WW - OO JL : Game Over

[Mr Bubbles]

That turn did puzzle me. Grund just jumped high with that reversal.  Grundbegriff 
 

Do you think I'd make it easy if I were evil? Didn't you see the Controlled KAOS game?

Please don't tell me you're evil, Bubbles. It'd be so disappointing to see you and Lassr showing up all the veterans who can't manage to read me.

I'll tell you what  withdraw Grundbegriff 
 
I'll give it another go around and promise you a fair trial. I will post my final vote later tonight.

[triggercut]

I will now attempt one last time to talk some sense into Grund. He won't backpedal--the online persona he's created for himself won't allow it. Admission of error isn't in his toolset, and so he's led himself to be thoroughly outed as a badguy here.

At any rate:

1. The village in these games has three methods of catching badguys. They can either buy time for their seer to ferret out badguys and then tie his or her teammates through their votes to that badguy or guys, they can turtle up and allow their seer to build a coalition of trust behind the scenes, or finally, they can simply out the badguys through pure vote analysis.

2. In this game, waiting for our "seer" (Wonder Woman) is going to be a tough play to make. Because of the unique way her protection works, she cannot always scan unknowns, and must instead "waste" scans to protect knowns in the game. Thus, waiting for her to unturn a badguy is probably a low-percentage play here. Turtling up won't work either, since the pool of unknowns for the badguys is much smaller than it is for the goodguys.

3. Thus we're left with the best tool we have for finding the Doomboys: vote analysis. The way it usually works is that the goodguys spend a lot of time in the dark until they find the first badguy. Then folks can go back and retcon votes, statements, and actions in thread to see if the revealed badguy had obvious allies, and that's that.

4. As such, every lynch vote is sacred. Even that first vote can show valuable information, and the accuse/counter-accuse/rebut that takes place in-thread adds to the information the goodguys have to work with.

5. Suggesting that we have Superman out himself and then vote for him doesn't help the village. That particular vote is screwed and offers no useful information because the motive is unclear on such a vote. It ends up being like forming a strategy for No Limit Hold 'em while playing for buttons, and then going to the casino and getting into a thousand dollar game. The stakes make the motive and strategies, and the motive and strategies is what we're working to uncover with each analysis.

6. In order to succeed here, then, we need votes on unknown players to go to critical or even lynch levels. Those are the events that give the goodguys info to crunch and numbers to play with.

7. The downside to the strategy is *usually* that it could end up forcing a special to uncloak. In this game and at this point, I'm not sure it hurts us as much as in other games. The other downside is obviously the lynching of an unpowered goodguy. Even that latter event gives the rest of the goodguys valuable information to work with, especially when those votes are thrown into relief when the first badguy is caught.

8. Positing that we forego all that and put off gleaning of valuable analysis until the team has possibly been whittled to 12 members seems to be a not very good idea for the goodguys, and seems in fact like the kind of nefarious plan that the badguys would try to "plant".

[Semaj]

6. In order to succeed here, then, we need votes on unknown players to go to critical or even lynch levels. Those are the events that give the goodguys info to crunch and numbers to play with.

7. The downside to the strategy is *usually* that it could end up forcing a special to uncloak. In this game and at this point, I'm not sure it hurts us as much as in other games. The other downside is obviously the lynching of an unpowered goodguy. Even that latter event gives the rest of the goodguys valuable information to work with, especially when those votes are thrown into relief when the first badguy is caught.

I think I have been doing this...

And I got another one for ya...

 Withdraw Grundbegrif 
 

 Mr Bubbles 
 


HIs whole holding off on his voting thing... seemed SO... well... bleh to me. "Eye am hear two save teh good peepz!"

Felt totally wolfish to me. So he could claim he got off a big vote on someone who wasn't a wolf (Well, if grund isnt one, no proof of that noise just yet)

Crap Maybe I am turning into Kraegor... I hope not, I liked being me, cry.

[triggercut]

Hey, if we lynch Grund and he pops up goodguy, you and Bubs rocket to the top of the suspects list.

Analysis at work.

[Grundbegriff]

Admission of error isn't in his toolset, and so he's led himself to be thoroughly outed as a badguy here.

Admission of error is most definitely in my toolset. However, I only use that tool when I've erred.

