, so I lose ground every month even if I'm making money. I can't wrap my head around it.

I'm not nearly as smart as y'all generally but even just picking the scraps, I'm about 160% from late March low but that includes new money added as well but it also includes the fact that 30% was locked into CDs at the outset and I was till building CDs into September. Currently about 20% is still in CDs.

When all of your very poor judgement plays make you more money than having your money let sit interest bearing accounts, something is very wrong.

My managed 401K is "only" up about 20% in the last year.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Yeah, I am struggling with "house of cards, ready to fall at ANY minute?" or "new normal, AND/OR just a lot of pent up money being spent and making its way (admittedly in new/non-traditional ways) through the market.

Everything is kind of upside down, so it's hard to even say "well, we ALL know what's going to happen next when valuations are like this!" as if we can use history as a guide here. This is.....un....unpr....FUCK I CAN'T EVEN TYPE IT!!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

What strikes me about the market is that it is expensive but not crazy expensive. There are bubble stocks for sure but overall corporate profits are relatively healthy. Cash flows are doing well. Corporate debt is perhaps a bit high but debt is crazy cheap right now so it probably makes sense for businesses to take on some leverage. Many large businesses were able to respond well to the health crisis and some even prospered. The real unknowns are how fast do we recover and what does that mean for companies as the economy continues to adjust. That said we have expect prices to de-leverage somewhat sometime from the expensive side. I don't know if we are looking down the barrel of a bear market or maybe flatter growth/underperformance that evens the 'ratios' out but adjustment will come. In that spirit, I'm not super hot on buying stocks in this environment but there are few decent alternatives.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by RunningMn9 »

I'm surprised that there is any sentiment that this isn't a bubble ready to pop. This feels like 1999 all over again. I get that the March 2020 low was shocking - but that was sentiment driven too, as the country went into lock down and every on panicked. That we erased that drop - even as things didn't get better - and as they've gotten worse, the markets keep going up. I don't know, maybe I'm just more cautious after seeing multiple bubbles pop. I dodged the 2008 collapse accidentally (I really didn't like all the negativity about the economy during the campaign, and so when my retirement account was moving between banks, I just didn't put it back into the market). As soon as the March drop got erased for seemingly no real reason, I bounced. I've obviously missed out on a lot since then, but I'm not getting left holding the bag when this all comes crashing down. The markets don't feel rational to me, and that terrifies me.

Edit to add: My boss has a lot of money invested in scotch. When he first started, he would buy "crazy expensive" bottles for like $3000. They are now selling at auction for like $80,000. I told him the same thing - at some point, people are going to realize that it's just a bottle of whisky, and not a financial instrument. Sometimes it's ok to take that $77,000 profit and run.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by RunningMn9 »

To ask the question a different way. On Mar 19, 2020, the DOW bottomed out around 19174. What has happened during the last 10 months of the pandemic to justify a 65% gain? I mean I can understand that some of drop to 19174 was panic-induced and not "real". But surely the economic impact of 10s of millions unemployed, the government spending trillions it doesn't have, and at least 500K dead (just in the US) justified SOME of that drop? The idea that the markets are significantly higher today than Nov 2019 just seems ludicrous.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:21 am To ask the question a different way. On Mar 19, 2020, the DOW bottomed out around 19174. What has happened during the last 10 months of the pandemic to justify a 65% gain? I mean I can understand that some of drop to 19174 was panic-induced and not "real". But surely the economic impact of 10s of millions unemployed, the government spending trillions it doesn't have, and at least 500K dead (just in the US) justified SOME of that drop? The idea that the markets are significantly higher today than Nov 2019 just seems ludicrous.
That was what I was talking about corporate profits haven't taken much of a hit. What we're seeing is the stock market is more and more decoupled from main street. It is looking like they truly have become 'globalized entities' that had the ability to adapt to remote operations, target customer bases that adapted, and so on. Believe it or not but Manufacturing output is only slightly below December 2019 levels. That's astonishing if you really think about it. Consumer goods are *up* year after year and the real laggard in finished goods is business equipment. Which makes total sense with a populace working largely from home at the moment. The downside to all that is we our time we'll see how much of that 500K dead was the cost of deciding to prioritize these type of economic results.

