WW - OO JL : Game Over

[Chaosraven]

Rules clarifications:

Timing -
Martian Manhunter is allowed to begin his PM as soon as it is Night. He *must* contact his Target.

Wonder Woman Compulsion, Lex Luthor Scan, and Villains Target are "simultaneous" (Neither Wonder Woman nor the Villains receive Scan info before Morning)

Green Lantern is allowed to use his Ring during either Day or Night Phase (but not both) of a particular (dayname).
For example, he would be allowed to use it Thursday Night if it had not been used Thursday Day, and then again on Friday Day or Night. In the event he uses it at Night, it would be considered Legal at any time before Morning is announced. In the event he uses it during the Day, it would be considered Legal at any time before Majority Vote is reached.

At such a time as Green Lantern submits the order to use his Ring, the Target is notified that their powers no longer function (whatever they may be). As noted in the "What Happens When GL Targets Me?" post on Page One, in the case of MM, it will cause PM Communication to cease and cancel the Double Kill.

[Remus West]

Time to go back and read all of Sectoid's posts to figure out which Super he was since there was really no point to killing him otherwise. He must have been the first night scan to get targeted last night for the kill. Either that or (very remotely) there was actually a protection first night and they wanted to get a convert last night. Either way though it means Sectoid was a Super.

Scoop, you have anything to tell us today?

[Austin]

Are we coming out today, and in what order?

[Scoop20906]

Are we coming out today, and in what order?

I say negative on that. We can achieve a win without mass outing.

[Scoop20906]

Scoop, you have anything to tell us today?

I am still alive.

After a quick examination, Sectoid seemed to be implicating Austin and Lassr which leads me to think they might be innocent.

I am still convinced that Stessier is part of the LoD but Remus, my friend, why are you so interested in me?

[Remus West]

:SIGH: Does Auqaman have to explain everything?

I think I see what Remus is talking about. I am down with the reveal plan.

My super idenity is.....

COTTON MOUTH!

Cotton Mouth: Villain turned Super Hero whose sole super power allows him to dislocate his jaw and eat you. BEWARE LEX LUTHOR. Ye doom has come.

[Unagi]

While I agree with Scoop that we could win without our heroes stepping up today, I don't see why we would set ourselves up for such an obvious folly. If sectoid was Batman or Wonderwoman, today would be the last day for a hero to be accepted with at least some ability to test them. (specifically, batman leaves us blind - we leaves us scanless)

Today we can still test for hero/villian. After today, everything changes.

But yeah Scoop. What's your neck size again?


(I have a 10-4 meeting today, wed, and thurs. There will be a couple breaks.

[Unagi]

that "we leaves us scanless" should read "ww leaves us scanless" my iPhone auto corrected me. erroneously.

[Scoop20906]

:SIGH: Does Auqaman have to explain everything?

I don't think I could make this any clearer...

I think I see what Remus is talking about. I am down with the reveal plan.

My super idenity is.....

COTTON MOUTH!

Cotton Mouth: Villain turned Super Hero whose sole super power allows him to dislocate his jaw and eat you. BEWARE LEX LUTHOR. Ye doom has come.

This was just me having fun!

[Austin]

:SIGH: Does Auqaman have to explain everything?

I don't think I could make this any clearer...

Are you counter claiming Superman?

[stessier]

Are we coming out today, and in what order?

I say negative on that. We can achieve a win without mass outing.

True, but why increase our level of difficulty? We're not getting style points here.

I still stink at math. I'm going to try running some numbers in a minutes and seeing what they say. My gut tells me if everyone comes out, and if WW is still alive, we can't lose. Particularly if Batman is also alive and can give us confidence in a lynch today.

[stessier]

Scoop, you have anything to tell us today?

I am still alive.

After a quick examination, Sectoid seemed to be implicating Austin and Lassr which leads me to think they might be innocent

Say what!?!

You are somehow suggesting Sectoid wanted to "implicate" Austin and Lassr? Why?? To mislead us?? Again, why??? He was a member of the Hall.

Good gosh man, what are you thinking!?! Are you hoping/know GL was killed last night so you don't mind exploding today???

[Scoop20906]

Scoop, you have anything to tell us today?

I am still alive.

After a quick examination, Sectoid seemed to be implicating Austin and Lassr which leads me to think they might be innocent

Say what!?!

You are somehow suggesting Sectoid wanted to "implicate" Austin and Lassr? Why?? To mislead us?? Again, why??? He was a member of the Hall.

Good gosh man, what are you thinking!?! Are you hoping/know GL was killed last night so you don't mind exploding today???

Lets take the thinking a step further, Stessier. Sectoid is killed by the LoD. Sectoid implicates Lassr and Austin. It would be TOO obvious for them to kill someone who is directly implicating them so they kill someone who is implicating two innocent people to throw of the trail. That is my thinking. I don't think Sectoid was attempting to mislead. I think the LoD could be using him.

