Poker Strategy Discussion

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The Meal
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Post by The Meal »

The Preacher wrote:As a newbie, I see that he holds the A. What is the second card?
I'm guessing :Ad:-Qo

Oh, the images used for the cards don't show up for me — I think work blocks any and everything related to gambling, including images. To use the onbOOard smilies, it's : Ad : (but no spaces between the colon and the card designation.

Of course :Ad: is a bad example, as many people have ad blocker software that kills any images with the text "ad" in them...

~Neal
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Post by Semaj »

I never worry about how other people play poker in terms of what they write in a book.

I have two goals in a money tournament: To not play stupidly, as in not go on tilt and go all in with 27... And to try to always go all in with the best hand in a situation where if he calls he's not calling with the nuts, he's calling from behind and hoping to catch something.
I guess my third to to not call a huge bid thats puts me all in on a draw...

I play under the assumption the odds of you catch the cards you need are pretty slim, as such unless you are pot commited or it's worth it to see the extra card, just fold.

You'll eventually have your chance to make back any lost money and unless you have a low stack and need to play risky, playing risky is as bad as it is good. Last tournament I was in was a bachelor party where no one was drinking heavily until after the poker game (A lot of money was on the line). I caught some decent cards, built up a nice early lead and after making two people at our table rebuy I went into the other room and watched the hockey game for 10 to 15 mins. I probably could have tripled my stack but I figured I'd let guys who had already thrown in 20-30 bucks a chance to actually play a few hands without me leaning on them.

When I got back I broke people who went all in on tilt with not very good hands where i had them dominated and they didn't catch what they needed to win. Then after there was near no one left at our table we waited for the other groups to finish so we could call go a final table. On the final table I won a few hands early kept my chip stack good and hung in too long on one hand hoping for a my inside straight draw to hit... I got a bluff or two across so they couldn't figure out if I was really catching good cards or not. Then when we were down to 4 people I got pocket tens and raised big before the flop with only the chip leader calling, the flop cam with 3 semi low cards and no real chance of a flush so I went all in. The guy looked at me and I knew I had him beat. He finally decided to call with A10. As such he has a ... I think 4% chance to win at that point. Sure enough the turn was an Ace and I realized I was pretty much hosed Short of one of the remaining ten coming up on the river.

I'd blame it on horrible luck, but you play the best you can and you'll usually win the hands you should and usually lose the hands you shouldn't. Sometimes someone gets lucky and you deal with it and move on. To me there is no real strategy when you play poker. You play your table and more importantly the opponents at it. If they all play loose you play tight. If they all play tight you play a little looser. If someone always plays percentages, you make sure you have his thinking down so you know what cards he probably has. if you play a game of constant raising, people will figure you out and start catching you. You have to switch up your play style from time to time.

A book is great for helping you determine the basic, the odds of certain hands over other hands, the percentages to actually draw what you need and when you should and should not play specific hands. But the actual playing of the poker, thats all on you and your ability to read a table and play accordingly.
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Post by SpaceLord »

The Meal wrote:
The Preacher wrote:As a newbie, I see that he holds the A. What is the second card?
I'm guessing :Ad:-Qo

Oh, the images used for the cards don't show up for me — I think work blocks any and everything related to gambling, including images. To use the onbOOard smilies, it's : Ad : (but no spaces between the colon and the card designation.

Of course :Ad: is a bad example, as many people have ad blocker software that kills any images with the text "ad" in them...

~Neal
In the actual hand, he held Ad-10d. I shoved because I was pot commited by that point, and I thought he had the 10.

Awesome.

How often do you flop a King-high flush, and by the turn, have 1 card draw to both a Royal and a straight flush, and are drawing dead from the flop on. :shock: :cry:
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Post by yossar »

SpaceLord wrote:How often do you flop a King-high flush, and by the turn, have 1 card draw to both a Royal and a straight flush, and are drawing dead from the flop on. :shock: :cry:
You never had a shot at a Royal after the flop. Not sure I would have played the hand very different. I never would have thought he had the ace high flush after the flop but might have gotten a little nervous after the turn.
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Post by The Meal »

You know what MHS thinks about the flopped flush...

~Neal
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Post by Peacedog »

The Meal wrote:You know what MHS thinks about the flopped flush...

~Neal
No.

I thought there was a good joke here concerning the nuts, but there really isn't.
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Post by The Meal »

She *never* believes the flopped flush. Never-ever (on the flop, at least).

Not a bad assumption. [bad assumption]Consider things from the flopped-flush-holder.

They had a (52/52) * (12/51) = 23.52% chance of holding suited cards.

They had a (11/50) * (10/49) * (9/48) = 0.84% chance of flopping the flush.

You can catch 99 bluffed flopped flushes out of 100 and still end up monetarily ahead.[/bad assumption]

[edit: good assumption]Consider things from MHS's perspective. She sees a flop of 3 suited cards, and looks down in her hand and sees
  • none of that suit. The odds that her opponent holds exactly two of that suit are
    (9/47) * (8/46) = 3.33%
  • one of that suit. The odds that her opponent holds exatly two of that suit are
    (8/47) * (7/46) = 2.59%
In either case, she can catch a lot of bluffs without giving up equity (if we don't consider the opponent's actual holdings to be better than MHS's, redraws, etc.).

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Post by SpaceLord »

yossar wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:How often do you flop a King-high flush, and by the turn, have 1 card draw to both a Royal and a straight flush, and are drawing dead from the flop on. :shock: :cry:
You never had a shot at a Royal after the flop. Not sure I would have played the hand very different. I never would have thought he had the ace high flush after the flop but might have gotten a little nervous after the turn.
That much is obvious, now. But the exact two cards that made my king-high flush dead were in my opponent's hand. Just bad luck, and it cost me the tourney.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

Thread Resurrection!

So, I've been playing a LOT of poker lately. Almost every day online, and 2 times a week or so live.

An interesting hand came up recently in a tournament:
Live tourament, 180$ buyin.

