Poker Strategy Discussion

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:48 am

Well, that's no good.

I think I'm going to see if Shannon's willing to head up this Sunday...

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 4:56 pm

Shannon's out of town for the weekend of the main event, so she didn't join me.

I purchased directly into the $300+40 qualifier. This is by far the most expensive poker tournament I've purchased into (beating my previous record by $240). Ahead of time, I was concerned that this could affect my play, but as it turned out, it didn't really enter my consciousness while I was at the tables. It *did* weigh heavily on my mind as I tried to fall asleep the night before — I kept telling myself that even with the best-case scenario, my chances of making money with this $340 investment was only 15-18%. And that I could get myself a replacement Xbox with that money and still have $140 to spare.

Got to the poker room about 40 minutes before the tournament started. Since there's a televised final table, they had release forms for everyone to fill out. There were a few funny phrases in the lawyer-speak (if I remember to log in from home, maybe I could repost some of it) that made me chuckle. The tournament was capped at 132 players maximum, but only 87 folks actually bought-in. 20% (rounded down) would be qualifying for the main event, which meant 17 "winners" and 70 "losers." I ended up in this second group.

The first table at which I sat was pretty conservative. There were four players at the table who I knew "by name" (not in the sense that they'd know my name, just that the dealers and regulars in the poker room tend to be on first-name basis with each other). There were only two players at my table who I hadn't seen playing cards in Black Hawk before. But for the most part, I've played enough cards with "the regulars" to know that just because someone's a fixture in the poker room, that doesn't mean they know what they're doing. Apparently some of these people have large trust funds or something...

We started with T10,000, blinds went up every 30 minutes, and the first few levels went T100/100-0, T200/100-0, T400/200-0, T600/300-0, T600/300-100, T400/800-100 (then I busted out). There was lots of play, so there isn't much surprise that folks played relatively conservatively. For the first couple of blind levels, I kept just about par, though I got (internally) frustrated when I'd catch KJs-type hands in the blinds (having to fold to MP raises), then once I'd get into the advantages seats (button, CU, HJ) I'd find myself sitting there with 63s and 74s. I had a great table image, though!

Finally at the T400/200-0 level, I was in the SB, and got raised to T1400 by the button. He was really working on a tight image with me, frequently showing me big folds (tossing away JJ's as a second pair when the board would flop K82). His raise was a bit larger than the table norm for that level, but not so much that it screamed out that he didn't want action. I looked down at my hand and saw two black aces, and I spent about 30 seconds considering my options. I finally just smooth called. On a Q73 flop (two clubs) I checked to him, he put in a T2000 bet, I raised to T5500, and he shoved all-in. I had him covered (but not by much) when I called. He showed me two black Kings. "That's a cooler," I said as I shook his hand while he was gathering his stuff.

Shortly after my double up, they broke down our table. At my new table, my stack (which basically was 80% larger than any of my previous tablemates') was basically par. Apparently this was the table where folks were playing more aggressively, as stacks ranged from a couple of shorties (T4,000 or less) to a few that were in the T25k - T30k range. I managed to get chipped down a bit when I'd get AT hands reraised (which I'd then fold preflop). One hand that steamed me up a bit saw an EP short stack standard raise in the pot (we were at T600/300-100 at this point, so T1900 in the pot before any betting) at T1500, me calling on the button with A5o, and the supertight SB also calling. On a

flop betting saw the SB check, the short stack shove in his last T4700, me only calling (though I debated shoving in my T18,000 stack to try to isolate the raiser), and the SB coming over the top by shoving *his* stack (I had him covered but only by less than T2000). I debated furiously but without a club in my hand, I decided I had to fold. The EP player showed

and the SB showed

. Of course the turn was the

and the river some non-club blank, and I got a bit twitchy at the thought that such a large pot could've been mine. There's no way the SB wasn't going to call my all-in shove (had I played the hand that way on the flop), and I would've been a bit sick when I saw what I would've been up against (though the fact that they *both* had clubs would've made me feel a bit more comfortable), but pulling in a pot that'd stacked me up to roughly T40,000 would have given me a *lot* of flexibility. SpaceLord pointed out that the par "winning" stack would be T50,000 chips, and I estimated that if I had ever got to T65,000 chips, I could basically quit looking at my cards and just fold my way into a top spot. T40,000 would've gone a long way toward getting me the ammo I needed to chip my way up.