[Kraegor]

in other words you are evil scoop.

cuz... wtf would they kill an unknown. one that they could hide behind and by extension leave the "trusted" pool fully in tact?

1) presumption he had powers.

that's the ONLY reason to kill him. a halfassed scheme to counter use sectoid by his accusations... are you actually using a worm on that hook? you realize none of us actually like grubs?

[Scoop20906]

I don't think I could make this any clearer ...

Are you counter claiming Superman?

[Semaj]

Lets do a newcastle:

Plausible options.

Night option 1)Night 1 - no conversion, Night 2, person killed.

Night option 2)Night 1, Conversion, Night 2 kill.

Sectoid death Reasoning 1)Sectoid was onto something so badly day 1 they had to off him.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 2)Sectoid was a random unknown they decided to off rather than risk losing a kill fighting WW's possible protection scheme.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 3)Sectoid was found to be something that had to die. Like WW.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 4)Sectoid was a kill attempt night 1 and it failed.
--------------------------------------------------

My guess is, Sectoid was either scanned night 1 or They attempted to kill him night 1 and failed. As such it gives me 2 real guesses as to the identity of Sectoid.

I'm assuming Sectoid was scanned night 1 and found to be a powered they really want dead. As such if when we lynch today and dont find out the outcome, it was batman. If we kill and find out the outcome, we are in for a world of hurt figuring out who is a wolf.

But I will be rereading shortly to figure out if he was onto something or dropped a big enough hint somewhere they felt he needed to die.

[Mr Bubbles]

Lets do a newcastle:

Plausible options.

Night option 1)Night 1 - no conversion, Night 2, person killed.

Night option 2)Night 1, Conversion, Night 2 kill.

Sectoid death Reasoning 1)Sectoid was onto something so badly day 1 they had to off him.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 2)Sectoid was a random unknown they decided to off rather than risk losing a kill fighting WW's possible protection scheme.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 3)Sectoid was found to be something that had to die. Like WW.

Sectoid Death Reasoning 4)Sectoid was a kill attempt night 1 and it failed.
--------------------------------------------------

My guess is, Sectoid was either scanned night 1 or They attempted to kill him night 1 and failed. As such it gives me 2 real guesses as to the identity of Sectoid.

I'm assuming Sectoid was scanned night 1 and found to be a powered they really want dead. As such if when we lynch today and dont find out the outcome, it was batman. If we kill and find out the outcome, we are in for a world of hurt figuring out who is a wolf.

But I will be rereading shortly to figure out if he was onto something or dropped a big enough hint somewhere they felt he needed to die.

I think one thing we need to add is a possibility that he accused someone who was innocent, but was lynched to throw us off the trail.

[Lassr]

in other words you are evil scoop.

cuz... wtf would they kill an unknown. one that they could hide behind and by extension leave the "trusted" pool fully in tact?

Look who's talking...remember the Lost game.

I figure they either saw some tell that made them think he was someone or they scanned him.
The killing just to try and frame someone is always brought up but it rarely is the real reason someone is chosen.

Although I know I'm innocent I cannot and will not vouch for Austin even though I have not seen the evil tendencies in this game like I've seen in others. I will not and cannot ever trust him completely.

[Lassr]

I think one thing we need to add is a possibility that he accused someone who was innocent, but was lynched to throw us off the trail.

Scoop said that earlier. You and him are pushing the same agenda. You need to coordinate a little better though.

[Mr Bubbles]

I think one thing we need to add is a possibility that he accused someone who was innocent, but was lynched to throw us off the trail.

Scoop said that earlier. You and him are pushing the same agenda. You need to coordinate a little better though.

You're trying a little too hard there buddy. Trying to nudge the suspicion? Good try though Lassr.

[stessier]

I still stink at math. I'm going to try running some numbers in a minutes and seeing what they say. My gut tells me if everyone comes out, and if WW is still alive, we can't lose. Particularly if Batman is also alive and can give us confidence in a lynch today.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but there are still a lot of ways we can lose. This surprises me. A lot depends on who Sectoid was, if the LoD gets to set off Joker's bomb, if MM is killed while visiting a Special, and if Monday was a conversion.

So today we have 15 players

Of the 15 Players - Newcastle, GA, MM, and Superman are confirmed (at least in my book), leaving 11 unknown

Assume worst case - 3 Evil, 8 Good Guys.

Remaining Specials are 5 :WTx2, Batman, WW, and GL
Assume worst case - Special was killed last night so only 4 are left...we just don't know which 4.

So if remaining Specials come out, that leaves 8 known (4 confirmed, plus my guess at 4 revealing today), and 7 Unknown.

