BSG X -Eden -Game Over

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:43 pm

stessier wrote:
Vorret wrote:Since Helo still hasn't come forward I think we can safely assume all our specials are dead and this will be a very, VERY hard game to win.

I think we'll need to gamble somewhere and I guess start by lynching one of the Athenas...
Remus and Triggercut still haven't posted.

I did so. I asked LM about his boom statement. I'm not certain regarding Grund's claim. I do not believe RMC's. I suggest that if Helo lives he shoots Unagi as the others came forward voluntarily while he was forced into making a claim. That suggests to me they have a lower chance of going boom. I'm in a conference all day so have not parsed through everything as yet.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:45 pm

Unagi, since we are entertaining all these Athena claimants, what was your scan last night?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:16 pm

RMC wrote: I am also a Cylon, but the good kind.

You know what the good kind of cylon is right?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:24 pm

So Trig and Unagi are the only two that have not posted.

Remus has a point, Unagi, who did you scan last night.

Trig, please be Helo so we can shoot a cylon in the face.

If we don't have a Helo, I'm thinking we will want to lynch Unagi today and leave night to take care of Athena problem.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:29 pm

I don't think Night is going to solve anything. I'm betting we will be lynching all 3.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:36 pm

Ahhhhh, we CAN'T lynch all 3. One is Doral. If we lynch them all and one is real, we lose.

Fabulous.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:37 pm

stessier wrote:I don't think Night is going to solve anything. I'm betting we will be lynching all 3.

bb elbows Stess in the stomach. "No, no, those nasty cylons will want to kill Athena tonight. They don't want another scan to be make public."

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:37 pm

stessier wrote:I don't think Night is going to solve anything. I'm betting we will be lynching all 3.

Sure looks that way , we cannot trust any of them and even IF one of them is telling the truth he'd still come back a Cylon.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:04 pm

stessier wrote:Ahhhhh, we CAN'T lynch all 3. One is Doral. If we lynch them all and one is real, we lose.

Fabulous.

There are 10 Players.

Either Grund or RMC are the real Athena:
Start:
CCCC-HHHHHR
Today: Lynch Unagi Cylon
CCC-HHHHHR
Tonight: Night Kill
CCC-HHHHH
Tomorrow: Lynch Non-Athena Cylon who is Doral (Boom)
CC-HHHH
Tomorrow Night: Night Kill
CC-HHH
Day After Tomorrow: Lynch Athena
CC-HH
Loss

If both Grund and RMC are bad cylons trying to psych us out:
Start:
CCCC-HHHHHR
Today: Lynch Unagi Cylon
CCC-HHHHHR
Tonight: Night Kill
CCC-HHHHH
Tomorrow: Lynch Non-Athena Cylon who is Doral (Boom)
CC-HHHH
Tomorrow Night: Night Kill
CC-HHH
Day After Tomorrow: Lynch other bad Cylon
C-HHH
Day After Tomorrow Night: Night Kill
C-HH
Have to get it right.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:08 pm

Tight.

Let's cross our fingers that TC is Helo

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:20 pm

Does Doral's explosion end the day?
No.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:23 pm

I see more permutations than that. I see Starbuck, Helo, and Unagi boom off the top of my head.

But I do agree, if possible we have to consider both that RMC and Grund might be bad concurrently with RMC or Grund might be athena. I have no idea how to do that. I do think that you have to put at least on the airlock and I see the Grund defense against RMC attack being not so good for Grund. At the same time, there's a chance RMC is playing us and knows Grund is Athena, which is precisely why I disagree with the choice to hold back. Those sorts of bluff demand a sort of trust from me I have a real hard time following and for which I get burned.

I tend to play the odds and then cry when I lose.... Unless it's craps. God help me, I love craps but betting against the shooter is just wrong. The odds say to RMC is truthing and Grund is lying. My instincts says to RMC and Grund are playing us but my instincts are shitty.

Here's a question, if you got one free screen as cylons from Daniel and it random. What do you do if comes back Citizen? Starbuck? Helo? Athena? ... And the lawyer....

Presumably, you wait a night and kill a special the next night knowing they are your out. So they convert Daniel on night 2. They kill Tu1cy on night 3. If they knew who Athena was, then it was Tru1cy and they come out tomorrow Unagi and uncontested.