The hand that did me in makes me a bit sick in retrospect. I should've been smarter and not got myself into the pickle I did. The EP player KOed from the previous hand was replaced with a very distinctive kid, with Phil Helmuth Oakleys (that played music), a MP3 player banded prominently to his upper arm, lots of sparkly bling on his fingers, neck and ears, and the most obsequious card protector I've ever seen — a faux-diamond Chinese lion the size of two Twinkies (you could barely see that he had cards underneath). He had a real reckless air about him, and he played a hand shortly after getting to our table that indicated as such. He showed up short stacked at about T6000, but after a horrid flop lay-down by one of the weakies at our table (Bling reraised for his last T1900 on a three-spade flop, and the weakie folded) he managed to get back on track. He took down a couple of other flops uncontested, and by the time we got into what would be my final hand, he had grown his stack to a couple of thousand more than mine.

T800/400-100 blinds, so T2200 in the pot preflop. Bling is in EP and makes a standard raise to T2500. Folded to me, again on the button, and I look down to see AKo (stack size: T19,000 before the ante). I debated back and forth about whether or not to raise, but finally decided I could get more chips by smooth-calling. Blinds both fold. Flop comes AQ7 rainbow, and I'm thinking "now I'm in business." He checks to me, I bet out T3700 into a pot of T5700. He internally debates and finally calls. Now I'm putting him on a worse A or some sort of broadway straight draw. The turn is a nondescript 6 (the second diamond) and I'm thinking "this doesn't change anything." He checks, I bet out 1/3rd of my remaining stack with T4200. At the time I knew it was relatively tiny (into a pot of T13,100) but I was pretty sure I was value betting here. Bling hadn't shown patience at the table, and the board really didn't have me scared. Again, he called, and we got to see the river. River comes an off-suit 4, making the board AQ764. There's no way an 8-5 a 5-3 or a 4-4 was playing against me, so no worries for that last card. Again he checks. But here I respond with the CLASSIC poker mistake (one I should be way way way too smart not to make). Holding a hand with showdown value I make that bet on the river that can only get called by a hand that beats mine. I had sized my turn bet to let me put in a sizable river bet, and I shoved in my last T8,500. He thought about it for a couple of seconds and called. Well, at that moment, I realized I had to be beat, and I flipped up my cards and said "I've only got one pair." He relished the moment for a second or two before flipping up the AQ of diamonds. Adios to me!

In retrospect, I justified my play based on his previous play at the table. I thought I would get a call out of AJ or AT, but in looking back at how the hand played out, he absolutely *had* to have AQ. The board was pretty unthreatening, which meant he wasn't drawing (nor was he worried about me making a draw), and just because I had seen him play risky poker when he was the short stack at the table, that didn't mean that he was some kind of kamikazi pilot once he had chips. I think one could take issue with my play at several stages of the hand, but the worst decision (and the one I've had the hardest time getting over) was my play on the river. I made a rookie mistake, one I'm very capable of not making, and it cost me. Yeah, coming back from T8500 wouldn't have been a lot of fun, but I play a pretty mean short stack, and I actually relish the chance of being able to get in there and mix it up a bit more.

As it was, my bust-out gave the table a lot more information about how Bling plays cards, and I'm pretty sure that I wouldn't ever forget his face (or style) were we ever to sit at the same table again.

So no Heartland Poker Tour main event for me.

SpaceLord's in, however! So OO has a horse to root for!

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:43 pm

Yeah, I read your email during first break in my tourney. I busted like 5 spots from the money anyway.

And one of my weaknesses is watching someone that seems reckless and assume they have nothing, which, of course, is bad reasoning. I sometimes need to be more careful.

And I've heard rumors of Heartland certs selling for north of 2k. Very tempting... Friday and Saturday they have SNGs costing 350 that award top 2 with certs. Tempting, gah!

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:57 pm

I've only been to the poker rooms on Saturdays and Sundays. Compare/contrast Friday nights to the Saturday/Sunday afternoon/evenings up there for me, if you would. MHS is seriously considering moving our (weekend) poker night from Saturday to Friday because that'd free us up for the seemingly easy-money to be had in the Saturday afternoon MTTs.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 1:38 pm

The Meal wrote:I've only been to the poker rooms on Saturdays and Sundays. Compare/contrast Friday nights to the Saturday/Sunday afternoon/evenings up there for me, if you would. MHS is seriously considering moving our (weekend) poker night from Saturday to Friday because that'd free us up for the seemingly easy-money to be had in the Saturday afternoon MTTs.