8,7 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
7,6 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
6,5 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
5,4 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
4,3 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known (all Evil is Known!)
3,2 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
2,1 -> Lynch unknown, GOOD GUYS WIN

If Joker explodes (really doesn't matter when, but I put it when they are all outed), then
8,7 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
7,6 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
6,5 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
5,4 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
4,3 -> lynch Joker, BOOM, LoD Kills known (all Evil is Known!)
2,2 -> GOOD GUYS LOSE

MM getting killed while talking to a Special is the same as Joker Exploding. So if we dodge the Joker BOOM, we still have to dodge the MM death.

If MM dies while talking to an unknown (again, doesn't really matter when), then
8,7 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known (MM talking to unknown)
7,5 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
6,4 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
5,3 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known (all Evil is Known!)
4,2 -> lynch unknown, LoD Kills known
3,1 -> lynch unknown, GOOD GUYS WIN

If MM dies while talking to an unknown, and Joker goes BOOM, it is a wash and we are back to the first scenario where we win.

Now, if we actually have 5 Specials come out today, can we trust them?

• If WW lives and comes out, I'm suspicious of her if she lasts a night.
• If Batman lives and comes out, we know a fake when we don't learn who we lynch
• If WT's live and come out...well, they darn well better tell us if their partner is a fake!!!
• If GL lives and comes out...this one they can actually fake. The only way for us to prove it is to have GL flash a trusted Special. But that opens us up to a Joker BOOM. I have to think about this some more.

So there's my crummy attempt at math. I think it makes sense for MM reasons and LoD faking reasons to have everyone come out today.

Am I missing anything?

[Remus West]

The way I see it there are two very very large reasons why all the remaining Supers MUST come forward today.

1) As long as Sean has to choose at random from the pool of unknowns he is a liability to us. Once all the Supers are known then he can not be killed at night without them also killing one of the pool of unknowns (which helps us). We can not afford to have them off Sean and another Super who was still in hiding. We can afford to have them off Sean and an Aquaman that we did not know was JLA. Once all the Supers have come forward then Sean speaks only to the pool of unknowns. Thus they remove part of their cover by killing him rather than getting to take down two supers for the price of 1.

2) Sectoid had to have been a Super. Killing him otherwise makes absolutely ZERO sense. Frame this person, frame that person. BS. Sectoid had to have been the first scan and found to be one of Green Lantern, Wonderwoman, or Batman. Nobody else makes sense for them to kill. Taking down a Wonder-Twin. Meh. They still can not claim the role since the other is still out there.

Therefore, we risk, even today, a LoD member hiding in our revealed Supers. Everyday we wait for the rest of you to come forward gives them more time to gain cover. Suppose Sectoid was Batman. Then tonight they manage to get Wonderwoman. We will never be able to tell if the fake WW is lying because we will not be getting lynch results. Works the same the other way for those roles.

15 players currently.
4 known to the JLA.
8 known to the LoD. That is assuming they scanned Sectoid. Otherwise they now know 9 of the remaining AND what Sectoid's role was.
They likely already know who their next target is for both scan and kill.

SUPERS NEED TO COME FORWARD TODAY. AS IN NOW RATHER THAN LATER.

[Lassr]

stuff

I think that looks good. The one thing about coming out, if WW is still alive she will be the first to go, she cannot protect herself. If Sectoid was WW then GL will be killed to free up the joker to bomb who he wishes. Once WW is dead, MM will have no protection and we could lose 2 in one night (assuming she has not already protected MM then she can't do it again anyhow). Just something to think about.

[Remus West]

BTW, I am not particularly worried about the LoD faking roles today but I will not get into that until everyone has come forward.

[Semaj]

Sectoid was pretty much all over austin (As much as his utter lack of doing anything says). Voting for him, keeping his vote on him most of the day and then saying he should have kept his vote on austin.

He once outed Kraegor as a possible villain

I have a full ass, thank you very much... wait no that doesn't sound right...

Now if you would just come out of the closet about being Lex or the Joker everything would be A-OK.

The real question is are we mass outting, because if so I'm not bothering to go through a threat matrix.

[Lassr]

e killed at night without them also killing one of the pool of unknowns (which helps us). We can not afford to have them off Sean and another Super who was still in hiding. We can afford to have them off Sean and an Aquaman that we did not know was JLA. Once all the Supers have come forward then Sean speaks only to the pool of unknowns. Thus they remove part of their cover by killing him rather than getting to take down two supers for the price of 1.

excellent point. They would have to hold off killing MM.

This should work!

[Semaj]

e killed at night without them also killing one of the pool of unknowns (which helps us). We can not afford to have them off Sean and another Super who was still in hiding. We can afford to have them off Sean and an Aquaman that we did not know was JLA. Once all the Supers have come forward then Sean speaks only to the pool of unknowns. Thus they remove part of their cover by killing him rather than getting to take down two supers for the price of 1.

excellent point. They would have to hold off killing MM.