Me: 16k chips.
Middle position: 13k chips.

Blinds: 200/400

I am dealt :Ah: :Ad:
MP(seems fairly tight): Raises to 1000
Folded to me on the Button: I raise to 3500
MP calls

Pot: 7600

Flop:
:Td: :Kc: :Ks:

MP quietly checks
I bet 5k.
MP thinks, then shoves

Question 1: Can you fold?
Question 2: Why? :
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

I don't think you can. There are only 8 AK's left in the deck, QJ doesn't make the call preflop (if he's tight, neither does TT). It's a 4.5k call to win 22k. You'd need the queen mother of all tells to fold at that point. He had some random KT?
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

The Meal wrote:I don't think you can. There are only 8 AK's left in the deck, QJ doesn't make the call preflop (if he's tight, neither does TT). It's a 4.5k call to win 22k. You'd need the queen mother of all tells to fold at that point. He had some random KT?
Guess they weren't as stingy with her chips as I had thought - she had :Tc: :Th:

I did the equity calculations:

Her estimated holdings:
AxKx = 15%
QQ,JJ = 25%
1010 = 25%
KxBroadwayX = 20%
Bluff(I win): 15%
Other Pair: 5%

My win % vs. each:
AK = 5%
QQ/JJ = 89%
1010 = 16%
KxBroadwayX = 9%
Bluff=100%
Other pair: 91%

Pot: 22100
My cost to call: 7500
Total Pot: 29600
Odds: ~ 3:1

EV(AK) : 0.05 (29600) - 0.95(7500) = 14800 - = 14800 - 7125 = -7675
EV(QQ/JJ) : 0.89(29600) - 0.11(7500) = 26344 - 825 = 25519
EV(1010)=0.14(29600) - 0.86(7500) = 4144 - 6450 = - 2306
EV(KxBroadwayX) : 0.09(29600) - 0.91(7500) = 2644 - 6825 = -4181
EV(Bluff) : 29600
EV(Pair) : 0.91(29600) - 0.09(7500) = 26936 - 675 = 26231
Applying the percentages:

EV(AK) : 0.15(-7675) = -1151
EV(QQ/JJ) : 0.25(25519) = 6380
EV(1010) : 0.25(2306) = -576.5
EV(KxBroadwayX) : 0.20(-4181) = -836
EV(Bluff) = 0.15(29600) = 4400
EV(Any pair) 0.05(26231) = 1312

- 2654, 10780

Total EV: 8126

I didn't catch any of my 4 outs: any ace, any king, and was crippled.
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The Meal
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

SpaceLord wrote:
The Meal wrote:I don't think you can. There are only 8 AK's left in the deck, QJ doesn't make the call preflop (if he's tight, neither does TT). It's a 4.5k call to win 22k. You'd need the queen mother of all tells to fold at that point. He had some random KT?
Guess they weren't as stingy with her chips as I had thought - she had :Tc: :Th:
That's annoying.
I did the equity calculations:

Her estimated holdings:
AxKx = 15%
QQ,JJ = 25%
1010 = 25%
KxBroadwayX = 20%
Bluff(I win): 15%
Other Pair: 5%
An interesting range of possibilities. :)

AK = 8 hands
QQ + JJ = 12 hands
TT = 3 hands
K-Broadway = 26 hands
Other pairs = (6 * number of pairs) hands
Bluff = your favorite percentage

Based on the preflop action, I'll arbitrarily quarter the K-broadway hands (and say there are 7 hands). I'll set the number of "other pairs" down to 9's (so 6 total hands). You like 15% for bluffs, so I'll grant that number.

Total hands = 42
AK = 19%
QQ + JJ = 29%
TT = 7%
K-Broad = 17%
9's = 14%
Bluff = 14% (I gave 6 hands in this range)
My win % vs. each:
AK = 5%
QQ/JJ = 89%
1010 = 16%
KxBroadwayX = 9%
Bluff=100%
Other pair: 91%
These I'll trust. :)
Pot: 22100
My cost to call: 7500
Total Pot: 29600
Odds: ~ 3:1
Nyet. Pot: 22.1k Your cost to call: 4500. Total Pot = 29.6k The equity calculation is going to turn out even *more* in your favor.
Total EV: 8126
Plus some more.

Rough situation. Keep calling in the future!
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

The Meal wrote:[
Rough situation. Keep calling in the future!
Definitely. Here's what I went through at the table:

AK: It's not too tight, since I only 3.5 bet her. I am totally screwed if she has that, but it's really, really unlikely.
Kx: Not too likely, since there are only 2 left.
A10: sorta likely, but I doubt she shoves, knowing that I have her covered.
1010: Since a flopped set is so rare, I had to roll the dice and ignore that one.

The check could mean several things: most likely, she has nothing. Or, she flopped a monster and is trapping.

Ah well, I feel better after thinking it over more after the fact.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

SpaceLord wrote:The check could mean several things: most likely, she has nothing. Or, she flopped a monster and is trapping.
Yep, it's one of those boards. Pretty amazing that you actually were up against a hand that you had outs over, actually.

So are you feeling better? Coming to play with us this weekend? We missed you last weekend!
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Re:

Post by theohall »

The Meal wrote:She *never* believes the flopped flush. Never-ever (on the flop, at least).

Not a bad assumption. [bad assumption]Consider things from the flopped-flush-holder.

They had a (52/52) * (12/51) = 23.52% chance of holding suited cards.

They had a (11/50) * (10/49) * (9/48) = 0.84% chance of flopping the flush.

You can catch 99 bluffed flopped flushes out of 100 and still end up monetarily ahead.[/bad assumption]

[edit: good assumption]Consider things from MHS's perspective. She sees a flop of 3 suited cards, and looks down in her hand and sees
  • none of that suit. The odds that her opponent holds exactly two of that suit are
    (9/47) * (8/46) = 3.33%
  • one of that suit. The odds that her opponent holds exatly two of that suit are
    (8/47) * (7/46) = 2.59%
In either case, she can catch a lot of bluffs without giving up equity (if we don't consider the opponent's actual holdings to be better than MHS's, redraws, etc.).

