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WW - OO JL : Game Over

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Chaosraven
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Chaosraven »

Newcastle wrote:if MM contacted me....and MM was targeted would both MM and myself die? or is it just me? just trying to be ultra clear here.
Both would die.
You cannot be the Target, but you can be killed.

--------------------------------------

Against Remus West(2): Grundbegriff, Sean, Minister of KtSP
Against Grundbegriff(4): Newcastle, Remus West, Sectoid, triggercut,
Against Newcastle(1): Kraegor
Against Scoop20906(3): Lassr, Unagi, stessier
Against stessier(2): Scoop20906, Semaj
Against tru1cy(1): tru1cy
Against JimDave(1): Austin

No Votes Registered: JimDave, Mr Bubbles, RevHempus71
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Kraegor »

triggercut wrote:
Kraegor wrote:How is it all the powered guys are dense?
We can also take Grund's henchman Kraegor out whenever we feel like it.

At this point anything either says is all pops, buzzes, and clicks to me.
You've got an odd playstyle. Hulk smash! Anywho, ignoring everything except what you want to see is generally not the wisest course of action. Presume I am your enemy: Know your enemy better than you know yourself. It's an axiom of sorts.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Three of four votes on Grundbegriff are cast by knowns.

Kraegor's vote is on Newcastle. Still.

Sean is misguided right now in voting against Remus, but he'll see the light.

Join us, won't you?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

so that brings the next bit - we could then send MM on to talk to someone whom we thought was evil? right.

so sean would then go talk to Bubba; if bubba dies...then we know he was evil. So in effect it could be a night kill for the good guys. Am i reading that right?

The problem with that is we still have 5 good guys still hidden, batman, WW, green lantern, and the wonder twins.

so now...we have 13 people left from him to choose (remus, Sean, trigg, and Newc excempt).

8 of those we are curious to affirm meaning the odds of hitting a non special or a bad guy are 50% plus.

Also have to figure that the bad guys will also narrow that pool of 13 (to them it's 10) down at least 1 more IF they are going to attack one of the unknowns in hopes of hitting WW.

The risk I think is that if they narrow the unknown pool, they also narrow their own hiding spot.

If they take out the knowns it expands their hididng area at teh cost of potentially being revealed by WW.

i think tonight they will take out one of hte knowns, unless they know who WW is.

Also CR's note above confirms that Remus is indeed Superman. MM would act as a mine detector if he had encountered evil.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Yes, if Sean contacted an evil player, he wouldn't claim a role to him, he'd claim Aquaman status.

As far as I'm concerned, Remus is confirmed.

Grundbegriff wisely noted that they had to play a hail mary gambit, which is what "lynch superman!" was. Let's please not let that work for them?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

Grund: Your miss strategy has one minor minor flaw....

The Evil guys have a scan... As such they can search for Bat's and WW freely when we use supes miss. This is what point they are trying to hammer home. Its saves a miss, but gives them more time to look for the people they fear most. Yes yes I know WW is also scanning, but a feww scan for them is probably better than a free scan for us since they pool they scan has 2 or 3 less in it.

Supes miss is phenominal when we dont know we are using it. But now that he's outted, trying to save it isnt a bad ploy. Killing him is by far and away their best move, but they dont know what WW is going to do. Do they shoot blindly at people, do they go for him and hope she isnt protecting? They have a _lot_ of work on their hands.

The question is, how can you not have figured this into all your arguing...
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:Giving up that lynch--even one day--is more harmful than deliberately choosing not to lynch someone. Doing so basically results in the badguys getting a free turn.
Just to ensure that everyone reflects on why this is incorrect:

We lynch a Legionnaire: Badguys get a kill attempt tonight.
We lynch a teammate: Badguys get a kill attempt tonight.
We lynch Superman's extra life: Badguys get a kill attempt tonight.

Either way, assuming no defense, Badguys are +1.0 no matter what.
Meanwhile, we have to weigh a small chance of +1.0 against a certain chance of +.5 and, sadly, a high likelihood of -1.0.
You know what -1.0 for Justice League is? That's right, it's equivalent to +1 for the Doomsters.