This should work!

Been saying this since everyone panicked about the math the first time on day 1 when Trig was pushing this. Why is everyone not calling this the "Semaj's MM Guide to winning the game theory"?

[Semaj]

I also wanna know Newcastles thought on a mass outting. Isnt that what we decided NOT to do yesterday because it wasnt in the spirit of the game?

[Mr Bubbles]

At the very least we need everyones input before we do this. I suggest we wait and see if everyone will do it. A partial outing will not do anyone any good. I am leaning toward it, but honestly we need 100% cooperation if it will work.

[triggercut]

Scoop and Bubbles are suspects 1 and 1a right now.

Yes, everyone should out themselves today. I have *no* idea why Sectoid was picked; it *does* sort of seem like a clumsy frameup, perhaps...or perhaps we got a protection on night one and Sectoid was a Super who a conversion was attempted on.

Evidence against Scoop and Bubs forthcoming....

[Remus West]

At the very least we need everyones input before we do this. I suggest we wait and see if everyone will do it. A partial outing will not do anyone any good. I am leaning toward it, but honestly we need 100% cooperation if it will work.

Bull. Anyone that comes forward today is one less person for us to risk having Sean stumble upon tonight so even a partial reveal is helpful.

As for being in the spirit of the game, yesterday it was a "game broken win" mechanic possibility. Today it is a "let's not lose the game" play. Giving the LoD time to kill Supers and thus hide as those Super is suicide. Regardless of the advantage you may feel it gives us not doing a reveal give the LoD much much more. At this stage a mass reveal does not make certain we win I think. I have not done the math yet. It also hinges on who Sectoid was.

[Remus West]

Scoop and Bubbles are suspects 1 and 1a right now.

Yes, everyone should out themselves today. I have *no* idea why Sectoid was picked; it *does* sort of seem like a clumsy frameup, perhaps...or perhaps we got a protection on night one and Sectoid was a Super who a conversion was attempted on.

Evidence against Scoop and Bubs forthcoming....

Please hold off on any evidence against anyone for now. Let the unknowns voice their opinions and theories before we start putting ours forward any more than we have.

[Scoop20906]

Ok, after reading about MM and WW, I am fine with the MASS outing plan so there is a yea vote here.

At what point do we decide to come out? I am ready.

Also, Trig, don't waste your time on me. I am not LoD so anything you dig up on me will just be wrong and waste everyone's time. Of course, if you enjoy wasting people's time then go ahead. I'm not going to fight too hard against whatever you say anyway cause it will all be wrong.

[Lassr]

I also wanna know Newcastles thought on a mass outting. Isnt that what we decided NOT to do yesterday because it wasnt in the spirit of the game?

Yes, doing it on day 1 is not fun or any outing before the bad guys can find a place to hide takes away a lot of the fun of the game. There has been a death now so an outing leaves the possibility of the LOD faking a role (although in this game, faking a role is not a long term possibility. all supers can prove themselves eventually somehow).

[triggercut]

Scoop and Bubbles are suspects 1 and 1a right now.

Yes, everyone should out themselves today. I have *no* idea why Sectoid was picked; it *does* sort of seem like a clumsy frameup, perhaps...or perhaps we got a protection on night one and Sectoid was a Super who a conversion was attempted on.

Evidence against Scoop and Bubs forthcoming....

Please hold off on any evidence against anyone for now. Let the unknowns voice their opinions and theories before we start putting ours forward any more than we have.

Fair enough.

But there are definitely some things to look at.

[Lassr]

and if it hasn't been clear in my posts. I'm in favor now of the reveal.

[Mr Bubbles]

Scoop and Bubbles are suspects 1 and 1a right now.

Yes, everyone should out themselves today. I have *no* idea why Sectoid was picked; it *does* sort of seem like a clumsy frameup, perhaps...or perhaps we got a protection on night one and Sectoid was a Super who a conversion was attempted on.

Evidence against Scoop and Bubs forthcoming....

I would love to see the evidence against me.... Im drooling.

[Scoop20906]

BAH, you all are so worried about protecting our specials yet we have already outed two of them. My personal opinion is that everyone left save maybe WW should come out after reading some of the theories present.

Remus, you are hella worried I will contend your superman claim. I ain't. I am just an aquaman trying to pull a LoD kill onto myself last night but it didn't work out. Sectoid got taken down and it seems he was probably scanned Sunday. The only way we can learn if he was a Sup would be for everyone to claim their roles.

Just for the record, I am Aquaman. Ok, flame me for revealing.

[Mr Bubbles]

Fine. Just to give Trig a headache I'll out myself now. I am Green Lantern.

[Scoop20906]

See, thats me on the right. Superman is so dumb that Aquaman has to explain the comic plot to him. DUH!!