~Neal
Don't know the odds, but this happened to me last night. (in one of the free games, no real money involved, all internet-based).


90 player tournament, 1500 chip start, 8 players left at my table, blinds at 15/30 still 3rd hand (folded the first two), one player was out after going all-in on crap on the first hand.

(Don't know the right word, but I'm 3rd after the BB)
My hand: Qc 6c
Flop: Kc 10c 3c

Holy crap! a flop flush?? Great. And the K is already out there as well? So odds are no one is going to have Ac and some other club, right?

I raise 3xBB, get 2 calls and the button goes All-In. I'm thinking, they gotta be playing K or 10 or some combo in some way. And this is the person that went All-In on alot less and won the first hand. So - Call (which is All-In as well). The other folks fold.

He had Ac 2c. Odds on that gotta be way low, so I don't feel bad about losing, just wish it hadn't been on the 3rd hand of the tournament.

The rest of the evening went better. 976 player tournament, finished 40th, - and yes, Snyder's system does work well to place in the top 10% of a tournament even on the free game things once you get past the idiots in the first 10-20 hands. Style has to change later though when other players at the table are playing the same way. Finished 3rd in a 36 player tournament after that.

Can't afford to gamble with real money yet, so if I can manage to establish a bankroll by improving through free play - game on!

Good advice and good reading here. Keep up the suggestions and advice.
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Re: Re:

Post by The Meal »

theohall wrote:Don't know the odds, but this happened to me last night. (in one of the free games, no real money involved, all internet-based).
In points-only games, it's more likely to happen. When there isn't a downside to losing hands, folks tend to play more hands just because they are made up of suited cards.
90 player tournament, 1500 chip start, 8 players left at my table, blinds at 15/30 still 3rd hand (folded the first two), one player was out after going all-in on crap on the first hand.

(Don't know the right word, but I'm 3rd after the BB)
Everyone's got their own way of phrasing seats at the table, but for consistency's sake I use the following:
The dealer is "on the button."
The person before the dealer is always the "cutoff" (CU).
The person before the cutoff is always the "hijack" (HJ).
The person before the hijack is always late middle position (LMP).
The person before LMP is always middle position (MP).
The person before MP is always early middle position (EMP).
Anyone before these seats is considered to be in early position (EP).

Relative positions are the two blinds (SB one after the dealer, BB two after the dealer), and under the gun (UTG) being the first person to act. At a full table of 8, 9, 10+, the two blinds and UTG are also in EP (but I'll rarely refer to them that way). Generally there isn't a whole lot of different strategic adjustment for folks who are 6+ positions ahead of the button (doesn't matter if you're 8 before the dealer or 6 seats before), so "EP" is good enough in those situations. *BUT* if you're 8 ahead of the dealer *and* already in for some of the blind money, well then *that* makes a difference strategically (so I'll refer to those seats by their relative positioning: SB or BB).

Other folks won't make the distinction between the middle positions, or jimmy about the dividing line between middle and late positions (a term I don't use), so you can't fall in love with any specific term for any specific seat. When I read other people's poker stories or strategy advice, I always have to mentally convert it into my own scheme, above. *Then* I can follow along with the action. :)

So, at a table of eight, it goes: BUTTON SB BB person person YOU person person. That means you're in LMP (in my world, at least).
My hand: Qc 6c
And in a money game, fourth hand in a tournament with folks I don't have a good bead on their play, Q6s is a fold for me. An easy one!
Flop: Kc 10c 3c

Holy crap! a flop flush?? Great. And the K is already out there as well? So odds are no one is going to have Ac and some other club, right?
Indeed! That's definitely an above-average flop for you. You've got the second nuts (and could catch perfect to make the absolute nuts, if the Jc and Ac or Jc and 9c are the next two cards!). Chances are very slim that you're behind. Knowing how the preflop betting went (who called, raised, and from what position) can help you figure out if/who may have an ace, including the possibility of the :Ac: .
I raise 3xBB, get 2 calls and the button goes All-In. I'm thinking, they gotta be playing K or 10 or some combo in some way. And this is the person that went All-In on alot less and won the first hand. So - Call (which is All-In as well). The other folks fold.

He had Ac 2c. Odds on that gotta be way low, so I don't feel bad about losing, just wish it hadn't been on the 3rd hand of the tournament.
Indeed. I think if you make this call 100 times (were the exact situation to come up again), you'd end up significantly ahead in the deal, you happened to get unlucky. How unlucky, you may ask?

Well, on the flop, you've seen 5 cards out of 52. 47 cards are out there that you don't know, and your opponent holds two of them. One of those two *has* to be the :Ac: for you to have problems, and (if he's got two random cards), the chance of that is 1 out of 47 (just over 2%). The chance of his *other* card also being a club is 7/46 (there are seven clubs left in the deck unspoken for, :2c: :4c: :5c: :7c: :8c: :9c: :Jc: , and 46 cards remain unknown). So the chance of both of these independent outcomes being true is (1/47) * (7/46) = 7/2162 = 0.32%

That's pretty slim.
The rest of the evening went better. 976 player tournament, finished 40th, - and yes, Snyder's system does work well to place in the top 10% of a tournament even on the free game things once you get past the idiots in the first 10-20 hands.
Playing in free-money games (after the idiots are gone) has to be a fun way to play that style. Though in free-money games, folks are going to be more inclined to call you and a big part of his style is preying on players who are hesitant to put all their chips on the line. So when you go on to say:
Style has to change later though when other players at the table are playing the same way.
That makes a lot of sense. Snyder's TPF method should be even more effective when there's consequences for folks going broke (such as their being money on the line).
Can't afford to gamble with real money yet, so if I can manage to establish a bankroll by improving through free play - game on!
Awesome! I managed to get kick started on Poker Stars in just this manner (though I've since squandered that startup money, and am now playing profitably with my money on Full Tilt — leaving me with little incentive to try to re-establish a presence on P*)
Good advice and good reading here. Keep up the suggestions and advice.
I love talking about this stuff online (not so much orally), so I'd also encourage the discussion!
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

Good post, The Meal.