I would definitely say the later play is a bit wilder, more people ordering drinks. Of course, if you assume people make sense, like I often do, it becomes a bit more of a guessing game. The Colossal each Saturday morning at the Gilpin is probably both the slowest and the hardest tournament in town. The $150 tourney at 3 often has those that bust early from the 11AM, and is fairly tough as well.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 1:40 pm

And, the hammer drops on Russ Hamilton:

Kahnawake Gaming Commission Announces Sanctions on UltimateBet: Russ Hamilton Named

Official press release below:

Press Release wrote: According to KGC Chairman Montour, the Commission has reviewed the information provided to it over the past months from Frank Catania of Catania Gaming Consultants of New Jersey; Gaming Associates, an Australian game testing company; and the permit holder. Chairman Montour said, "The Commissioners have made several findings of fact with regard to the cheating that occurred on the Ultimate Bet web site that included the identification of some of the individuals responsible for these incidents as well other significant violations of the Kahnawa:ke Interactive Gaming Regulations."

The Commission found clear and convincing evidence to support the conclusion that between the approximate dates of May 2004 to January 2008, Russell Hamilton, an individual associated with Ultimate Bet's affiliate program, was the main person responsible for and benefiting from the multiple cheating incidents. Furthermore, the KGC is currently in contact with the appropriate law enforcement agencies and intends to fully cooperate in the prosecution of all individuals involved in the UB cheating incidents.

Mr. Catania states, "My intention is to provide further information as it is uncovered, although the information already submitted to the KGC relating to Ultimate Bet warrants the KGC taking the actions it has today. Any further evidence uncovered with regard to cheating, withholding or destroying records in our continuing investigation will be reported to the KGC and the proper agency for appropriate action."

As a result of the KGC's findings of fact, the Commission called a special meeting, at which time it was unanimously decided to impose the following sanctions against Ultimate Bet:

1. Ultimate Bet is directed that by November 3, 2008 it shall, under the close supervision of the KGC, its employees and agents, commence refunding all players accounts found to have been adversely affected by the cheating of individuals under the control and supervision of the licensee. It is estimated that Ultimate Bet has to date reimbursed $6.1 million USD to players' accounts found to have been adversely impacted by the cheating activity

2. Ultimate Bet is directed that by November 3, 2008 it is to remove any and all persons deemed as "unsuitable" by the KGC from all involvement with the company, which shall include all levels of ownership, management and operation. Ultimate Bet during that time period until November 3, 2008 is required to continue to provide complete details of all day-to-day operations of the company. These shall include financial as well as daily gaming records to Frank Catania and or his assigns. It is anticipated that this action will provide full disclosure and prevent any further improprieties or wrongdoing from occurring while ensuring that the public is being offered fair and honest games and all player monies will be protected.

3. Ultimate Bet's control system as defined in section 9 of the Kahnawa:ke Interactive Gaming Regulations has been modified to prevent any further incidents of cheating or related improprieties.

4. Ultimate Bet will not delete or modify any logs including but not limited to web logs and game logs as required by the Kahnawa:ke Interactive Gaming Regulations and will continue to have those logs immediately available for inspection by the KGC or its agents.

5. Ultimate Bet shall immediately pay a fine of $1.5 Million USD to the KGC for its failure to implement and enforce measures to prohibit and detect fraudulent activities.

6. Ultimate Bet's failure to comply fully with these measures will result in the immediate revocation of its KGC gaming permit.

Murray Marshall
Senior Advisor
Kahnawa:ke Gaming Commission

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 1:50 pm

What's the deal with the heartland poker tour. I see they are running it in greektown in October. I've been debating spending some real money in a real tourney just to do it. But sadly none of the three casinos here post great information about their poker rooms (with greektown actually having something useful but not quite enough because a lot of stuff references leagues)

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:11 pm

LordMortis wrote:What's the deal with the heartland poker tour. I see they are running it in greektown in October. I've been debating spending some real money in a real tourney just to do it. But sadly none of the three casinos here post great information about their poker rooms (with greektown actually having something useful but not quite enough because a lot of stuff references leagues)

The Heartland is both a weekly league as well as a touring tournament. Each member casino hosts at least 1 tournament a week, and if you do well enough, you can get entries into the Qualifiers for each tour stop's Main Event. About 3 weeks before each Main Event, the casino holds qualifiers.