Therefore, the only way the Doomsters "get a free turn" is if we teamkill, which, as it happens, is the thing we're most likely to do if we don't cash in the extra life and choose instead to roll the dice.
In other words, following Grund's suggestion allows the badguys to (presumably) convert AND kill AND know the true ID of three players before the village gets to try to lynch ONE of them.
Following triggercut's advice allows the badguys to (presumably) convert AND kill AND know the true ID of three players AND watch the village do their work for them. The only way this doesn't happen is if we're lucky enough to nail Lex or Harley.
Grund has played it desperate as a strategy here, hoping that these points wouldn't occur to folks. They seem to have occurred to most of us, sad for him.
I've been calling attention to these points all along. The only difference between us is that I actually do (and show) the math to confirm that I'm right about what our best move is.

Again: Why is there a Superman, and when is he best used? And (thanks to Sean) how do we conserve him until then without going blind?
He's a bad guy. Take him out.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Let me break down the math like this:

When the game started we were 15 Good guys vs. 2 badguys.

Sunday night presumably the badguys got a conversion.

14 goodguys vs. 3 badguys.

Now Grundbegriff and Kraegor are positing that voluntarily making it with all surety 13 goodguys vs. 3 badguys with 4 people outed and the badguys getting two scans is a GOOD thing for the village.

Now is the damage that play obviously causes the JLA clear?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Grund wants you all to think Superman is something in this game he isn't: he isn't best used as a "No Lynch!" for the JLA.

Instead, the best use of Superman is for him to stay cloaked, accumulate votes against him, and thus use those votes in vote analyzation patterns.

Again, this isn't a math problem, it's a logic problem: can we kill a badguy without lynching?

No.

We have to lynch someone.

Thankfully, we know who the badguys are, so we don't need to worry about a miss. Take out Grundbegriff and we wake tomorrow with this almost wrapped up.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

Kraegor wrote:Take it a step further trig. Grund's strategy is not as flawed as you perceive it.

Extending the death of the Martian benefits the evils.
Extending the "lynch" of Superman benefits the goods. i.e. save Superman for when we need him.

IF Remus is not Superman, someone please come forward so we can confirm.

No absolute lynch of Remus required until then
The problem is that now that he's out (if indeed he's out), they'll kill him by night ASAP. Therefore, one of two things happens: either we lose the extra life benefit, or WW is tied up with protecting him until we cash that benefit in.

Both should be regarded as unacceptable. We need to grab that half point while we can.
1) Lynching Superman today guarantees usage of the freebie lynch.
2) Saving him for later puts that lynch at risk but may pay off at a more critical moment.

Option 1 = no risk, safe yield.
Option 2 = high risk, unknown yield.
In neither case does he gain us more than +0.5. What future scenario do you envision that will make it worthwhile to expend the resources that keep him alive until then?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

You know I am really wondering now if last night was a protection and not a conversion?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Kraegor »

triggercut wrote: Kraegor's vote is on Newcastle. Still.
oh sorry,  Newcastle 
 


there, better? Trig I realize you wish to run full tilt and finish the game yesterday. You take too much for granted. I prefer to check the corners.

At present, Grund does look like the best choice for lynch. I'm simply waiting for the opportune moment.

1) Grund is being too nice to me
2) The arrow altered the landscape more drastically than Grund would have preferred.
3) Martian known creates a usable tool for the evil. It helps us minimally.
4) Known superman creates an extra target of opportunity for LoD.
5) Rushing the lynch is idiocy. First must be reconciled the concept of mass outing.
6) Killing superman vs not is a half day edge in either direction.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:We can lynch this badguy too, folks.
If Superman's extra life, which only the villagers can ever trigger, is so very bad for the village, shouldn't he be named Toxicman? In what sense does his power benefit the village, if not the sense I've outlined?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

think of it this way -

1. WW lasso's Superman (remus)

2. MM - contacts superman

3. WW protection hits bot

4. Bad guys try to either take out or convert Remus....

bad guys blocked.

Why convert remus? He is a pretty good bad guy. He's got experience at doing it. And you never know if one of the bad guys had a kick of nostalgia of wanting to join up with Remus. Or maybe the bad guys simply wanted Remus on their team.