This client's network blocks gambling links, but Snyder's 2nd book: PTF2 has been released on Cardoza's website, and should be available on Amazon in a couple weeks. Just from the table of contents, Snyder's probably gonna really shake things up. When I get back home, my copy should be waiting for me. :horse:

Also, I picked up Negreanu's huge new book. His section takes up 300+ pages, and is really meaty. The rest: not so much. I flew through the Ng/Brunson/Lindgren/Brunson chapters in a couple hours, and am still digesting Kid Poker's stuff.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by theohall »

Thanks for the nomenclature for seating, Neal. That helps alot. I forgot to say everyone checked/called prior to the flop on that flop flush hand. Had anyone actually bet anything, I'd probably have folded. .32% is really low :D

Anyway, played some other free stuff last night with the Buzztime poker at a bar. Everyone starts with 4000 or 2000, depending if you gave them an email address or not, but even if you go bust, you just sit out one hand and start over with the 4000 or 2000.

So the point - the first 2 hours (game are broken into 2 or 3 hour segments and the blinds never go up - it's always 50/100 NL), wound up finishing with 30,000 (1st place) which is actually difficult at this bar. Snyder's system does not work at all, because the folks playing don't care if they go bust. So, it forces one to play their cards, vice playing a system. IMO, this is good training for the H2H stuff and the end portions of the tournaments. Granted, occasionally some goober jumps in and plays like an idiot, so when that happens, the "regulars" usually just fold until the goober gets the point.

The 3 hour segment I finished with 50,000 (2nd place) only because the guy that won caught me on the last hand. I had Jh9h. Everyone checked. Flop is JcJs10h. Okay. I'm on the button and everyone checks, so I go 3*BB to see who stays. All but one guy (SB) folds. He raises 3*BB. Okay. So he probably has the other J. Call. Turn is 4h. So now I'm looking at possible flush while I've already got 3-of-a-kind. Go with half the pot. SB calls. River is no help being a 2c. So now my only concern is what is SBs kicker. I was up on him by 20000+ chips, so raised pot (~10000). He called. And what shows up as his kicker. Jd 4c is his hand giving him the J4 fullhouse. Then the round ended giving him the "win" for that 3 hour round. I was surprised he didn't go higher on the turn, but talking to him after, he was just trying to get ahead of me and needed the extra cash he figured I'd bet to win the round. :) Hed he raised me on the turn, I'd probably have folded and he knew it.

FYI - the bar game is only really a side thing going on while watching baseball :) So getting into details is difficult. But that one hand from last night stood out.
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Post by The Meal »

SpaceLord wrote:This client's network blocks gambling links, but Snyder's 2nd book: PTF2 has been released on Cardoza's website, and should be available on Amazon in a couple weeks. Just from the table of contents, Snyder's probably gonna really shake things up. When I get back home, my copy should be waiting for me. :horse:
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Also, I picked up Negreanu's huge new book. His section takes up 300+ pages, and is really meaty. The rest: not so much. I flew through the Ng/Brunson/Lindgren/Brunson chapters in a couple hours, and am still digesting Kid Poker's stuff.
How much are you liking the Negreanu section? MHS purchased his first (very light) book, and I doubt I'd ever reread it. Based on that, I wasn't expecting much out of his "tome."
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Re: Is this where I congratulate Scotty Nguyen, baby?

Post by SpaceLord »

The Meal wrote:
Also, I picked up Negreanu's huge new book. His section takes up 300+ pages, and is really meaty. The rest: not so much. I flew through the Ng/Brunson/Lindgren/Brunson chapters in a couple hours, and am still digesting Kid Poker's stuff.
How much are you liking the Negreanu section? MHS purchased his first (very light) book, and I doubt I'd ever reread it. Based on that, I wasn't expecting much out of his "tome."
Great section, he explains the Small Ball concept better than any other treatment I've seen.

I have now read Snyder's PTF2 4 times. :shock: Yeah, I read insanely fast.

While I really like the book, there's not too much specific advice on hands. He stresses FEAR and utility. And he means utility in the economics sense: the ability to use your stack in the most advantageous way possible. He says full utility isn't possible with less than 100BBs. That is a HUGE stack even marginally deep in a tournament. I vastly prefer the way he thinks to Sklansky, Mallmuth, etc.

I played at the Commerce Casino when I was in LA last week. They aint kiddin' when they say it's the largest poker room in the world. :shock:

The tourney I played started at 3k, and blinds went up every 20 minutes, so it was definitely a fast tournament. I cashed in 4th place for 1100, was great. I had one big suckout, where I rivered a flush with QQ vs. KK. I am beginning to really despise the short stack tournies, there's just not much postflop play. I played for 4 hours in this tourney, and there was not a single hand I was involved in where someone wasn't all-in before the turn. :x
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

I'm about 1/4th the way through TPF2. Definitely a good read (if not very applicable for the tournaments I enter). I've raised the Negreanu tome up on my list of wants based on your feedback (along with Lessenger's bluff book, based on Snyder's comments).

Congrats on the high finish at the Commerce. You've got to be on the verge of a blue ribbon performance!

I must be sick of my current job. I finally sat down and calculated how much I'd have to reliably earn each day so that I could quit working for a living. Unfortunately that number is $150 or better. Fortunately, that's the amount I won (over the course of about eight tournaments) yesterday in my online skulking about. One daydreams about taking a week off of work and just grinding it out online for 8 hours a day to see what's possible. But even in that daydream, spending that much time in front of the computer playing poker seems like a really tedious way to spend one's time. I suppose I'll keep trying to work the angle that involves the ten years I spent in college...
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by Semaj »

The Meal wrote:I'm about 1/4th the way through TPF2. Definitely a good read (if not very applicable for the tournaments I enter). I've raised the Negreanu tome up on my list of wants based on your feedback (along with Lessenger's bluff book, based on Snyder's comments).