These qualifiers are SitNGos, with a 85$/115$ fee, and cash going to the top two/three each time. The prize in these, 340$, is equal to the entry fee for the Qualifiers, held up to 2 times per day. These qualifiers are fairly long, 6 hour-ish tournaments, and the top 20% make the Main Event. At Greektown, anyone can buy a Main Event entry for 1650$. And, premiering at the Greektown event, the Main Event will have 25k chips, instead of 15k, as in the past.

The Greektown tour stop seems to be among the most popular on the tour, the last event held in May gave 215k to the winner.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Oct 01, 2008 4:15 pm

SpaceLord wrote:
The Meal wrote:I've only been to the poker rooms on Saturdays and Sundays. Compare/contrast Friday nights to the Saturday/Sunday afternoon/evenings up there for me, if you would. MHS is seriously considering moving our (weekend) poker night from Saturday to Friday because that'd free us up for the seemingly easy-money to be had in the Saturday afternoon MTTs.
I would definitely say the later play is a bit wilder, more people ordering drinks. Of course, if you assume people make sense, like I often do, it becomes a bit more of a guessing game. The Colossal each Saturday morning at the Gilpin is probably both the slowest and the hardest tournament in town. The $150 tourney at 3 often has those that bust early from the 11AM, and is fairly tough as well.

Ah, yes! I do remember. The first time MHS and I played up there (about three years ago), we spent a Friday night and camped out in the $2-$5 game at the Colorado Central Station. I recall taking serious advantage of a few of the more inebriated players that evening.

If there's a slow tournament not going on at the Gates around noon on Saturdays, that'd explain the weak field we bumped into when we played earlier in September.

Check out my idea for replacing the Bounty Tournament weekend at our place on our poker page (in my signature). I think you'll be happy with my newest ("Idea the Third") suggestion.

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:06 pm

I have a generic strategy sort of question. This has come up a couple of times in my own play. Lets say I am at either a final table or a ways into a sit and go. There are 6 people left at the table. Player S is the shortest stack with 120 chips. We'll say the BB is currently at 50. I have about 1500 chips holding A-x off. Player S goes all in. Player B, also with about 1500 chips, calls, as do I. The flop comes out with nothing too odd. Maybe J-8-3. I'm figuring player B went in with garbage just on the chance to knock out player S. Player B checks to me.

My inclination here is to bet (which is what I've done each time in this situation). I think I have at least second best hand so far, so I don't want to give B a chance to improve his hand for free, plus I'd like to be able to win something even if S has me beat.

This move has more than once drawn vile insults from player B. He apparently feels that there is tremendous benefit to everyone to see the turn and river for the possibility of knocking out S. All I know is that it doesn't benefit me at all to give chips to B if I don't have to.

How do y'all treat these situations?

(edited to make pronouns consistent.)

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:43 pm

paulbaxter wrote:I have a generic strategy sort of question. This has come up a couple of times in my own play. Lets say I am at either a final table or a ways into a sit and go. There are 6 people left at the table. Player S is the shortest stack with 120 chips. We'll say the BB is currently at 50. I have about 1500 chips holding A-x off. Player S goes all in. Player B, also with about 1500 chips, calls, as do I. The flop comes out with nothing too odd. Maybe J-8-3. I'm figuring player B went in with garbage just on the chance to knock out player S. Player B checks to me.

My inclination here is to bet (which is what I've done each time in this situation). I think I have at least second best hand so far, so I don't want to give B a chance to improve his hand for free, plus I'd like to be able to win something even if S has me beat.

This move has more than once drawn vile insults from player B. He apparently feels that there is tremendous benefit to everyone to see the turn and river for the possibility of knocking out S. All I know is that it doesn't benefit me at all to give chips to B if I don't have to.

How do y'all treat these situations?

(edited to make pronouns consistent.)

Betting into a "dry pot" is generally discouraged unless you have a hand you are fairly sure will beat the all-in player. Right at the bubble, it's even more frowned upon. You might not have the best hand with Ace high, "S" might be playing Ax, where X is a Jack, or an 8. The pot is currently 525. If you don't flop a middle pair or better, don't bet. If you bet, and are 2nd best, you're not going to win anything more than your bet into the dry pot, and you are going to triple up the short stack, greatly complicating further hands for all left.