Speaking to the 10s of millions of unemployed people, they are largely at the bottom of the economic ladder in specific industries. They are getting various assistance packages that give them enough assistance to avoid much of the disruption to corporate cash flows. That also helped the 'value retailers' such as Dollar Tree. At the higher end, food delivery services obviously did well. Grocery stores are doing fine. However, overall there are again positive but unequal indicators. Consumer revolving credit load is *DOWN*. As previously noted, consumer good manufacturing is up. That's interesting to say the least.

The government spending is a good thing in this context. They alone have the capacity to close any output gap in a sharp downturn. And I've pounded on this over and over but debt isn't likely a near-term problem. Debt levels are indeed historically high but we have at least one peer with much more debt without disaster. That doesn't mean there is no risk but risk levels probably are low that debt is a problem. The bond and stock markets have digested all this and seem to be fine with it at the moment.

Of course, you'll find stocks that took a hit. Some of the restaurant groups got pummeled. Some consumer staples are struggling. Especially ones that didn't respond quickly to the new operating environment.

And are there bubbles out there? Probably. Especially in the tech sector - harkening a bit back to 1999. TSLA is in absurd bubble territory for sure. There are some that are probably on the 'bubble' to pun a little; I think AMZN is a great company to own but I wouldn't buy more right now. it is overvalued by a lot.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Lots of pent up consumer (and b2b) demand.

As more get vaccinated, and we (hopefully) emerge from our Covid cocoons, I bet this will explode. Market is looking forward.

Note this is my argument for continuing to invest and staying in the market, at least short to medium term. Stabilizing presence of a non chaos monster in the WH is not hurting.

Longer term, after that energy is spent, and then the next several elections? Oof. Gold, anyone? :D
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by RunningMn9 »

Where is this pent up demand? It’s not like consumers are out there doing phenomenally well and hoarding untold sums of cash, are they? When this is over I’m not going on a spending orgy. With what? Probably the opposite since I will no longer be going out of my way to keep local businesses afloat.

I guess I’ll spend more money on gas and car maintenance again, but that’s it.

This seems ripe for news to break that pent up consumer demand isn’t what we thought it would be, and then everything comes crashing down.
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Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
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Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

RunningMn9 wrote:It’s not like consumers are out there doing phenomenally well and hoarding untold sums of cash, are they?
Yes, according to “them”. Everything I’ve read points to higher savings rates during the pandemic.

People, and many businesses, have been in fiscal “hunker down” mode for a loooong time.

Business part is complicated for obvious reasons. I’m not talking about the mom and pop cafe that opened 3 months prior to outbreak. Mostly non-customer-facing businesses, but even some of those have ended up doing better than normal depending on business model and sector.

Anecdotally, my family income is the lowest it’s been, ever, but our cash on hand is at its highest. For us, specifically, that’s because we’re not:

Taking trips (no expensive flights)
Driving as much (less wear and tear on cars, less spent on gas)
Kids aren’t doing stuff like camps, or external activities
No concerts, or amusement parks
MUCH less eating out than we used to
No movie theater tickets
Etc. I could go on but you get the idea.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:28 pm Where is this pent up demand? It’s not like consumers are out there doing phenomenally well and hoarding untold sums of cash, are they?
Actually people have been hoarding cash and as noted above revolving credit balances are down YoY.
When this is over I’m not going on a spending orgy. With what? Probably the opposite since I will no longer be going out of my way to keep local businesses afloat.
Maybe the economy is a bit bigger than your preferences. :)
This seems ripe for news to break that pent up consumer demand isn’t what we thought it would be, and then everything comes crashing down.
As above, the reasons the market is doing well isn't totally linked to consumers and in any case consumer goods manufacturing is actually up right now. The economy is great unless you are a person in the lower strata who works in retail, restaurants, and hospitality type sectors.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Lots of pent up consumer (and b2b) demand.

As more get vaccinated, and we (hopefully) emerge from our Covid cocoons, I bet this will explode. Market is looking forward.

Note this is my argument for continuing to invest and staying in the market, at least short to medium term. Stabilizing presence of a non chaos monster in the WH is not hurting.

Longer term, after that energy is spent, and then the next several elections? Oof. Gold, anyone? :D
A better argument for being in and staying in the market is that recent history suggests that from an overall perspective, any risk of significant, across the board, losses will be socialized and the market propped up at any cost.