Congrats on the high finish at the Commerce. You've got to be on the verge of a blue ribbon performance!

I must be sick of my current job. I finally sat down and calculated how much I'd have to reliably earn each day so that I could quit working for a living. Unfortunately that number is $150 or better. Fortunately, that's the amount I won (over the course of about eight tournaments) yesterday in my online skulking about. One daydreams about taking a week off of work and just grinding it out online for 8 hours a day to see what's possible. But even in that daydream, spending that much time in front of the computer playing poker seems like a really tedious way to spend one's time. I suppose I'll keep trying to work the angle that involves the ten years I spent in college...
The key behind that philosophy is :

1) Either multiple computer or multiple screens so your seeing 4-8 tables at the same time, me I can sometimes run 4, but if real money is on the line, I'd probably drop to 2-3 and pay more attention to betting trends.
2) hitting every freeroll or money making tournament you can find.

I'd say you need to hit a lot of tournaments, but it seems like you do. If you are consistantly making money, there is nothing saying you cant hit a buncha live events on weekends or scheduling a trip to hit vegas and see how you do.

Me, I only play in batchelor parties, because they make me.
So I'll tell you one of my better stories at one of those tournaments. It's a 20 person tournament with very quickly rising blinds. No limit, very much like on tv, with no camera to make us all feel smarter.

I haven't caught anything most of the early going, but since I was playing tight it just meant a few of the loose piles were growing exponentially as those who just didnt want to play gave thier money away. Essentially I folded my way into the top 5 at our table and met the top 5 of the other table. Well I finally start with a decent pair, and limp in. I know its a bad move, but the table is playing so loose I expected 2 or 3 people to raise after me and chase out most of the weak hands. Someone goes all in right after me and everyone else folds. I have him covered, but by about a buck, which happened to be big blind. So I call. Bastard caught a flush on the river. This occured about 2 or 3 years ago, so the exact cards are not very fresh in my mind.

Suddenly I am at chip and a chair status, but since I was a few hands away from blinds, I could afford to be a bit picky. The very next hand my friend goes all in, and while people at the tale are talking I give him a knowing look and go: 9's eh? He swallows his gum and i know I had him pegged. Made me chuckle. He wanted to know how I knew afterwards and I told him the way he went all in showed he had a good hand, but not a great hand so I expect a midranged pair. I figured 9 or 10's, but guessed 9's and got lucky. But it helped give me the confidence I needed to keep playing, knowing I could play the game, just needed to get a winning hand. Luckily for me, 2 hands later I caught kings. All in, 5 people call, King on the river, I suddenly have roughly 6 or 7 bucks.

I slowly work my way back, playing tight but getting the cards I had been missing earlier. I'm stealing pots because people are starting to tighten up. Eventually I break my friend from earlier and I suddenly have the chip lead. We are down to 3 people and it's me, the new guy who's name eludes me and my other friend bob who plays a lot of poker, but you can usually tell his cards. He's been getting better about mixing it up, but still wasnt my big worry.

I get :Ah: :9h: and am feeling pretty good. Flop comes :Ac: :9s: :Qd:, Bob bets, I raise, he calls. We are about 5x BB atm. I got 2 pair and want to let him lead into me. :7s: comes on the turn and Bob checks and I bet 5x the BB, trying to scare him off. Usually when he checks he doesn't got squat. He goes all in... So I have to do my "analysis" since clearly I refuse to calculate odds like you lads do. Bob might have 2 pair. I assume he has to have queens or better, maybe he caught 2 pair and it's my lucky day. He probably doesn't have aces or he'd have played more aggressively. He might have 3 queens, but He probably wouldn't have just called my raise. So I like my odds and I call.

Cards are flipped: he has :Qs: :Ks:
So he has a few outs and I'm a smidge worried. Sure enough he gets a spade on the river and doubles up through me putting me under the new guy fro chip lead but still above bob.

2 hands later. I get three of a kind off the flop. I bet 5X, both call. The turn comes up another of one of the suits, meaning if they have 2 of that suit, it could be trouble, so I put almost all my chips in. The chip leader calls. Last card comes and it's another of that suit and he goes all in... He had caught the flush on the river, with nothing in his hand.

I never recovered from that, obviously. ended up coming in third. But afterwards I had asked him if there was any amount of money I could have bet to scare him off and he went: "Nope."

So, I went from chip in a chair to big stack before being broken by runner-runners. It was pretty much one of the better tournaments for me in terms of how I played, including a few I won.

I miss taking suckers money though :)
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

Semaj wrote:The key behind that philosophy [playing online poker as one's primary means of earning money] is :