So the question for me (that I don't have an answer to and now I have to find the time to go back and look and think poorly) is was tru1cy Athena? If we believe Tru1cy is Athena then we kill grund and RMC. If we do not believe Tru1cy is Athena then we make a choice.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:27 pm

Okay, both LM and RMC have shown they don't fully know the rules of the Cylons. What do we make of that? I mean, in LM's case, probably not much, but how about RMC?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:27 pm

stessier wrote:Okay, both LM and RMC have shown they don't fully know the rules of the Cylons. What do we make of that? I mean, in LM's case, probably not much, but how about RMC?

Yeaa, not sure.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:30 pm

Why do you discount Chaosraven as Athena while considering the chance tr1cy was?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:31 pm

stessier wrote:Okay, both LM and RMC have shown they don't fully know the rules of the Cylons. What do we make of that? I mean, in LM's case, probably not much, but how about RMC?

What am I (still) getting wrong? It's not that I don't know the rules, it's that I have no memory for shifting rule sets and I'm too impatient to reread them again and again and again, even if I need to post a rule every time I make reference to it. By all means dissect and correct me. I'm not offended.

Yes, I'm the guy who needs to carry a note pad around with him at work and then when I get back to my desk take all of those note and enter them into his computer so he can remember what he's supposed to do at work.

Yes, I'm the guy who doesn't have the patience for a smartphone.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:32 pm

Remus West wrote:Why do you discount Chaosraven as Athena while considering the chance tr1cy was?

Going and looking, it's because I'm stupid.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:33 pm

Also to add my little analysis, I know I'm constantly beating a dead horse here but we have some players that are alive after some night kills that just make me scratch my head big time :

Unagi
Grund

I could also add Remus but I can understand why someone would want to keep him in the game since he can somewhat be an easy lynch target if someone boards the "Remus is always evil" train, which, lately, isn't as true as it used to be (it seems).

Then you have Stessier and I'll even add BB to the list of people who are what I'd consider veteran and who plays in most of the game on this forum.

Scoop died on N1 for some unknown reason, he's, imo, a terrible first night kill because of his volatility.
Then we get Tru1cy who my wild guess is might have been Starbuck since he was very silent up to that point
And finaly El Guapo who I'd also lump in the veteran and is the only night kill that actually make some sense.

Why are

Unagi
Grund
Remus

Still alive? Makes no sense to me.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:39 pm

LordMortis wrote:
stessier wrote:Okay, both LM and RMC have shown they don't fully know the rules of the Cylons. What do we make of that? I mean, in LM's case, probably not much, but how about RMC?
What am I (still) getting wrong? It's not that I don't know the rules, it's that I have no memory for shifting rule sets and I'm too impatient to reread them again and again and again, even if I need to post a rule every time I make reference to it. By all means dissect and correct me. I'm not offended.

Yes, I'm the guy who needs to carry a note pad around with him at work and then when I get back to my desk take all of those note and enter them into his computer so he can remember what he's supposed to do at work.

Yes, I'm the guy who doesn't have the patience for a smartphone.

Daniel let's the learn the name of a Citizen. Not a Special...a Villager.

Ellen's power only let's them scan twice and all they learn is Special/Villager. They don't know the Roles of any of the dead - all they know is how many Specials they have taken out if they scanned them before killing them.

So they didn't know if Athena was dead when Unagi came out...well, unless Unagi is actually Athena. They don't know anything about Scoop. They could know things about tru1cy/Chaos/El Guapo...but would only know if 2 of the 3 are Special. We have 4 Specials - and know Moliere is one. It would really be bad luck for us if they got the other 3 with 4 kills.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:42 pm

stessier wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
stessier wrote:Okay, both LM and RMC have shown they don't fully know the rules of the Cylons. What do we make of that? I mean, in LM's case, probably not much, but how about RMC?
What am I (still) getting wrong? It's not that I don't know the rules, it's that I have no memory for shifting rule sets and I'm too impatient to reread them again and again and again, even if I need to post a rule every time I make reference to it. By all means dissect and correct me. I'm not offended.

Yes, I'm the guy who needs to carry a note pad around with him at work and then when I get back to my desk take all of those note and enter them into his computer so he can remember what he's supposed to do at work.

Yes, I'm the guy who doesn't have the patience for a smartphone.
Daniel let's the learn the name of a Citizen. Not a Special...a Villager.

Ellen's power only let's them scan twice and all they learn is Special/Villager. They don't know the Roles of any of the dead - all they know is how many Specials they have taken out if they scanned them before killing them.

So they didn't know if Athena was dead when Unagi came out...well, unless Unagi is actually Athena. They don't know anything about Scoop. They could know things about tru1cy/Chaos/El Guapo...but would only know if 2 of the 3 are Special. We have 4 Specials - and know Moliere is one. It would really be bad luck for us if they got the other 3 with 4 kills.