There is a potential bubble there, but given that the risk is being subsidized by the full faith and credit of the USA, the Bubble isn't in the market but the country, and I don't see any good hedge against that risk.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:05 pmThere is a potential bubble there, but given that the risk is being subsidized by the full faith and credit of the USA, the Bubble isn't in the market but the country, and I don't see any good hedge against that risk.
This argument breaks down pretty quickly IMO. If I thought a bubble was about to break and believed the risk is subsidized by the full faith and credit of the USA wouldn't my best hedge be *cash* or tangible goods (gold, real estate, etc.)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:05 pm There is a potential bubble there, but given that the risk is being subsidized by the full faith and credit of the USA, the Bubble isn't in the market but the country, and I don't see any good hedge against that risk.
Not trying to insert R&P, serious question: What will "the full faith and credit of the USA" be worth under a proto-authoritarian style government in 8 -12 years? I'm not saying that is likely, but now, especially, it looks at least possible, and not just crazy talk as we would have (righty, I think) viewed such a comment 4-6 years ago.

I think anyone on either side of the political aisle would concur that "things" have fundamentally changed in our style of government, and many (again, that's bipartisan) make the case for the current system being completely broken.

I do see this as a very serious long term threat to my retirement savings, putting the fact that our democracy is going up in flames aside for a second. Other than THAT.... :P But really, if we continue down the same path and continue to be further divided as a country, government, on a larger scale than is already happening, is not functioning, etc. Those are huge risks. And yes, we will have more important things to worry about, but damn.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:38 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:05 pm There is a potential bubble there, but given that the risk is being subsidized by the full faith and credit of the USA, the Bubble isn't in the market but the country, and I don't see any good hedge against that risk.
Not trying to insert R&P, serious question: What will "the full faith and credit of the USA" be worth under a proto-authoritarian style government in 8 -12 years?
Largely the same or similar with a caveat if we go protectionist. Look at China for instance. Authoritarian, mostly protectionist but has the ability to have a stable currency. That they manipulated their currency for protectionist trade purposes undermines this story a little. However, it's a modest effect at besst. Could the US do this in a authoritarian future? It's definitely possible. But big picture looking out at major authoritarian economies asset prices generally aren't bouncing all over the place in those nations (e.g. China or Russia).
and not just crazy talk as we would have (righty, I think) viewed such a comment 4-6 years ago.
This drives me a little crazy (forgive me!). That crazy talk was coming out of credentialed experts on authoritarianism. Maybe we should have listened to them?
I do see this as a very serious long term threat to my retirement savings, putting the fact that our democracy is going up in flames aside for a second. Other than THAT.... :P But really, if we continue down the same path and continue to be further divided as a country, government, on a larger scale than is already happening, is not functioning, etc. Those are huge risks. And yes, we will have more important things to worry about, but damn.
FWIW I'm working through this issue right now (as I noted over in R&P). The basic things are eliminate debt, etc. That said, unrest or whatever comes actually is potentially hedged by ownership of real companies. The chances that wealth is going to be confiscated is relatively low. That isn't what typically happens (I'm reading a book partly on this subject at the moment). Will the "dollar" value of assets be unpredictable in the midst of change? Sure but the companies themselves likely won't evaporate.
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malchior wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:54 pm
and not just crazy talk as we would have (righty, I think) viewed such a comment 4-6 years ago.
This drives me a little crazy (forgive me!). That crazy talk was coming out of credentialed experts on authoritarianism. Maybe we should have listened to them?
4-6 years ago? Their warnings pre-dated Trump?
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Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:59 pm
malchior wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:54 pm
and not just crazy talk as we would have (righty, I think) viewed such a comment 4-6 years ago.
This drives me a little crazy (forgive me!). That crazy talk was coming out of credentialed experts on authoritarianism. Maybe we should have listened to them?
4-6 years ago? Their warnings pre-dated Trump?
Yes. Some going back to the tea party. When Trump was running some started hanging off the alarm but were sidelined and banished from the airwaves. Some were on though. Sarah Kendzior is a good example but they were mostly marginalized. Anyway, just more of an interesting note than anything else. :?
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malchior wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:03 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:59 pm
malchior wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:54 pm
and not just crazy talk as we would have (righty, I think) viewed such a comment 4-6 years ago.
This drives me a little crazy (forgive me!). That crazy talk was coming out of credentialed experts on authoritarianism. Maybe we should have listened to them?
4-6 years ago? Their warnings pre-dated Trump?
Yes. Some going back to the tea party. When Trump was running some started hanging off the alarm but were sidelined and banished from the airwaves. Some were on though. Sarah Kendzior is a good example but they were mostly marginalized. Anyway, just more of an interesting note than anything else. :?
Interesting. Well, didn't mean to lean that far into the political, but there is risk of course, introduced into all our portfolios, via the current and likely future political unrest. I doubt ANYbody that's paying a modicum of attention, thinks that things will just go back to the status quo, politically speaking, anytime soon.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Yeah there is risk but we should consider that the stock market is a favored center of existing wealth.
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This guy gets me.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:54 am This guy gets me.
He is famously risk averse. To the point he holds all his assets in cash for years on end - as he mentioned with Japan. That works for him because he is already a billionaire. I'm not saying he is necessarily wrong but his advice isn't all that useful for mere mortals. FWIW he is so risk averse that his clients pulled $2B out of GMO because they somehow *lost money* for their clients in 2020.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:01 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:54 am This guy gets me.
He is famously risk averse. To the point he holds all his assets in cash for years on end. That works for him because he is already a billionaire. I'm not saying he is necessarily wrong but his advice isn't all that useful for mere mortals.
I get that, I was more focusing on the technical indicators that we are in a bubble. That at the fact that the longest bull market in history has to come to an end at some point. And it feels soon. I would have felt a lot better if the drop last March was sustained for any real length of time. But it got erased so quickly, that it made no sense to me. Godspeed to all of you though. I'll be fine if I'm wrong, so that's obviously a preferred outcome. :)
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:08 am
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:01 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:54 am This guy gets me.
He is famously risk averse. To the point he holds all his assets in cash for years on end. That works for him because he is already a billionaire. I'm not saying he is necessarily wrong but his advice isn't all that useful for mere mortals.
I get that, I was more focusing on the technical indicators that we are in a bubble. That at the fact that the longest bull market in history has to come to an end at some point. And it feels soon. I would have felt a lot better if the drop last March was sustained for any real length of time. But it got erased so quickly, that it made no sense to me. Godspeed to all of you though. I'll be fine if I'm wrong, so that's obviously a preferred outcome. :)
I made a slight edit. Just a little more context about the stealth edit - he got beat up last year badly by his clients. IMO he has been making a lot of noise this year trying to justify how he lost his clients' money. So I take him with a grain of salt at the moment.