The exact statistical cost of killing Superman today is 2%, all else held constant and all human intelligence factored out. That's 2% well spent, because human intelligence is never factored out. Among other things, it liberates WW from having to play guardian over him, and it gives us another WW scan, another MM contact, and all the accumulated lore of today to work with. (The night death we'd suffer anyhow)

Repeat: the exact cost of spending Superman right now is 2%; the benefits far outweigh that 1/50, which is nearly invisible in the grand scheme of things.

5. Suggesting that we have Superman out himself and then vote for him doesn't help the village. That particular vote is screwed and offers no useful information because the motive is unclear on such a vote. It ends up being like forming a strategy for No Limit Hold 'em while playing for buttons, and then going to the casino and getting into a thousand dollar game. The stakes make the motive and strategies, and the motive and strategies is what we're working to uncover with each analysis.

6. In order to succeed here, then, we need votes on unknown players to go to critical or even lynch levels. Those are the events that give the goodguys info to crunch and numbers to play with.

7. The downside to the strategy is *usually* that it could end up forcing a special to uncloak. In this game and at this point, I'm not sure it hurts us as much as in other games.

Suppose it's Batman or WW....

I can see you're locked down in a battle of wills on this; no line of reasoning will move you.

The difference between using Superman today and wasting him on someday is real, but it probably won't swing the game. So suppose that Remus is off the table (since not even Sean, who outed him, wants him to be anything more than a placeholder). In that instance (and bracketing out your irrational, reactionary angle on me), whom do you suspect?

Know what I'd be doing right now, if I were evil? Sitting back and watching, and that's all. Those who have been co-evil with me know how often I counsel patience and quiet. Most of the evidence from this day will turn out to be wrinkles such as this one: who among those customarily engaged in deliberations is now just sitting back and watching the mutual undermining and autovitiation of the Justice League?

8. Positing that we forego all that and put off gleaning of valuable analysis until the team has possibly been whittled to 12 members seems to be a not very good idea for the goodguys, and seems in fact like the kind of nefarious plan that the badguys would try to "plant".

Again, the statistical difference is only 2%; the real debate has to do with whether you think the intel we'd gather by a likely teamkill (with possibly more Special-outings as we target friends instead of foes) is really that much more valuable than the intel we're already gathering and would gather while keeping all our lives and the rest of our secrets intact today.

[stessier]

Great Caesar's Ghost! 3+ pages since I left work.

Reading...

[stessier]

In fact, I've decided I need to do this for old time's sake:

I am Martian Manhunter. Remus was my contact last night. He claimed to be Superman without hesitation.

I say we find out.

Love you, Remus.

So we're going with the everyone come out scenario?

Reading...

[Semaj]

In fact, I've decided I need to do this for old time's sake:

I am Martian Manhunter. Remus was my contact last night. He claimed to be Superman without hesitation.

I say we find out.

Love you, Remus.

So we're going with the everyone come out scenario?

Reading...

Almost seems that way at this point.

[stessier]

Wow,

Okay, sign me up for the electric chair because Trig is wrong. Superman should be the lynch today.

Your big long list up there has a step where outing another Special isn't a bad thing. Fair enough, although I'd say that the remaining hidden Specials are even higher value targets than the current outed ones. Lose Batman and we're blind. Lose WW, and we're guessing. Lose Lantern, well, enough said. Wonder Twins...okay, maybe not all are higher value.

Then you say killing an Aquaman isn't a bad thing. Wrong. Killing an Aquaman increases the chances the Legion will hit a Special. We need all the remaining Specials, like, alot.

Also, you keep saying that lets the Legion get ahead. But Grund has clearly pointed out they don't get anything more than what they would have gotten anyway. And we get the guarantee of not Team kill versus a slim gamble at Enemy Kill. It just isn't worth it today.

That's really what the whole argument boils down to. Trig thinks the slim chance at getting a Doomer is worth the risk of losing a Haller. Everyone on the other side disagrees.

As for Grund's MM comments, I have to think about that some more. Chaos' clarifications kind of were sandwiched in with all the Super-killing talk and I want to re-read to make sure I understand.

[Unagi]

Grrrrr!!
I just deleted a long post.


Damn it (I'm extra pissed because some mother fucker stole my license plate off my scooter today!).