Just thinking outloud is all.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Kraegor »

Newcastle wrote:You know I am really wondering now if last night was a protection and not a conversion?
irrelevant. Only LoD knows that answer. Thus we must presume worst case: Conversion.
Wonder Woman *may* Lasso one other Player she has not already Compelled. If that Player is the Target of the Villains that night, the attack will Fail. Neither Wonder Woman nor the Target will be notified.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

/shakes fist at Kraegor

Dang you how dare you accuse me like that, you, you scoundrel you.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Mr Bubbles »

Don't think they would pick him. Too obvious. Either that or hiding in plain sight. Not sure at the moment, but I'm sure there are more hiding and being totally non conspicuous.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

Chaosraven wrote:MARTIAN MANHUNTER CLARIFICATION:
**** in the event the Contact is a Villain, the Villain *WILL* die
In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Chaosraven: is Manhunter allowed to report into the thread during his nighttime dialogue?. For example, could he report in the thread that Bubba claims to be Batman as soon as Bubba tells him this?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Grundbegriff wrote:
triggercut wrote:We can lynch this badguy too, folks.
If Superman's extra life, which only the villagers can ever trigger, is so very bad for the village, shouldn't he be named Toxicman? In what sense does his power benefit the village, if not the sense I've outlined?
Superman's extra life allows him to freely play some incredibly suspicious plays and accusations worry-free; he can use that to his advantage to draw out bad guys joining a bandwagon and/or causing them to misstep.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:I'm in a regular Vampire game on another forum where the village may, if they like, vote "no lynch" once per game. The first two games I played, I was a bad guy, and we somehow got the village to vote "no lynch" both times. We badguys were delirious with joy because it ONLY helps the badguy team. It gives them a free scan, it gives them an extra kill, it totally levels the playing field a bit towards the Doomers.
So you're all bad with math in that other forum?

No, it doesn't give them a free scan; they're going to scan that night anyhow.
No, it doesn't give them an extra kill; they're going to attack that night anyhow.
No, it doesn't level the playing field.

All it does is trade a certain benefit for a probable bane. Instead of very likely helping the baddies by teamkilling, it guarantees that the lynch will do no harm to the village.

Nothing else changes, so where do all these "extra" turns and terraformings come from? The baddies are going to do those things anyhow.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Kraegor »

Grundbegriff wrote:
triggercut wrote:We can lynch this badguy too, folks.
If Superman's extra life, which only the villagers can ever trigger, is so very bad for the village, shouldn't he be named Toxicman? In what sense does his power benefit the village, if not the sense I've outlined?

That's what Trig/Newcastle do not see.

Trig mentions hailmary and forgets that the bad guys need every edge they can get. They need to trim down the number of misses.

Guess what? Not lynching superman, is a win for the bad guys. that's a half day swing in their favor.

The question is WHEN to lynch superman. You argue today. The other choice is roll the dice and wait till later.

Is is plausible to leave superman alive till end game? Yes. What it is, is a game of chicken. the bad guys win by killing superman before the lynch. Who flinches first? Thus their dilemma and ours.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Sean, Minister of KtSP »

Sorry, wandered away from the computer.

Yeah, now that the Remus business is out in the open, I see no reason to force the lynch.

 withdraw Remus West 
 
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:MARTIAN MANHUNTER CLARIFICATION:
**** in the event the Contact is a Villain, the Villain *WILL* die
In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.
Glad you came around... I know you're new to this and all :wink:
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:MARTIAN MANHUNTER CLARIFICATION:
**** in the event the Contact is a Villain, the Villain *WILL* die
In that case, Manhunter should definitely visit someone he thinks is a Doomster, and WW should definitely not protect him.

Chaosraven: is Manhunter allowed to report into the thread during his nighttime dialogue?. For example, could he report in the thread that Bubba claims to be Batman as soon as Bubba tells him this?
No, you really didn't...did you?

You're suggesting now that WW *not* protect MM, so he can contact someone he has a hunch might possibly be a Doomboy.

Of course, if MM is wrong, the surviving Doomboys report to one another "No contact here!" and then they kill MM and take out another goodguy as a bonus.

You want us to "No Lynch" today, and then follow this hare-brained strategy tonight? It'll be 12-3 on Tuesday morning.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

While Grundbegriff continues to suggest logically poor plays for the JLA, I'll tell you why you can deduce fairly easily his guilt:

Look at the votes.

Right now, there are 4 Grundbegriff votes. Three of those are from knowns. He's not accumulating other votes, though.

Huh.

If Grund was a goodguy, the Doomboys--at least 2 of them--would hop on the bandwagon here.

They aren't, of course.

Lynch Grundbegriff please.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

Trigg my boy, you need to relax....

You are all over grunds case... In that aggressive tone and everything.