That said, *corporate* economic indicators are mostly ok considering the pandemic. He doesn't address that really or acknowledge that EPS and Cash Flows are mostly solid. In other words, he is omitting important KPIs to make his case.

Yet he raises real problems - the Fed doesn't have many levers left to pull, a double dip would be difficult to manage, etc. He has a point there and maybe he is right but he is often off by 2-3 years. Most of us need to be value stock buy & hold level people in any case. At least, that's the way I see it. People like us can't afford to time markets.

FWIW I'm not actively trading for the reasons he's mentioning but his extreme capital preservation schemes are perversely too risky if many of us want to meet retirement goals. I'm still monitoring this thread because I want to get back to active trading and feeling out the craziness by proxy.

Edit: About the massive drop last year and the quick recovery. In short, market 'panicked' on the downside in an irrational way. They were jittery about Trump trade war stuff then got *very bad* news and freaked. When earnings started coming back in with much less damage than expected and the government (to expand actually nearly all governments across the advanced economies) stepped in to close off parts of the output gap it calmed the markets.
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malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amI made a slight edit. Just a little more context about the stealth edit - he got beat up last year badly by his clients. IMO he has been making a lot of noise this year trying to justify how he lost his clients' money. So I take him with a grain of salt at the moment.
Right, but doesn't he point out that it's the same thing that happened to him with Japan, in 1999, and in 2007? His timing is wrong, and one could argue that if your timing is wrong enough, that you're just wrong. And that's fair. But his point is that for people like him who exit early, they get beat up when they do it, because their clients think that the party is going to last forever.
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amFWIW I'm not actively trading for the reasons he's mentioning but his extreme capital preservation schemes are perversely too risky if many of us want to meet retirement goals. I'm still monitoring this thread because I want to get back to active trading and feeling out the craziness by proxy.
The question I was addressing was whether or not we are in a bubble, not what investment strategy one should take if we are or are not. I think that we are, and I think for similar reasons to what was in that link - the growth has simply gone on too long, and even I am seeing substantial disconnects between reality and market behavior.