OK.

the short of my post was this:

1)I agree with triggercut regarding the 'Skip a Lynch' option. I think it's absurd to counter that with 'Hey, they will scan/kill tonight regardless of us skipping a lynch'.
2)I am totally willing to join this Grund lynch, but I'd like to see a vote-count so that I know I am not putting him over before he can make a last-second appeal.
3)(and this is when I erased the other post, so I am going to submit this and build my 3rd point seperately.... basically - I want to show Grund the posts around the Newcastle "claim" and what the issue I had with it was....

[Grundbegriff]

As for Grund's MM comments, I have to think about that some more. Chaos' clarifications kind of were sandwiched in with all the Super-killing talk and I want to re-read to make sure I understand.

Just think about everything I've said in relation to WW and strategy.

[Unagi]

Grund, your exchange with Newcastle went like this (I am editing out a bit from each post, feel free to bring up anything I deleted - I am just trying to show the order of the events and the timing)...

Ya know the funny thing about lynches is that they are a bit like sand, they can sometimes trickle through your fingers with no solidly, or they can all of a sudden form up with a splash of water to make mud and have some stick to it.

If there's a Wonder Twin out there who knows that Newcastle is not a Wonder Twin, the one in the know should step forward and refute this.

please dont read into that anymore than what it is grund; its not a hint or anything, its a simple rumination on lynches.

If no WT steps up to say he's lying, then I think we should take him at face value and kill Lassr instead.

please dont read into that anymore than what it is grund; its not a hint or anything, its a simple rumination on lynches.

It looked a lot like "form of, shape of" to me.

So... are you claiming to be a Special, or are you not? Enquiring triggercuts want to know.

If you're not, then we should lynch you. If you are, then we should assess your claim.

Yes, Grund - I know that you didn't read his first reply (4:54) until your 5:00 reply, but that's not really the jist of what I found strange.

It's the first two posts I have up there.

Newcastle speaks of water, and you call for a Wonder Twin to counter him. You don't ask him if he's claiming anything - you moved with his mention of Water and it seemed like you were calling for weak willed Wonder Twin to come forward. When I was reading the thread - my only thought was "Wait, Newcastle claimed a role? When, Where!?" - but you Grund were so sure that you demanded a Wonder Twin actually counter the "mention of water". I thought it was very weird. Again, to be clear - I was shocked to see you calling for verification and not for clarification first.

I will add that you then, upon reading that Newcastle was NOT claiming Wonder Twin with his mention of water, you then ask "So, are you claiming to be a Special, or are you not?" Were you trying to get him to out a little early there or what? He wasn't at (N-1) votes - he didn't need to make that final appeal - but you asked him to. The whole thing smelled.

[Unagi]

That's really what the whole argument boils down to. Trig thinks the slim chance at getting a Doomer is worth the risk of losing a Haller. Everyone on the other side disagrees.

We don't run the risk that we would lose a Haller, we run the risk of outing a Haller. How many days would you have us skip stessier? When would be the right time to start hunting the Legion of Doom. Tomorrow? Can we start tomorrow?

[stessier]

That's really what the whole argument boils down to. Trig thinks the slim chance at getting a Doomer is worth the risk of losing a Haller. Everyone on the other side disagrees.

We don't run the risk that we would lose a Haller, we run the risk of outing a Haller. How many days would you have us skip stessier? When would be the right time to start hunting the Legion of Doom. Tomorrow? Can we start tomorrow?

You have something against Aquaman? He is a member of and counts for the Hall. He dies, we lose a friend, comrade, and (more importantly) warm body (well, kinda - I'm not exactly sure really...still, he counts for us!). So yes, today it makes sense to use our free pass not to shoot ourselves in the foot!

[Grundbegriff]

My biggest issue with Grund was when he felt Newcastle made a "claim" of being a Wonder-Twin. He came out and demanded that a Wonder-Twin counter Newcastle's "claim" if they could. Newcastle actually replied that it wasn't a claim - and Grund continued to look for a Wonder-Twin to counter it.

I don't think that's true.

/me heads off to prove something from timestamps.

Here we go. I'm right:

Ya know the funny thing about lynches is that they are a bit like sand, they can sometimes trickle through your fingers with no solidly, or they can all of a sudden form up with a splash of water to make mud and have some stick to it.