The dry side pot is essentially playing poker with no reward. If I bet, say 200, I can win....my 200 chips back, and still lose the 150 I have already invested if I am 2nd best.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:58 pm

Comes down to which you think is more profitable to you: a) knocking out player S, or b) some chance of stealing the chips in the pot. If you're at 4 players left in a SNG when three get paid, a) is probably more profitable to you. If you're sitting on the monster chipstack on the bubble of a 1500 person tournament, then continuing being on the bubble is probably more profitable (if you push your opponent off his hand but then go on to lose to the short stack, you're still in a good position to keep stealing from the rest of the table).

Folks like getting irate. Sometimes they're actually right to get mad, but not always.

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:47 am

SpaceLord wrote:
Betting into a "dry pot" is generally discouraged unless you have a hand you are fairly sure will beat the all-in player. Right at the bubble, it's even more frowned upon. You might not have the best hand with Ace high, "S" might be playing Ax, where X is a Jack, or an 8. The pot is currently 525. If you don't flop a middle pair or better, don't bet. If you bet, and are 2nd best, you're not going to win anything more than your bet into the dry pot, and you are going to triple up the short stack, greatly complicating further hands for all left.

The dry side pot is essentially playing poker with no reward. If I bet, say 200, I can win....my 200 chips back, and still lose the 150 I have already invested if I am 2nd best.

There are other ways to think about this.

I am not, at the moment, worried about S (S for short). I've already put in my chips to max him out. Nothing I do other than folding will affect my chances against him. Also, depending on the exact chip counts in the situation, I may not be worried about how he ends up if he wins. I am more worried about the other big stack. If I don't bet, I am offering him infinite odds to stay in. He might have a straight or flush draw. Why should I let him keep looking for free? My own odds of winning are better against just one other player than against two, almost no matter what the cards are.

(Also, why should he bitch about having to put in a single bet to see the turn? I never put in a large bet here.)

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:13 am

The Meal wrote:Folks like getting irate. Sometimes they're actually right to get mad, but not always.

To them I say "meh". If I am making dumb plays you should be happy.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:58 am

paulbaxter wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:
Betting into a "dry pot" is generally discouraged unless you have a hand you are fairly sure will beat the all-in player. Right at the bubble, it's even more frowned upon. You might not have the best hand with Ace high, "S" might be playing Ax, where X is a Jack, or an 8. The pot is currently 525. If you don't flop a middle pair or better, don't bet. If you bet, and are 2nd best, you're not going to win anything more than your bet into the dry pot, and you are going to triple up the short stack, greatly complicating further hands for all left.

The dry side pot is essentially playing poker with no reward. If I bet, say 200, I can win....my 200 chips back, and still lose the 150 I have already invested if I am 2nd best.
There are other ways to think about this.

I am not, at the moment, worried about S (S for short). I've already put in my chips to max him out. Nothing I do other than folding will affect my chances against him. Also, depending on the exact chip counts in the situation, I may not be worried about how he ends up if he wins. I am more worried about the other big stack. If I don't bet, I am offering him infinite odds to stay in. He might have a straight or flush draw. Why should I let him keep looking for free? My own odds of winning are better against just one other player than against two, almost no matter what the cards are.

(Also, why should he bitch about having to put in a single bet to see the turn? I never put in a large bet here.)

As I indicated, there are sometimes reasons why making the bet into a dry pot with an all-in player is correct. It's not too hard to envision the math where it is correct and when it is not correct.

You're right to say that your own odds of winning are better when you've only got one opponent. But are your own odds enough improved to overcome the improved-odds you're giving to the all-in short stack? That's situation-dependent. If the hands are:
S:

You:

Opponent:

Board:

Then (depending on the sizes of the stack, the pot, and the payout schedule), you may be doing yourself and/or your opponents a disservice by pushing out the 14-outer vs. the made hand, when you've only got the 6-outer draw.

As a shorthand, the general rule of thumb is that you don't push out an opponent who could deliver the KO blow vs. a short-stack when you're on the bubble. Generally it improves your tournament equity to improve your own personal odds of getting into the money, and this is best accomplished by keeping as many healthy-stacks in the pot vs. the short stacked player. Again, this suffers from all things rule-of-thumby — sometimes the situation is special to the extent where you should deviate from the generally-accepted play. (See my "Shortly after my double up," example, above, of my A5o vs. my opponent's A4s. He correctly pushed me out in that situation.)