I assume much of my concern is driven by the absurd, with the recent ludicrous spikes in GME, AMC, KOSS, etc. That's exactly the kind of insane thing that I was seeing in Nov 1999. Luckily, I profited immensely from that, but suffered staggering losses in 2000. I accidentally dodged the bullet in 2008 (I think at the bottom, my portfolio was down about 8% rather than the 60% it would have been down if I had listened to advisor in Jan 08. This just feels like another episode.

And there's some cynicism thrown on top too, which is that the GOP now has a vested interest in tanking the economy.
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amEdit: About the massive drop last year and the quick recovery. In short, market 'panicked' on the downside in an irrational way.
Right, that's why I ignored it when considering the last time we were in a bear market. March 2020 qualified, but the drop was panic-induced, and not yet based on real factors. I think that the reasons for the market to be down are much more significant now than they were in March 2020, and yet the market is up as if nothing happened.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:34 pm
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amI made a slight edit. Just a little more context about the stealth edit - he got beat up last year badly by his clients. IMO he has been making a lot of noise this year trying to justify how he lost his clients' money. So I take him with a grain of salt at the moment.
Right, but doesn't he point out that it's the same thing that happened to him with Japan, in 1999, and in 2007? His timing is wrong, and one could argue that if your timing is wrong enough, that you're just wrong. And that's fair. But his point is that for people like him who exit early, they get beat up when they do it, because their clients think that the party is going to last forever.
Sure but the number thrown around is $2B pulled. I'm agreeing that is his point but I'm getting a bit meta and looking at the why he has been pounding the drum loudly -- nearly every day -- on this issue. I'm not even saying he is lying but he has a motive here even if he isn't conscious of it.
I assume much of my concern is driven by the absurd, with the recent ludicrous spikes in GME, AMC, KOSS, etc. That's exactly the kind of insane thing that I was seeing in Nov 1999. Luckily, I profited immensely from that, but suffered staggering losses in 2000. I accidentally dodged the bullet in 2008 (I think at the bottom, my portfolio was down about 8% rather than the 60% it would have been down if I had listened to advisor in Jan 08. This just feels like another episode.
That is what I took away from your questions and 1999 was different in that there was a broad-based technology bubble without any underlying financials that a lot of the market had bought into. This is different in the sense that the stocks you list are acting differently. It's concerning but most companies outside these 'outliers' and a few in tech are actually still relatively healthy against all odds. And even most of the 'outliers' are generally real businesses with real prospects - GME aside. Tesla is actually a fairly healthy company with an absurd valuation. Amazon is a fantastic company with a very high valuation. This isn't Pets.Com that had no ramp to profitability and was trading at near infinite price-to-earnings ratios. In other words, I don't think focusing on these outliers is going to be part of the big story here.
And there's some cynicism thrown on top too, which is that the GOP now has a vested interest in tanking the economy.
Fair enough unfortunately.
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amEdit: About the massive drop last year and the quick recovery. In short, market 'panicked' on the downside in an irrational way.
Right, that's why I ignored it when considering the last time we were in a bear market. March 2020 qualified, but the drop was panic-induced, and not yet based on real factors. I think that the reasons for the market to be down are much more significant now than they were in March 2020, and yet the market is up as if nothing happened.
I still don't get this. It is because broadly the economy isn't that bad -- and definitely better than expected in March 2020. That is why it makes sense. Consumers are hoarding cash. Demand for consumer goods has led to increased manufacturing - maybe related to early toilet paper type mania but again it increased YoY with 2019! And corporate earnings are hitting their targets. That's an amazing result.