This talk of trickling sand and the form of splashing water reminded me of the Wonder Twins and their famous invocation of power: "Wonder Twin powers-- activate! Form of <some liquid form>! Shape of <some non-liquid shape>!"

Is that unreasonable in context?

So I called him on it:

If there's a Wonder Twin out there who knows that Newcastle is not a Wonder Twin, the one in the know should step forward and refute this.

At 5:54 pm, Newcastle clarifies: "please dont read into that anymore than what it is grund; its not a hint or anything, its a simple rumination on lynches. also for the record - my comic hero geekness aint the best; so things you might reading in, i might just be having fun"

At 5:57pm, I'm still talking about the Wonder Twin issue, but that's because I was thinking through, and typing up, that message and hadn't yet seen Newc's clarification.

At 6:00pm, having posted my prior remark, I see Newc's clarification and respond: "It looked a lot like 'form of, shape of' to me. So... are you claiming to be a Special, or are you not? Enquiring triggercuts want to know. If you're not, then we should lynch you. If you are, then we should assess your claim."

In the next message, at 6:11pm, Newcastle responds with the requested clarification.

From that point forward, equipped with his clarification, I never float the NewcastleClaimsWondertwin meme again.

[Unagi]

That's really what the whole argument boils down to. Trig thinks the slim chance at getting a Doomer is worth the risk of losing a Haller. Everyone on the other side disagrees.

We don't run the risk that we would lose a Haller, we run the risk of outing a Haller. How many days would you have us skip stessier? When would be the right time to start hunting the Legion of Doom. Tomorrow? Can we start tomorrow?

You have something against Aquaman? He is a member of and counts for the Hall. He dies, we lose a friend, comrade, and (more importantly) warm body (well, kinda - I'm not exactly sure really...still, he counts for us!). So yes, today it makes sense to use our free pass not to shoot ourselves in the foot!

No stessier, you are asking to forfeight our chance to nab a bad guy.

You are wrong.

Normals have always been and will always be warm bodies - they are there for us to 'miss against' and they are there for the bad guys to 'hide amongst'.

We take our chances and look for evil... It's what heroes do stessier.

Although I now it seems like 'shooting ourselves in the foot' is what we do with our days... that's not why they exist. The day is OUR TURN. We don't say : "Um... Pass?"

[Unagi]

Here we go. I'm right:

Please read my assesment of the moment a few posts up. (and respond if you want)

I understand the point you are making Grund - it doesn't address what I found totally weird about it.

[Newcastle]

grund is currently at four i believe

Against Grundbegriff(4): Newcastle, Remus West, Sectoid, triggercut,

it was at 6
when Semaj and then Bubbles hopped on

however both of those released.


Also - keep in mind this folks...if we dont lynch today...we lose one days worth of data. So basically tomorrow will be an extended version of today, except we will most likely have a death on our hands.

We will have no real new information to work with (except WW's scan). We will have no pattern to work with to establish voting tendencies.

I can see the benefit to voting for superman, i truly can. But I think the value in voting for him, was if he were stealthed. What do we gain by voting for him when we know the result.

We gain 1/2 day in terms of cycles

We lose information on voting recrods and tendencies, basic data analysis
We also lose a chance to swipe at a bad guy

We might not end up on Grund and could end up on.....scoop let's say...but the information we glean from those records will be very informative, as well as the debates.

[Remus West]

Jesus F'ing Christ guys.

17 players. Assume 3 evil. We have 4 outed good, 3 specials. Means of the original 7 Aquamen there are 6 left. So the bad guys are choosing in a pool of 10 right now. Less 1 more if their scan last night did not happen to be Newcastle, triggercut, Sean, or myself. They get to kill one of those 10(9) tonight and scan another. They have a 30% chance of knowing who Wonderwoman is by the end of tonight regardless of what we do.

17 players
14 good 3 evil - lynch me
17 players
14 good 3 evil - night kill
13 good 3 evil - lynch
12 good 3 evil - kill
11 good 3 evil - lynch
10 good 3 evil - kill
9 good 3 evil - lynch
8 good 3 evil - kill
7 good 3 evil - lynch
6 good 3 evil - kill
5 good 3 evil - lynch
4 good 3 evil - kill
3 good 3 evil game over bad guys win. total misses (not including the "attempt on me" since I do not count) 5.