Lets try rephrasing in a slightly easier tone:

"My Dearest Grund,

The MM only works if MM doesn't talk to the people he thinks are wolves... The second he does, he loses the ability to surprise. Now yes, he can run around asking people questions like if they are good or evil. but Evil guys will go: "Just Aquaman here". And so will some good guys. MM then announces so and so is aquaman, and they get to kill him and that other person, since he goes before the kill. Or even worse if he announced he met Bats and they kill him or bats and both die. This is very very poor strategy, something you are not known for. Did someone slip some acid in your kool aid or are you villain roots starting to show?"

I could make a living doing that :)
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

I dunno if its a solid play to vote for him. I think the wolves know jumping on a bandwagon isnt in thier best interest when so many people are doing such a great job of making themselves targets. What if the one unknown is already a wolf? How many more you think would hop on the pile before its obvious. Also, I agree with him and Kraegor, its not a bad play, at all, for us to vote for supes. It's just a much better play if someone hadn't outted him... You know who I am talking about... Yes you...

I reserve the right to remove my vote at any time, like if Grund makes a little more sense than he has recently. it's almost like he's coming loose at the seams and that doesn't sound very grund like. Might be a bit over tired from the trip, might just have screwed up and is trying to save his own arse. Could also be he is the joker and is trying to get bamfed.....

 withdraw Steisser 
 

 Grundbegriff 
 
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Mr Bubbles »

That turn did puzzle me. Grund just jumped high with that reversal.  Grundbegriff 
 
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

Just curious - why is grund so eager to lynch superman, when just yesterday he was driving the bandwagon hard on me to see me lynched? Why was he not propounding to lynch superman yesterday?


Why does it seem that at every step during today, Grund has been seemingly calling for the outing of various specials
1. Noting in his early analysis that several people had claimed AQ - what good is it to draw attention to it? See em flinch maybe?
2. Telling WW to shut up about Superman; again see if someone flinches?
2B - accusing Austin of being #53, then also of being superman?
3. Asking a Wonder Twin to confirm a statement I said....which i clearly stated was not a hint - but still he asked it.
3b. Then following up after Triggercut demanded to know if i was a special - gearing up for the shot - Grund also pipped in about it.
4. The whole debate about Superman, that enticed Sean to come out and bringing himself and remus from the shadows


I dont think lynchign Remus to prove he is superman is indeed teh right choice. Yes, we might lsot that stall, but it also forces them to play defense. They now have 3 people they have to pick from to kill. And one of us is dying tonight Remus or Trigg, no doubt bout it. And tonight Lex will have a little scan of the unknowns to see who is WW.

I can see the benefit of lynching superman, and using that as a stall IF we were in a section of a stall...if we had absolutely no idea about anything, if we had no suspicions. But i have suspicions

Whats the point of lynching Remus if we already know the result? Whats the point of it? Everyone, if agreed will vote for him, because we know. It provides no data whatsoever. Zip, zero, zilch, nada.

But, if we go forth and lynch an unknown, now we start getting some bit of feedback coming in. We see where tendencies lie, we see suspicions, we see where people's hunches are. We need data, we dont need superflous data

Lynching Superman while we are unaware we are lynching him - great idea

Lynching superman while we know the result - provides zero useful data or information.

my vote is staying on

 GRUND 
 


He has his tells, and they are flaring up.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

That puts our vote count on him at 6 right?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:One more time: forsaking a lynch for the village is always a bad play.

ALWAYS.

There's no math to it--this is a logic problem:
:roll: I'm biting my tongue here.
The only way the Justice League can win the game is to lynch bad guys. If we give up a lynch, we give up a chance to do so.

Period.
Right, but the question is how the odds of success in the spent chance affect the population and overall odds. The tandem question is how the odds of success with Superman's power affect the population and overall odds.
My only concern is the player in my dugout who thinks we have a better chance of winning the ballgame by skipping a time at bat.
In exchange for a run added to the other team's score?! When the guy who's up has a terrible batting average?
That's the mark of someone who doesn't want your team to win.
Your reflections are the mark of someone among whose many great strengths logic and math do not rank highly.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Semaj wrote:Trigg my boy, you need to relax....

You are all over grunds case... In that aggressive tone and everything.

Lets try rephrasing in a slightly easier tone:

"My Dearest Grund,

The MM only works if MM doesn't talk to the people he thinks are wolves... The second he does, he loses the ability to surprise. Now yes, he can run around asking people questions like if they are good or evil. but Evil guys will go: "Just Aquaman here". And so will some good guys. MM then announces so and so is aquaman, and they get to kill him and that other person, since he goes before the kill. Or even worse if he announced he met Bats and they kill him or bats and both die. This is very very poor strategy, something you are not known for. Did someone slip some acid in your kool aid or are you villain roots starting to show?"