Are their people hurting out there? Yep. Is that pain translating to pain in companies in the S&P? It at least for now doesn't seem to be in the mix as they report out their financial results. It's unexpected for sure (or maybe not based on the markets reaction!) but it really indicates that the economic exposure market-facing companies see has somehow untethered from the fate of main street. Might all their earnings tank and they all begin to miss their numbers? Sure and the market may implode then but we don't have a good case for that to happen yet in the data.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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First of all, thanks for sharing that piece, although such things CAN be very dangerous on a few levels. I am VERY leery in general, of these, either way (perma-bull/perma-bear), but he does raise some very interesting points, and highlights some very concerning current data as well. Something I will think about for sure.

First thing that stood out to me was that the author pulled out of the Japan bubble three YEARS early! :D How much would he have made had he just stayed in and rode it all the way up, and all the way down (and back up, I guess) again? Obviously he promotes market timing. But then at the end he seems to suggest moving into Value and Emerging Markets (as opposed to cashing out completely).
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

malchior wrote:
RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:34 pm
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amI made a slight edit. Just a little more context about the stealth edit - he got beat up last year badly by his clients. IMO he has been making a lot of noise this year trying to justify how he lost his clients' money. So I take him with a grain of salt at the moment.
Right, but doesn't he point out that it's the same thing that happened to him with Japan, in 1999, and in 2007? His timing is wrong, and one could argue that if your timing is wrong enough, that you're just wrong. And that's fair. But his point is that for people like him who exit early, they get beat up when they do it, because their clients think that the party is going to last forever.
Sure but the number thrown around is $2B pulled. I'm agreeing that is his point but I'm getting a bit meta and looking at the why he has been pounding the drum loudly -- nearly every day -- on this issue. I'm not even saying he is lying but he has a motive here even if he isn't conscious of it.
I assume much of my concern is driven by the absurd, with the recent ludicrous spikes in GME, AMC, KOSS, etc. That's exactly the kind of insane thing that I was seeing in Nov 1999. Luckily, I profited immensely from that, but suffered staggering losses in 2000. I accidentally dodged the bullet in 2008 (I think at the bottom, my portfolio was down about 8% rather than the 60% it would have been down if I had listened to advisor in Jan 08. This just feels like another episode.
That is what I took away from your questions and 1999 was different in that there was a broad-based technology bubble without any underlying financials that a lot of the market had bought into. This is different in the sense that the stocks you list are acting differently. It's concerning but most companies outside these 'outliers' and a few in tech are actually still relatively healthy against all odds. And even most of the 'outliers' are generally real businesses with real prospects - GME aside. Tesla is actually a fairly healthy company with an absurd valuation. Amazon is a fantastic company with a very high valuation. This isn't Pets.Com that had no ramp to profitability and was trading at near infinite price-to-earnings ratios. In other words, I don't think focusing on these outliers is going to be part of the big story here.
And there's some cynicism thrown on top too, which is that the GOP now has a vested interest in tanking the economy.
Fair enough unfortunately.
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 amEdit: About the massive drop last year and the quick recovery. In short, market 'panicked' on the downside in an irrational way.
Right, that's why I ignored it when considering the last time we were in a bear market. March 2020 qualified, but the drop was panic-induced, and not yet based on real factors. I think that the reasons for the market to be down are much more significant now than they were in March 2020, and yet the market is up as if nothing happened.
I still don't get this. It is because broadly the economy isn't that bad -- and definitely better than expected in March 2020. That is why it makes sense. Consumers are hoarding cash. Demand for consumer goods has led to increased manufacturing - maybe related to early toilet paper type mania but again it increased YoY with 2019! And corporate earnings are hitting their targets. That's an amazing result.

Are their people hurting out there? Yep. Is that pain translating to pain in companies in the S&P? It at least for now doesn't seem to be in the mix as they report out their financial results. It's unexpected for sure (or maybe not based on the markets reaction!) but it really indicates that the economic exposure market-facing companies see has somehow untethered from the fate of main street. Might all their earnings tank and they all begin to miss their numbers? Sure and the market may implode then but we don't have a good case for that to happen yet in the data.
I was looking for something like the '08 Bubble factors, and had been eyeing corporate debt as the comp. A few more checks than there were with regards to the mortgage bubble which was very fraught with fraud and much higher risk than the markets priced in, but it didn't appear as it would be enough to me. As such, one underreported 2020 move was backstopping corporate debt. That plus the other stimulus programs IMHO really propped up a number of companies which weren't on solid ground and would have caused the panic.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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