17 players
14 good 3 evil - lynch
13 good 3 evil - kill
12 good 3 evil - lynch
11 good 3 evil - kill
10 good 3 evil - lynch
9 good 3 evil - kill
8 good 3 evil - lynch
7 good 3 evil - kill
6 good 3 evil - lynch
5 good 3 evil - kill
4 good 3 evil - lynch
3 good 3 evil game over bad guys win. total misses 6.

Now can we please lynch Grundbegriff and the idiots calling for giving them time.

The Half-Day means we end with their kill rather than with our last miss. Whoop dee doo. It also costs us a shot at hitting one of them. If we try to get the bad guys everytime we have 6 chances. If you choose to lynch me then we have 5 chances. Half-day gain means exactly Jack-Shit. We get more attaempts to lynch an evil player by actually trying to do so. Duh.


Right now the rest of the Supers should think very hard about outing themselves. By doing so we can be certain that Sean never talks to any of us. That way the Bad Guys can not make use of the double kill effectively. Nor can the Bad Guys later spoof any one of you by claiming your role after they kill you. Remember, as long as Lex is alive they know who they have killed AND they get the scan to know who to go after. Say they scanned and found Green Lantern last night then kill Wonderwoman tonight and scan Batman. We just handed them 3 hiding holes that are going to cost us the game.
Come out Come out where ever you are. All of you.

 Grundbegriff 
 
he has done enough damage getting Sean to out himself. Let us end him.

[stessier]

No stessier, you are asking to forfeight our chance to nab a bad guy.

You are wrong.

Normals have always been and will always be warm bodies - they are there for us to 'miss against' and they are there for the bad guys to 'hide amongst'.

We take our chances and look for evil... It's what heroes do stessier.

Although I now it seems like 'shooting ourselves in the foot' is what we do with our days... that's not why they exist. The day is OUR TURN. We don't say : "Um... Pass?"

No, you say..."Here's a smaller pool to chose from, Good Luck Doomers!"

This role was made for my play style. It is the ultimate safe lynch! I've advocated taking out silent, likely good before since it would protect our specials and let them work their magic at night. Now here, on a silver platter, I have someone who doesn't hurt our body count and still let's the specials work! It's perfect!!!

You act like losing one of ours is a good thing because we might get one of theirs. It's so infuriating!!! WW can scan tonight. That's 2 people she will know!! We can get that info. That's a good thing! And she's hiding in with those normals. And what about Batman?? He's hiding in there too. Want to go back to the LOST Island style of lynching? Think it will be fun never knowing if a claimed Special is spoofing? Arghhh!!!

I'm going to bed.

[Newcastle]

duly noted unagi, and I can actually think of another reason for why you would suspect me as well. I think it goes back to the game where I was legion and I jumped in after you asked for information from teh forums...I think you kind of view in the same light as well.

Dang trigg, so certain to want to lynch me me. Yikes, kind o' being a big meanie there buddy. What can I do to help ease the tensions there? Man, that does actually hurt.

Ya know the funny thing about lynches is that they are a bit like sand, they can sometimes trickle through your fingers with no solidly, or they can all of a sudden form up with a splash of water to make mud and have some stick to it.

/goes into a yoga like indian sitting style pose, and exhales
"ohm"

ya know couple of things grund.

1. Why would i claim then to be a wonder twin? I would have left a clue as to whom I was way way way way earlier in the game.

If i were to claim it, i would have shouted out..."hey, i am wonder twin jojo";

2. I kind of thought the roleplaying at teh end there was a nice tag along with it. Guess you didn't see that

Grund - you have tells when you are a bad guy. You are the joker, i am almost certain of it, there is no other reason why you would be so out in front of all this if you werent.

[Grundbegriff]

Yes, Grund - I know that you didn't read his first reply (4:54) until your 5:00 reply

I'm glad you grant that I did not, after all, try to hold onto that idea.

but that's not really the jist of what I found strange.

It's the first two posts I have up there.

Newcastle speaks of water, and you call for a Wonder Twin to counter him. You don't ask him if he's claiming anything - you moved with his mention of Water and it seemed like you were calling for weak willed Wonder Twin to come forward.