I could make a living doing that :)
Oh, I'm relaxed. Just enjoying a little bit of payback after he outed me as Judas when my play went awry in the Divine Relics game. It's all in fun.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut »

Grund, even a guy like Ozzie Smith never hitting homeruns can occasionally have a "Go Crazy Folks, Go Crazy" moment, so you give him the bat and tell him to take some good swings.
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
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Grundbegriff
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:Three of four votes on Grundbegriff are cast by knowns.
How does it feel to be a violin?

I thought you liked to play for victory, as you protested earlier before pelting yourself with dunce caps. Now I'm thinking you just like to play for style.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle »

Me thinks that Grund is da Joker and we are in for a nasty surprise.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj »

triggercut wrote: Oh, I'm relaxed. Just enjoying a little bit of payback after he outed me as Judas when my play went awry in the Divine Relics game. It's all in fun.
You totally put that on yourself that game :)
Some claim to be things they aren't.
Some claim things they don't deserve.
Some claim to know more than they ever will.
I don't claim anything, because no one would believe the truth anyways.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

Semaj wrote:Grund: Your miss strategy has one minor minor flaw....

The Evil guys have a scan... As such they can search for Bat's and WW freely when we use supes miss.
They're going to do that tonight no matter what we do. Whom we lynch doesn't affect the quantity or quality of their scans.
This is what point they are trying to hammer home. Its saves a miss, but gives them more time to look for the people they fear most.
Scenario 01:
Day: JL death
Night: JL death, Evil Scan, Good Scan

Scenario 02:
Day: No JL death
Night: JL death, Evil Scan, Good Scan

Explain to me how Scenario 02 counts as an "extra" scan, or gives Evil "more time" to scan.

The scenarios are identical with respect to time and opportunity, with the single, isolated exception that we trade Likely Helping The Badguys By Teamkilling for a pass.
Yes yes I know WW is also scanning, but a feww scan for them is probably better than a free scan
Where are they getting a free scan? They're going to scan tonight no matter what. Nothing we do can affect that, unless Green Lantern gets lucky.
for us since they pool they scan has 2 or 3 less in it.
That's already the case, since apparently MM decided to out Superman.
Supes miss is phenominal when we dont know we are using it.
All it does is save us from a possible teamkill. That's true no matter when we use it. The surprise factor is just window dressing.

Right now, the odds of a teamkill are at their highest, and Superman (now outed) will be hard and costly to keep alive.
But now that he's outted, trying to save it isnt a bad ploy. Killing him is by far and away their best move, but they dont know what WW is going to do. Do they shoot blindly at people, do they go for him and hope she isnt protecting? They have a _lot_ of work on their hands.
They're tangled, but we're hampered as long as Superman is an albatross.
The question is, how can you not have figured this into all your arguing...
See above. They don't get an extra anything; they're going to scan no matter what. Meanwhile, we have two options: (a) a likely teamkill that actually does benefit the baddies, or (b) a pass that benefits only the JL.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:While Grundbegriff continues to suggest logically poor plays for the JLA, I'll tell you why you can deduce fairly easily his guilt:

Look at the votes.

Right now, there are 4 Grundbegriff votes. Three of those are from knowns. He's not accumulating other votes, though.

Huh.

If Grund was a goodguy, the Doomboys--at least 2 of them--would hop on the bandwagon here.

They aren't, of course.

Lynch Grundbegriff please.
You're going to look very, very foolish for the second time in this game. But maybe your skin is thickened from the experience of frequent loss in Werewolf?
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

Mr Bubbles wrote:That turn did puzzle me. Grund just jumped high with that reversal.  Grundbegriff 
 
Do you think I'd make it easy if I were evil? Didn't you see the Controlled KAOS game?

Please don't tell me you're evil, Bubbles. It'd be so disappointing to see you and Lassr showing up all the veterans who can't manage to read me.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff »

triggercut wrote:Grund, even a guy like Ozzie Smith never hitting homeruns can occasionally have a "Go Crazy Folks, Go Crazy" moment, so you give him the bat and tell him to take some good swings.
Fair enough. Then I want you to step back, take a good look at things, and select someone not on your team as the object of our shared, righteous wrath. For I assure you, I'm not a member of the Legion of Doom. And since I'm also not Batman, you'll certainly learn this if you kill me.
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