LordMortis wrote:
The Meal wrote:Folks like getting irate. Sometimes they're actually right to get mad, but not always.
To them I say "meh". If I am making dumb plays you should be happy.

Poker's a people-game played with randomizing bits of paper and hidden information. If "dumb" plays (or better, "irrational" plays) get the opposition off their people skills, then they can (sometimes) deliver a larger benefit than the downside of their substandard nature.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 12:19 pm

Another consideration is just how short the shortstack is. If he is on the button, shoves, and wins, going through the blinds twice more will leave him with 295 chips, I believe. I'm not sure of the other stacks at the table, but I would guess that your 1500 stack is average, at best. The primary reason to keep S alive is to extend the bubble pressure. If you're not among the chip leaders, this pressure is hard to exert.

Another possibility is what the Independent Chip Model says to do. ICM involves solving several simultaneous equations. A quick search of the internet brought me here:

ICM Calculator

I made the following assumptions.

1. There were 9 players, and each began with 1500 chips.
2. The other 3, unknown players have equal chip stacks. (3460 chips)

ICM works better the closer you get to the bubble, and this simple calculator doesn't apparently do hand ranges versus your hand. But from a pure chip equity standpoint, the short stack has 1% equity in the prize pool, you and B have 12.66% each, and the other three stacks split the remainder, 24.525% each.

If S wins, their equity goes to 3.259%, and B and you decrease a bit to 11.706%.

Of course, this little calculator leaves a lot out:

Hand ranges
Size of Blinds
Fold equity
Position of stacks around the table

I'm not sure any ICM program can account for position.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Sun Oct 05, 2008 1:32 am

My Heartland Poker Tour experience was brief.

In the first hour, I had AK 4 times. All four times, missed the flop, and my C-bet got check raised, all-in twice, huge overshoves. Both times my opponent flopped a small set.

For the next 2 hours, I won exactly one hand, in the Big Blind. I once had AA in the BB, and was the happy recipient of the only BB walk the entire tournament at my table.

I eventually wore down to 5k, shoved with KTs from the cutoff, the SB called, showed AK, and the flop came AAA.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Sun Oct 05, 2008 1:51 pm

Whose dog did you kick?

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:49 pm

The Meal wrote:Whose dog did you kick?

I was actually OK with it. There's nothing I could have done. Even though I've been running bad in live games lately, I don't think I've been playing badly. Nothing goes my way, it seems. Just gotta ride it out.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:13 am

I drowned my sorrows last night and this morning play cheap qualifiers to the Sunday Millions on Pokerstars.

After about 100 bucks spent(the normal entry fee is 215), I qualified 30 minutes before it began.

There were over 7300 runners, and I finished 149th for 1650 bucks.

Took about 6 hours, it was a wild ride. Amazing how you can outlast over 7100 people and still not make a ton of money. I'll take it, though.

My high point was 24/600. The last 2 hours or so, I was card dead. I've discovered the progression for getting chips goes:

Really big stack: Steal. A lot. From all positions. If you're reraised and have trash, do the pot odds calculations.

Big stack: steal at least once an orbit. Consider 3-betting a raiser if you have a good hand and can afford a call. If you can steal twice an orbit, try it.

Medium stack: Resteal, if you can. Try a naked steal occasionally. Re-raise with AQ+.

Small stack: Shove into any two blinds you can hurt with any top 30% or so hand.

Tiny stack: Shove any ace, any king, any two cards above 10, any pair 77+. Pray to the poker gods.

Due to my awful run of cards, I went from Really Big Stack to Tiny stack, back to medium stack after KQ>QT, and then to tiny stack, and AJ lost to the big stack's JJ.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:56 pm

A $1500+ profit ain't to shabby for such a wild ride.

I found it worthwhile to memorize the "what beats the average random hand" chart. I think this comes from Ferguson or Bloch.