He made a weird comment about form and water and sand. One of the Twins always changed into some variant of water, and the other into something dry. (For example, an octopus and an ice-unicycle. No, really.) Given the match of comment to lore, I thought it was obvious that he was dropping a super-conspicuous hint in an effort to deflect the bandwagon.

When someone steps up and claims Mason, what do you do? If he's lying, doesn't it make sense for one (but not both) of the real Masons to step up and rebut him? So that's what I called for.

When I was reading the thread - my only thought was "Wait, Newcastle claimed a role? When, Where!?" - but you Grund were so sure that you demanded a Wonder Twin actually counter the "mention of water". I thought it was very weird.

And yet my specific reference to the "mention of water" confirms that I was linking the form/sand/water thing to the Wonder Twins and taking it as a clear claim of WTness. So you're arguing for the complete non-suspiciousness of the thing that bugged you!

Again, to be clear - I was shocked to see you calling for verification and not for clarification first.

If I said something like "The funny thing about lynches is that sometimes they're hard like a robin's egg, fast like a car, or silver like moonlight", would you doubt that I was claiming Batmanliness?

I will add that you then, upon reading that Newcastle was NOT claiming Wonder Twin with his mention of water, you then ask "So, are you claiming to be a Special, or are you not?" Were you trying to get him to out a little early there or what?

I was seeking clarification as soon as his claim seemed ambiguous-- the very course of action you prescribe, and for neglecting which you wish to fault me.

He wasn't at (N-1) votes - he didn't need to make that final appeal - but you asked him to.

He had just (apparently accidentally and coincidentally) said something that seemed like a blatant Specialness-claim right when badguys do that sort of thing.

The whole thing smelled.

Your nose is broken.

[Lassr]

Holy crap! Batman, that is a lot to catch up on.

Quick scan and here are my thoughts:

I have never liked the kill an innocent villager method as a pass...BUT in this case it's not a kill. I need to think about this. I'd rather go after a LOD member but the no death adds a wrinkle to it. What really sets me against it is the fact that Grund now seems evil to me. Everything he does seem to revolve around outing specials to narrow down his hunt.

[Grundbegriff]

Here we go. I'm right:

Please read my assesment of the moment a few posts up. (and respond if you want)

I understand the point you are making Grund - it doesn't address what I found totally weird about it.

Let me guess-- timing isn't your strong point, right?

[Grundbegriff]

Jesus F'ing Christ guys.
...
Now can we please lynch Grundbegriff and the idiots calling for giving them time.
...
The Half-Day means we end with their kill rather than with our last miss. Whoop dee doo. It also costs us a shot at hitting one of them. If we try to get the bad guys everytime we have 6 chances. If you choose to lynch me then we have 5 chances. Half-day gain means exactly Jack-Shit. We get more attaempts to lynch an evil player by actually trying to do so. Duh.

Calm down. It's a 2% difference:


Right now, assuming credibility on the part of the Outeds, we have:
3 badguys
4 outed Supers: Newc + trig + Sean + Remus
10 goodguys

If we take a shot at one of the 13, the odds of killing a badguy are 3/13 (23%) and the odds of killing a goodguy are 11/13 (85%) since hitting Joker also kills a goodguy (unless Green Lantern negates).
Today, we probably kill a goodguy. New goodguy population = 9.
Tonight, we scan and they scan. Our odds of finding a badguy are 3/11 (27%). Their odds of finding WW are 1/9 (11%).
Tonight, they kill. New population: 3 badguys, 3 outed Supers, 9 goodguys (or 3 badguys, 4 outed Supers, 8 goodguys).
Tomorrow, where will we stand? Assuming WW misses the LoD, tomorrow our new odds of hitting a baddie will be 3/12 (25%) or 3/11 (27%).

Now lets run the odds with Superman's power in play.

If we take a shot at Remus, the odds of hitting a badguy are 0% and the odds of killing a goodguy are 0%.
Today, we definitely avoid killing a goodguy. New goodguy population = Old goodguy population = 10.
Tonight, we scan and they scan. Our odds of finding a badguy are 3/12 (25%). Their odds of finding WW are 1/10 (10%).
Tonight, they kill. New population: 3 badguys, 3 outed Supers, 10 goodguys (or 3 badguys, 4 outed Supers, 9 goodguys).
Tomorrow, where will we stand? Assuming WW misses the LoD, tomorrow our new odds of hitting a baddie will either be 3/13 (23%) or 3/12 (25%)

Right now the rest of the Supers should think very hard about outing themselves.