The one that make sense is Tru1cy as Starbuck, the kill itself doesn't make sense so my guess is he was scanned by Leoben probably.

If Unagi is the real Athena I seriously don't understand his play on Holman, it was extra , useless fluff that gave us a complete miss.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:47 pm

stessier wrote:Daniel let's the learn the name of a Citizen. Not a Special...a Villager.

Wait!!!!!

There will be no kill that night but the Cylons will learn the identity of a least 1 citizen. (if no citizens are left then you will learn nothing).

Is Stess right? Am I misreading this?

I hate to call "judge" but Lassr am I misreading citizen? Does identity of citizen mean learn one person who doesn't have a role? Or does it mean learn the role of one living human/athena?

That literally changes my thinking process on a lot.

Ellen's power only let's them scan twice and all they learn is Special/Villager. They don't know the Roles of any of the dead - all they know is how many Specials they have taken out if they scanned them before killing them.

I don't remember making that claim.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:47 pm

Vorret wrote:The one that make sense is Tru1cy as Starbuck, the kill itself doesn't make sense so my guess is he was scanned by Leoben probably.

If Unagi is the real Athena I seriously don't understand his play on Holman, it was extra , useless fluff that gave us a complete miss.

The timing doesn't work on tru1cy. Night went Scoop/Miss/tru1cy&cChaos.

If we assume the Miss was Daniel being found, he didn't get access to the Cylon forum until the next morning per Lassr. But Daniel has to plant the bomb the Night before he detonates it. So he had to have planted it blind.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:49 pm

LordMortis wrote:
stessier wrote:Daniel let's the learn the name of a Citizen. Not a Special...a Villager.
Wait!!!!!

There will be no kill that night but the Cylons will learn the identity of a least 1 citizen. (if no citizens are left then you will learn nothing).
Is Stess right? Am I misreading this?

I hate to call "judge" but Lassr am I misreading citizen? Does identity of citizen mean learn one person who doesn't have a role? Or does it mean learn the role of one living human/athena?

That literally changes my thinking process on a lot.

How could there be "no citizens left" and the game not over if Specials were included? Plus, read the Roles - Villagers are called Citizens.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:51 pm

LordMortis wrote:
There will be no kill that night but the Cylons will learn the identity of a least 1 citizen. (if no citizens are left then you will learn nothing).
Is Stess right? Am I misreading this?

Citizen = Villager for this game. They learn the name of a Citizen in the game. Not the name of a special.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:51 pm

stessier wrote:
Vorret wrote:The one that make sense is Tru1cy as Starbuck, the kill itself doesn't make sense so my guess is he was scanned by Leoben probably.

If Unagi is the real Athena I seriously don't understand his play on Holman, it was extra , useless fluff that gave us a complete miss.
The timing doesn't work on tru1cy. Night went Scoop/Miss/tru1cy&cChaos.

If we assume the Miss was Daniel being found, he didn't get access to the Cylon forum until the next morning per Lassr. But Daniel has to plant the bomb the Night before he detonates it. So he had to have planted it blind.

Yeah but the bomb killed Chaos and the night kill was Tru1cy... how does it make no sense?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:53 pm

stessier wrote:How could there be "no citizens left" and the game not over if Specials were included? Plus, read the Roles - Villagers are called Citizens.

How do you learn nothing? If you learn nothing because there are only specials left, you learn there are only specials left. That hurts my brain too much.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:53 pm

N1 - Dead Scoop - Missed Leoben scan
N2 - They got Daniel - Hit Tru1cy on the scan
N3 - Dead Tru1cy - Dead Chaos from bomb

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:54 pm

Lassr wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
There will be no kill that night but the Cylons will learn the identity of a least 1 citizen. (if no citizens are left then you will learn nothing).
Is Stess right? Am I misreading this?

Citizen = Villager for this game. They learn the name of a Citizen in the game. Not the name of a special.

OK scratch everything I just posted past, "there are more permutations"

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:55 pm

Daniel planted the bomb blind but once converted he knew Chaos wasn't a Cylon so blowing it was perfectly fine that's why they did it on N3

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:56 pm

Vorret wrote:
stessier wrote:
Vorret wrote:The one that make sense is Tru1cy as Starbuck, the kill itself doesn't make sense so my guess is he was scanned by Leoben probably.

If Unagi is the real Athena I seriously don't understand his play on Holman, it was extra , useless fluff that gave us a complete miss.
The timing doesn't work on tru1cy. Night went Scoop/Miss/tru1cy&cChaos.