1) Either multiple computer or multiple screens so your seeing 4-8 tables at the same time, me I can sometimes run 4, but if real money is on the line, I'd probably drop to 2-3 and pay more attention to betting trends.
2) hitting every freeroll or money making tournament you can find.
The philosophy of "playing" poker as a primary means of earning money is either A) to spend time in a manner more pleasing than actually working for a living, or B) to gain a more lucrative wage. Playing in the style of #1 violates A for me (the pleasing nature of the game, for me, is in the outhinking of opponents, not multi-tabling via a superior algorithm) and based on my advancing years, likely violates B as well. And there's no possible way that #2 comes close to achieving cost-pairity with my current wage earnings.
I'd say you need to hit a lot of tournaments, but it seems like you do. If you are consistantly making money, there is nothing saying you cant hit a buncha live events on weekends or scheduling a trip to hit vegas and see how you do.
*I* play low-stakes sit-and-goes primarily (between 0 and 10 on any given day, probably averaging 25 a week). SpaceLord plays larger buy-in live events (on the order of 10 a month, I believe, but maybe larger if he only tells me stories about winning exploits). Were I to serious plot a course that involved trying to change the nature of my earnings, I'd not base it on taking a shot in games significantly different than my current roster, but instead would only add volume to the equation. If I were single and without a dependent, then maybe I'd be more open to other alternatives.
The very next hand my friend goes all in, and while people at the tale are talking I give him a knowing look and go: 9's eh? He swallows his gum and i know I had him pegged. Made me chuckle. He wanted to know how I knew afterwards and I told him the way he went all in showed he had a good hand, but not a great hand so I expect a midranged pair. I figured 9 or 10's, but guessed 9's and got lucky.
That's somewhat impressive, but as your analysis indicates, that's pretty much the sort of hand that a player with experience is going to initially guess in this case:
The Meal, on a different [url=http://www.popehat.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16804#p16804]forum[/url], wrote:There are a couple of regimes which folks select from when making preflop bet sizes, which I like to think of as "Ferguson" "Harrington" "Standard" "Random" and "Weak."
Weak is someone who limps a lot
Standard is someone who generally raises to 3xBB (sometimes taking into account the number of limpers ahead and sometimes not)
Random is someone who you just can't figure out how they decide to make their preflop bet sizes (I try to fall into this camp, though I have elements of Harrington and Ferguson in my selection process)
Ferguson only ever comes in with a raise (no limps), and the size of the raise is 100% based on position: 2xBB (minraise) from UTG, and 4xBB from the button, with varying amounts in between. Each limper ahead equals one more BB added to the raise size.
Harrington tends to the random side of things (2x to 5x BB) but skews things based on his holdings: TT and JJ, for instance, skew more toward 4x and 5xBB raise sizes. Playing against someone like this is delicious if you can see some of their showdowns and correlate back to the preflop play.
If you're putting this guy on a Harrington-style (or "Harringbot" as Snyder calls them) play, then a mid-pair is a pretty standard guess.
I get :Ah: :9h: and am feeling pretty good. Flop comes :Ac: :9s: :Qd:, Bob bets, I raise, he calls. We are about 5x BB atm. I got 2 pair and want to let him lead into me. :7s: comes on the turn and Bob checks and I bet 5x the BB, trying to scare him off. Usually when he checks he doesn't got squat. He goes all in... So I have to do my "analysis" since clearly I refuse to calculate odds like you lads do.
Careful. What we're doing in this thread (and the other thread I linked above) is post-play analysis. This is different (and potentially *very different*) from what we actually do at the table. I've been present when my wife tells other people what my playing style is, and invariably the primary adjective she uses is "mathematical." Every time she says this I simulaneously glow and wince (inside). I glow because that means one of the toughest opponents in my weekly home game has me pegged completely backwards, and wince because I'm an engineer by nature and have some gene in my body that makes me uncomfortable whenever I hear something that is incorrect stated as fact.

I don't question that I'm more mathematical than 90% of the participants in our home game, but that mostly comes from me knowing a little bit about the math involved in the game. It is not too often (certainly not every week) that using this math affects my decision in how I play a pot when I'm at the table. Now maybe the underlying intuition I have for the game is based on subconcious math operations taking place in my brain (this is very likely the case), but the thought process I use at the table definitely has the appearance of being intuitive and by-feel as opposed to by-the-numbers.

But what's the point of talking about how things "felt" when you're posting your story on a web forum? You already know how things turned out, so when you say things like "I totally put him on :4c: :3c: and it turns out I was absolutely correct!!!" then your audience gets to mentally bust this guy out while reading about the hand. More interesting (to me, at least) is to see if the numbers end up justifying the play or highlighting possible alternative plays which may have worked out more in your favor.
I went from chip in a chair to big stack before being broken by runner-runners. It was pretty much one of the better tournaments for me in terms of how I played, including a few I won.

I miss taking suckers money though :)
Pretty awesome feeling to stage a huge come back like that. I feel pretty fortunate that we basically get to play in a live game, in our own basement, just about every weekend that we're at home. I know I'd go a bit stir-crazy if life conspired to take that away.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

The Meal:

I dunno if you have been keeping up with the Absolute Poker/UB scandal, but it's gotten pretty crazy lately:

PokerNomics Summary
Two Plus Two Thread
Freddy Deeb is accused of transferring millions that eventually seem to trace back to the SuperUser accounts.

A rogue, apparently from the "Inside" posts transfer logs, possibly linking the scandal to Mr. Hellmuth and others.

At least one of the cheating accounts apparently has an address listed that is the home of Russ Hamilton, one of the owners? behind UB/AB.

Annie Duke, several years ago, worked for the company that wrote the UB/Absolute software.

Annie accused of cheating.

It's like a detective/mafia movie. :shock:
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

SpaceLord wrote:I dunno if you have been keeping up with the Absolute Poker/UB scandal, but it's gotten pretty crazy lately:
I haven't. Having this stuff blocked from work ( :( ) and just getting back from our family trip has kept me pretty clueless. I did follow the road to the November Nine in the main event, and saw that PokerNews had to issue a statement when Tiffany Michelle was sportin' a UB logo as she approached (but ultimately missed :( ) the final table, but I could only wonder WTF the deal is. Since I can't google it, would you care to share any more of the dirty details above and beyond your scaffolding?
Freddy Deeb is accused of transferring millions that eventually seem to trace back to the SuperUser accounts.
FD getting accused of "going south" during the episodes of High Stakes Poker entertained me to no end. I know little about his character, however, so can't form an opinion about how believable this rumor would be.
A rogue, apparently from the "Inside" posts transfer logs, possibly linking the scandal to Mr. Hellmuth and others.
This is pretty tough to believe. My understanding is that the Hellmuth engine is pretty much a cash cow. For him to be involved in shady dealings stretches my brain. From what little I know of Phil Jr's character, I also find this a tough cookie to eat.
At least one of the cheating accounts apparently has an address listed that is the home of Russ Hamilton, one of the owners? behind UB/AB.
OUCH.
Annie Duke, several years ago, worked for the company that wrote the UB/Absolute software.