Do we presently have any reason to trust that you're Superman? Cuz you sure play sorcerously.

 Grundbegriff 
 
he has done enough damage getting Sean to out himself. Let us end him.

That was his play; I wouldn't have made it, and I never recommended it.

[Newcastle]

Right now the rest of the Supers should think very hard about outing themselves.

Do we presently have any reason to trust that you're Superman? Cuz you sure play sorcerously.

Uhm, yeah i think Remus is definitely confirmed as a good guy...they both claim contact....unless they are both evil, which i kind of doubt......

MARTIAN MANHUNTER CLARIFICATION:

Martian Manhunter must contact One Other Player each Night. He may contact the same person on consecutive nights. If either is the Target of the Villains, both will Die that Night.
**if the actual target is Lassoed the attack is prevented
*** in the event the Target is unprotected, the Lasso will save the Protected Connected
**** in the event the Contact is a Villain, the Villain *WILL* die

[Grundbegriff]

ya know couple of things grund.

1. Why would i claim then to be a wonder twin?

I have no idea. That's not the special I would fake, were I evil. I explained this earlier. It's foolish to emulate someone who can rebut.

I would have left a clue as to whom I was way way way way earlier in the game.

I thought you had! Specifically, you said "/fastens the jumpsuits a bit and heads out for a smoke". Why would you fasten "jumpsuits" instead of "jumpsuit"?

In my "Fifth Point" post, I called attention to this apparent breadcrumbing: "In his jumpsuits post, Newcastle hints at being a Wondertwin...."

If i were to claim it, i would have shouted out..."hey, i am wonder twin jojo";

Maybe. I guess in mid-bandwagon a person might very well just toss out big, broad hints. Scoop does that sort of thing all the time.

Grund - you have tells when you are a bad guy. You are the joker, i am almost certain of it, there is no other reason why you would be so out in front of all this if you werent.

You've obviously not yet aware that I lack tells. How do you think I survived when I had been scanned 7 times on the Battlestar Galactica? How do you think I survived until the final three and won the Controlled KAOS game?

I'm out in front because I'm always out in front when I play; I'm one of the leader types in this neighborhood.

[Newcastle]

You've obviously not yet aware that I lack tells. How do you think I survived when I had been scanned 7 times on the Battlestar Galactica? How do you think I survived until the final three and won the Controlled KAOS game?

I'm out in front because I'm always out in front when I play; I'm one of the leader types in this neighborhood.

and who cried wolf in the kaos game? you sir, have tells and are not as infallible as you think...actually nevermind, you're perfect, you are absolultely perfect. You have no tells


/looks out at everyone...

can we please lynch this joker....and yes...i do mean joker....he is doing more harm than good right now.

[Grundbegriff]

Right now the rest of the Supers should think very hard about outing themselves.

Do we presently have any reason to trust that you're Superman? Cuz you sure play sorcerously.

Uhm, yeah i think Remus is definitely confirmed as a good guy...they both claim contact....unless they are both evil, which i kind of doubt......

I know. I was ribbing him. That's why I said "sorcerously" rather than "Doomishly".

[triggercut]

Hmm. Let's try Grundmath a little further.

17 players.

4 are known.

13 players remain.

5 of those 13 are specials. They'll presumably speak up if they get within two votes of being lynched. So that's a red herring.

That leaves 8 players.

3 of them are badguys.

38% odds we get one of them today.

I'll take a 38% chance of getting a badguy in one of these games 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

To be more illustrative: I hand you a bag with 3 blue gumballs in it and 14 red gumballs in it. You must remove the gumballs one at a time, until you get all three blue gumballs out, at which point you win a prize. If you remove red gumballs without getting blue gumballs until there's an equal number of both in the bag, you lose.

Now, I offer to "help" you out by removing one or two red gumballs from the bag for you, just to make it a little more likely you'll pull a blue gumball. Are you wise to accept that "help", or would you rather take your chances with leaving 14 red gumballs in the bag?