If we assume the Miss was Daniel being found, he didn't get access to the Cylon forum until the next morning per Lassr. But Daniel has to plant the bomb the Night before he detonates it. So he had to have planted it blind.
Yeah but the bomb killed Chaos and the night kill was Tru1cy... how does it make no sense?

My bad, had them backwards. You're right, it could have been tru1cy. Or El Guapo.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:58 pm

Vorret wrote:Daniel planted the bomb blind but once converted he knew Chaos wasn't a Cylon so blowing it was perfectly fine that's why they did it on N3

Daniel already knows all the roles of the cylons. Go reread Daniel. Holman tried saying something similar a few pages back.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:58 pm

bb2112 wrote:
Vorret wrote:Daniel planted the bomb blind but once converted he knew Chaos wasn't a Cylon so blowing it was perfectly fine that's why they did it on N3
Daniel already knows all the roles of the cylons. Go reread Daniel. Holman tried saying something similar a few pages back.

Crap, you're right I forgot

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:00 pm

Vorret wrote:Daniel planted the bomb blind but once converted he knew Chaos wasn't a Cylon so blowing it was perfectly fine that's why they did it on N3

Daniel always knows who the Cylons are - they just don't know him. He planted in and knew he was safe in doing so. An interesting question that has been brought up before is "why did he plant it so early in such a big game?" Was he pressured? It's fair to think he may never be found by the other Cylons, but why did he set it so early on Chaos? Was their a tip? Did he want to set someone up?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:00 pm

After thinking I doubt Tru1cy was SB ...

N-1 protect self
N-2 I guess moliere?
N3 with no other known player is the safe bet here to self protect?

I guess it could have been Chaos as well, since it doesn't protect from the bomb.

Damnit there's so many possibilities

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:01 pm

Actually Chaos makes a bunch of sense now that i think about it.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:03 pm

Like worse case scenario here :

Leoben scanned Chaos and by some freak miracle Daniel also bombed Starbuck's (Chaos)
Ellen slept with Truc1cy and he was revealed special

Knowing SB would protect herself on N3 (most likely) the bombing and night kill make sense

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:10 pm

I mean, you can come up with all kinds of crazy scenarios, but there is no reason to think they happened. Simplest explanation is they thought tru1cy looked Special by his involvement (as I did) and Chaos was blown up either because he looked Special or Doral liked the chaos it would cause. Doesn't really need to be more than that.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:12 pm

stessier wrote:I mean, you can come up with all kinds of crazy scenarios, but there is no reason to think they happened. Simplest explanation is they thought tru1cy looked Special by his involvement (as I did) and Chaos was blown up either because he looked Special or Doral liked the chaos it would cause. Doesn't really need to be more than that.

I know.
But we have complete radio silence from all our specials other than the threesome of Athenas so it's sort of fair to assume we hit some major badluck early on.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:15 pm

Well, if Starbuck is alive, she's never going to tell us - so we have that going for us. Lampkin is rather exposed, imo.

Athena and Helo are the big questions.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:15 pm

Vorret wrote:Like worse case scenario here :

Leoben scanned Chaos and by some freak miracle Daniel also bombed Starbuck's (Chaos)
Ellen slept with Truc1cy and he was revealed special

Knowing SB would protect herself on N3 (most likely) the bombing and night kill make sense

Worst case scenario?

No Helo, no Stabuck, by luck or design.

Unagi is Doral. We move to lynch him and he shoots one of us, let's just go down the line.

1 Remus West..
2 Vorret………….
3 BB2112………..
4 Unagi…………..
5 Grundbegriff. Cylon
6 Moliere………. Lampkin
7 Triggercut……
8 RMC……………. Cylon
9 stessier……….
10 LordMortis….

Tomorrow we have

1 Remus West..
2 Vorret………….
3 BB2112………..
4 Unagi…………..
5 Grundbegriff. Cylon
6 Moliere………. Lampkin
7 Triggercut……
8 RMC……………. Cylon
9 stessier……….
10 LordMortis….

We have to choose Grund or RMC.

Choose wrong:

3 BB2112………..
5 Grundbegriff. Cylon
6 Moliere………. Lampkin
7 Triggercut……
8 RMC……………. Cylon
9 stessier……….
10 LordMortis….

3 to 3 Cylons win.

And so, we wait for Trig.

I started to give a lot of thought to what if we survive the worst case scenario but the Stess pissed in my cheerios.