Annie accused of cheating.
Sounds like the type of thing where you figure out who has the most money and then decide they're the person you should sue. I'm no AD fan by any stretch of the imagination, but can't see how this one would add up.
It's like a detective/mafia movie. :shock:
DETAILS!!
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

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The Meal wrote: DETAILS!!
Yes, details! I didn't know things had taken a twist either. I'll see if I can dig up any other links, but it sounds like you're more in tune with this story. I'm certainly interested in hearing more.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

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Here's the most damning indictment:

Image

Guess who the circled person is?

:shock:
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

Yeah, I spent 20 minutes poking around looking at things last night. Pretty damning stuff. The big bummer is that it happened so long ago but nothing was done with the information in the mean time. When I tell folks in RL that I play online cards, invariably the reaction involves wondering if I'm taking proper precaution to make sure I'm not getting scammed. Seeing how this situation was handled shoots a big hole in a lot of the defenses I offer up to that query. :(

At least the truth comes out in the end, but one wonders if there aren't concurrent scams of similar nature going on at other sites. Fortunately for me, there's always the "they don't counterfeit one-dollar bills" defense. :)
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by theohall »

Finally won my first free $5 on P* Hadn't been able to play for awhile and I've discovered it's much easier to reach the "money" in the Short Hand NL tournaments when they offer those Freerolls. Now it's time to "build a bank."

Wound up 215 out of 2000 and lost when I had 3 K and the other guy got hearts on the street and river to complete his heart flush. Only 1 heart showed on the flop and he went with it. I had the 3 Ks on the flop so it's an easy All-In call at a 6-man table. I'd make that "mistake" again in a heartbeat. (one of my K was the :Kh: ) (Top 250 paid - kind of a small crowd for a Freeroll)
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

theohall wrote:Finally won my first free $5 on P* Hadn't been able to play for awhile and I've discovered it's much easier to reach the "money" in the Short Hand NL tournaments when they offer those Freerolls. Now it's time to "build a bank."

Wound up 215 out of 2000 and lost when I had 3 K and the other guy got hearts on the street and river to complete his heart flush. Only 1 heart showed on the flop and he went with it. I had the 3 Ks on the flop so it's an easy All-In call at a 6-man table. I'd make that "mistake" again in a heartbeat. (one of my K was the :Kh: ) (Top 250 paid - kind of a small crowd for a Freeroll)

Congrats! Freerolls kinda scare me. I'd hate to get deep in one and lose short of the money, it's an irrational thought, I know.

The Meal, The Heartland is coming back this way starting next weekend, I believe. They are having 80$ qualifier turbo qualifiers into the 340$ Qualifier. I'll give myself two before I consider buying into the 340$ game, hehe.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

Definitely want to give The Heartland a shot. May have an opportunity if I find myself in between jobs in the near future.

Books books books...

Recently reread the two Arnold Snyder books. PTF(1) is directly applicable to the local tournaments, PTF2 is a fun read for general interest, but not too applicable for the events we have available locally. Am just finishing up a reread of Tommy Angelo's Elements of Poker, which is always good to help get your head screwed on straight.

I was intending to go back and reread the two volumes of Harrington's cash game books, as they have some interesting ideas in them, but instead I went shopping (Amazon style). New to our poker library will be:
Power Hold'em Strategy (Paperback) - Daniel Negraneu
Tournament Poker: 101 Winning Moves: Expert Plays for No-Limit Tournaments (Paperback) - Mitchell Cogert
The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker (Paperback) - Matt Lessinger
Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume I (Paperback) - Eric 'Rizen' Lynch

Those should keep my mind occupied for the next while. :)
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by LordMortis »

What is P*?

Edit:

Never mind. It must be PokerStars. I think I hopped on there once and never went back.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

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Yep, you've got it. MHS plays there, and says they've made major improvements to their GUI (which is why I had preferred FullTiltPoker over PokerStars). It works out for us, however, as this way we can both play at the same time from the same IP address (on separate sites).
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

My mistake: The Heartland Poker Tour is this coming weekend.

Image

Starting Friday: 85$/115$ fast SNGs for entries into the 340$ Qualifier. There are 17 of these 340$ tourneys, the first one is noon on Saturday, and there's 2 a day for most of the next week and a half. The Main Event has 3 Flights, on Friday and Saturday, the 3rd and 4th, and the final day is the 5th.

I've kinda hooked up with the local pro, Jamal, and we are considering blitzing the qualifiers to get seats to sell. Last year, he made 10k selling seats.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

I decided to start reading in chronological order, which meant I started with the 2005 title, The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker. I wasn't expecting the world out of this one, given some of the negative feedback in the Amazon reviews. It's true that the focus of the book is mostly limit hold'em (with a few hands of PLO and stud thrown in), but it does a really nice job of getting you to consider times when a bluff may be appropriate. And Lessinger badgers you into making bluffs at times when you typically know you should bluff, but would let pass by (unraised pots, checked to the button on the flop). I'm happy I picked it up, and can see rereading it down the road. I'm about 75% finished with it (it arrived yesterday afternoon).
SpaceLord wrote:My mistake: The Heartland Poker Tour is this coming weekend.