The answer is obvious and clear.

stessier and Grundbegriff are doomboys. Kraegor may be as well. String 'em all up, let Zeus sort 'em out.

[triggercut]

In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Can those of you waffling on Grund maybe revisit this piece of ingenious strategic advice for me?

[Grundbegriff]

What really sets me against it is the fact that Grund now seems evil to me. Everything he does seem to revolve around outing specials to narrow down his hunt.

You know this is nonsense.

I opposed the mass outing that Remus proposed.
I had nothing to do with triggercut's outing as Green Arrow, and criticized it as a minor blunder.
I had nothing to do with Sean's outing as the Martian Manhunter, and criticized it as a misstep.
I have lobbied for Wonder Woman to stay hidden (against Remus's cries to the contrary).
I have emphasized the importance of keeping Batman under wraps.
The only Special whose outing I have endorsed and promoted is Superman, and that's because the relevance of his power diminishes over time-- especially in view of the fact that Sean apparently outed him.

So where's all this "outing specials" of mine that leads you to think I'm evil?

[Semaj]

In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Can those of you waffling on Grund maybe revisit this piece of ingenious strategic advice for me?

I said this way before you did...

[triggercut]

Those of you still being bamboozled by some fuzzy math on behalf of the Doomboys, let me run this past you:

There are four proven and known players in the game right now. Their motives for the goodguy team are unassailable.

3 of those four are calling out with clear voice that Grundbegriff is evil, all three having arrived at that conclusion independently.

[Grundbegriff]

In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Can those of you waffling on Grund maybe revisit this piece of ingenious strategic advice for me?

I can't believe how thick the members of this League are.

We don't deserve victory over the Legion with talent like this....

Lookie here-- Remember what I said about how best to discuss Wonder Woman's options? Remember how I said it was important to obfuscate and keep the Legion guessing about what she'd do? Remember my emphasis on discussing a range of possibilities and providing misdirection?

Amateurs.

[triggercut]

In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Can those of you waffling on Grund maybe revisit this piece of ingenious strategic advice for me?

I said this way before you did...

Yeah, I meant to get back to it, because if Grund was running an outrageous gambit on the "Lynch Superman" goofy-ness, I think here he overreached even for him to try to get two goodguys dead on Monday night.

[triggercut]

Lookie here-- Remember what I said about how best to discuss Wonder Woman's options? Remember how I said it was important to obfuscate and keep the Legion guessing about what she'd do? Remember my emphasis on discussing a range of possibilities and providing misdirection?

Ah, yes, I missed the broad wink and fingers crossed behind your back when you stepped in it that deep. The old "make a suggestion that cements my guilt and try to pass it off as misdirection" ploy. Third time I've fallen for it this week!

[Grundbegriff]

It seems to me that Superman should step forward for the lynching. That's his one and only power anyhow, and using it saves us a turn and allows us to learn more so that our aim will be better tomorrow. Presumably, WW could even protect one of {Green Arrow, Superman, Newcastle} so that we definitely enter tomorrow with at least two thirds of our trusted contingent.

So you would have us spend our move today AND waste Wonderwoman's scan tonight by having her protect one of the knowns rather than look for a villain?

Not necessarily; I'd have her be mysterious and leave the LoD wondering what she might do, rather than spell out the tactics in exhaustive detail so the LoD needn't fear tonight's decision.

[Grundbegriff]

Those of you still being bamboozled by some fuzzy math on behalf of the Doomboys, let me run this past you:

There are four proven and known players in the game right now. Their motives for the goodguy team are unassailable.

3 of those four are calling out with clear voice that Grundbegriff is evil, all three having arrived at that conclusion independently.

I can't believe how scared you are. Don't you read Chabon?

[triggercut]

"here are 17 gumballs in a sack. 3 are blue and 14 are red. You want to pull the blue ones out. If you want, I'll remove one or two red ones before you start, to increase your odds of getting a blue one."

Yes, yes. The odds of me pulling a blue one with all 14 red gumballs on my first pick are pretty long. The odds of me pulling a blue one on my first pick if I pass it and allow you to remove a couple of red gumballs first? Yeah, nonexistent, and as any statistician can show, you've now made it more likely you'll fail to get all the blue gumballs out before you run out of reds.