Starting Friday: 85$/115$ fast SNGs for entries into the 340$ Qualifier. There are 17 of these 340$ tourneys, the first one is noon on Saturday, and there's 2 a day for most of the next week and a half. The Main Event has 3 Flights, on Friday and Saturday, the 3rd and 4th, and the final day is the 5th.
Top 20% of the $340 tournaments make it into the "main event" right? Looks like they're geared up to see about 400-500 in that tournament, right? (I'd go seek out this information myself, but as you know, I'm at a workplace that frowns on such things.) I thought the $85 SNGs would give out two seats, and the $115 three. Sounds like they're basically nitros (6-minute blinds, only really supposed to last an hour). I've got a great track record in those nitros (played at both the Gilpin and at Central Station), but I'm one of those players who doesn't mind mixing it up, nor do I mind if a failed move ends up looking really stupid (as long as I can justify things in my head, at least!).
I've kinda hooked up with the local pro, Jamal, and we are considering blitzing the qualifiers to get seats to sell. Last year, he made 10k selling seats.
That's awesome! It'd suck if I were trying to qualify for one, to bump into you guys, but it sounds like a great way to make some cashacola! Not sure if I'll be able to give it a shot; it turns out I'm *not* going to be between jobs (unless they shitcan me from where I'm currently working, in which case the "in between" part may last a while...) any time soon. Fritz is bugging me to join him up there, however. His style should work well for the SNGs (but I doubt he'd do too well in the MTT portion).
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

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The Meal:

Yes, the 85$ tourneys give 2 prizes of 340$, and the 115$ seats give 3 @ 340. The vig on the 115$ tourneys is 5% less, however. And I think I could nap my way to the bubble, and I'd like to think my bubble play during a SNG is good, especially when I know it's only survival that matters at that point.

And since they have 3 "flights" of the Main Event, let me do the math real quick:

The Gates has 16 tables. That's 160 players, max. Unless they go 11-handed, which is 176. With 3 flights, that would be 528 players, at maximum. Which would force them to not have any cash games that weekend.

If they did have 528, that would work out to a prize pool of ~792k, with first place taking home around 273k.

The Gates has become the 2nd place to play cash in BH, since beginning the 25k freeroll. Much to my suprise, they had 70+ people play 50 hours and qualify for the freeroll. I went to the Gilpin Monday, and it was dead. I imagine that the Gilpin is going to need to figure out a way to pull people away from the Gates: they are giving away a Harley, as well as several seats into the Five Diamond at the Bellagio this fall, but I dunno how that's going for them.
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

I meant to ask if The Lodge's bad beat had been busted. When MHS and I were up there on the 6th and 7th, that poker room was like the monkey house at the zoo. 200+ player wait lists, absolute insanity with every table filled up. It was awesome. :)
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

SpaceLord wrote:The Meal:

Yes, the 85$ tourneys give 2 prizes of 340$, and the 115$ seats give 3 @ 340. The vig on the 115$ tourneys is 5% less, however. And I think I could nap my way to the bubble, and I'd like to think my bubble play during a SNG is good, especially when I know it's only survival that matters at that point.
That 5% juice may not be enough to convince me to go that route. The 4-person bubble would suck a whole lot more than the 3-person bubble in the $85 tournaments, IMO.
And since they have 3 "flights" of the Main Event, let me do the math real quick:

The Gates has 16 tables. That's 160 players, max. Unless they go 11-handed, which is 176. With 3 flights, that would be 528 players, at maximum. Which would force them to not have any cash games that weekend.
Fritz said they moved two additional tables in over by the cage window (where the popcorn machine used to be). I thought I had counted 18 when MHS and I were up there a few weekends ago (the popcorn machine was moved over by the rail by the elevators). Tables over on that side of the room were *very* tight.
If they did have 528, that would work out to a prize pool of ~792k, with first place taking home around 273k.
:D: (Though with the final table scheduled to start on Sunday afternoon, I'm guessing an EXTREMELY fast structure all day on Sunday. I rather doubt, unless there's something stipulated in the made-for-TV contract regarding chops, nobody's leaving that table with $273,000 more dollars in their pockets.)
The Gates has become the 2nd place to play cash in BH, since beginning the 25k freeroll. Much to my suprise, they had 70+ people play 50 hours and qualify for the freeroll. I went to the Gilpin Monday, and it was dead. I imagine that the Gilpin is going to need to figure out a way to pull people away from the Gates: they are giving away a Harley, as well as several seats into the Five Diamond at the Bellagio this fall, but I dunno how that's going for them.
After playing both the Gilpin and the Gates, I can't imagine why someone'd play cash games at the Gilpin. The dealers are crappier, the folks organizing the poker room are *much* crappier, the cocktail waitresses are seriously less-hawt (and not just in uniforms!), the food vouchers are crappier, and the tables and chairs are cruddier. Even if you discount the $50k freeroll as an incentive, the Gates wins hands-down. Tournaments are a little tougher there, however.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
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The Meal
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by The Meal »

Finished Lessinger's book. My comments in the post above stand.

Book the second (I wanted to go in chronological order, but the three remaining books all came out in 2008, and I'm not going off to research the order more specifically than that) was selected to be Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume I. I'm maybe 5% into it. Three authors of differing internet styles taking on lots of different hands. It's in the theme of the underrated Middle Limit Holdem Poker (2002) by Bob Ciaffone and Jim Brier, which is one of my top reads of all time (for the intermediate/advanced player). They just tackle hand after hand after hand and explain why they made the decisions they did. The Ciaffone book is organized better, but the details behind the decisions are better in the Lynch book. And, of course, this book isn't tackling mid-limit ring games, it's tackling no-limit tournaments. I don't hold any of the authors on a pedestal (one of my fears behind it's high customer rating on Amazon, internet users virtually slobbing the knob of internet poker "legends") but so far the Jon "PearlJammer" Turner section has been fantastic. And apparently the best part of the book is yet to come, where all three authors take on the same set of 20 hands (potentially in different manners).
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
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SpaceLord
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Re: Poker Strategy Discussion

Post by SpaceLord »

Quick Report on the Heartland:

I've tried 3 of the 115$ SNGs, and I am done with them, they are way too fast. In the first 2, I was the short stack with 4 left and shoved 55 & 66 from the button, and both times one of the blinds had AA. The 3rd tourney, I shoved from the Hijack, and the SB had AA, and I was busted.

I only lasted 20 minutes in the one Qualifier I played on Saturday, when my AK flopped AK2, and the other player had AA.
They're going to send you back to mother in a cardboard box...
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