22+
Ax
Kx
Qxs
Q5o+
J6s+
J8o+
T9
98s

Voila. There's your shove with a tiny stack list.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:48 pm

New Question!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00+$0.30 Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds 100 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t24635)
SpaceLordOO (UTG) (t57185)
UTG+1 (t62553)
MP1 (t3785)
MP2 (t3673)
CO (t29119)
Button (t65286)
SB (t11705)

SpaceLordOO's M: 24.86

Preflop: SpaceLordOO is UTG with Q

, Q

SpaceLordOO raises to t3000, UTG+1 calls t3000, 3 folds, Button calls t3000, SB raises to t11605 (All-In), 1 fold, SpaceLordOO calls t8605, UTG+1 calls t8605, Button calls t8605

Flop: (t48220) 10

, 4

, 6

(4 players, 1 all-in)
SpaceLordOO bets t27000, UTG+1 calls t27000, 1 fold

Turn: (t102220) 5

(3 players, 1 all-in)
SpaceLordOO bets t18480 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t18480

River: (t139180) K

(3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t139180

I was 25th or so in chips.
Can I fold at any point?

Do I shove QQ preflop?

Do I bet this dry flop/sidepot?
What do I think when he snap calls me every time I bet?

This is a toughie.

I'll post my thoughts after the replies.

(For those who can't visit gambling sites at work, I have

as my hole cards, and the flop came T46 rainbow, and the turn was a 5, putting 2 diamonds on the board)

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:03 am

SpaceLord wrote:Preflop: SpaceLordOO is UTG with
SpaceLordOO raises to t3000, UTG+1 calls t3000, 3 folds, Button calls t3000, SB raises to t11605 (All-In), 1 fold, SpaceLordOO calls t8605, UTG+1 calls t8605, Button calls t8605

I've done this countless times, to the point where I know I'll not ever make this mistake again. If you credit UTG+1 or the Button with the ability to call-raise with AA or KK, then yours isn't a mistake, but in any other case your flat-call with QQ is a very distinct mistake. By only calling, you're playing your queens against four opponents to make a set, as any A, K, two-flush, or straightening cards are extremely threatening to your hand. With one player having you out-chipped, this is *not* the hand to use to embrace variance and try to double-up+. KO the short stack and be done with it.

Flop: (t48220)
SpaceLordOO bets t27000, UTG+1 calls t27000, 1 fold

Knowing that you reposted the hand because it eats at you, it's really easy to put UTG+1 on the 87 double-belly-buster here. And obviously he makes his straight on the next card.

Turn: (t102220)
(3 players, 1 all-in)
SpaceLordOO bets t18480 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t18480

River: (t139180)
(3 players, 2 all-in)

Can I fold at any point?

Yes, but only if bet differently. If the betting was done slower, you could've gone for checking it down on the end. The 3-card straight and the overcard on the river would have also allowed you to eject.

Do I shove QQ preflop?

Yes, definitely, but only after the SB shoved. Isolate the weakie with a hand that doesn't seek extra opposition.

Do I bet this dry flop/sidepot?

This is the tough decision you're trying to avoid by shoving preflop. But since you've got everything but AA, KK, and a flopped set beat, I think you end up shoving (out of position) on that flop. There are too many opponents to allow a draw to get there. And with two more active players left and considering the pot-odds they were getting to make the (second) preflop call, you've got to figure that draw (78, 75, 53) could be out there.

What do I think when he snap calls me every time I bet?

Oh fuck. (Depending on whether you've got him pegged as a good player or not.)

This is a toughie.

I don't think so. This one seems pretty straightforward (based on my own poor performance playing in similar situations).

(For those who can't visit gambling sites at work, I have as my hole cards, and the flop came T46 rainbow, and the turn was a 5, putting 2 diamonds on the board)

THANKS! I had to convert the output above into OO format so I could figure out what was going on.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:27 am

Ok, here's my rationale.

I am 20/600 in chips, and my M is almost 25. The table has been passive, and the bubble is fast approaching. I do well at the bubble with a good stack, I think I can chip up even more as people feel the bubble pressure.

It was a tough decision not to shove preflop, but both callers of my UTG raise had as many chips as I did.

If I shove to isolate the short stack, and win, I chip up a bit. If I shove, get called by either big stack, I take the chip lead.

If I shove and lose, I go from 20/600 to bust. If either of the callers has AK+, and calls my shove, I am in a coin flip that I don't think I need, in the best case scenario.

The difference between 20/600 and 1/600 at this point was not worth all my chips at that point.

My biggest problem with my play was the C-bet on the flop. Because I am OOP the whole hand, I can't get much information at all from the UTG+1 player. If I check, and he bets, what do I do? The flop was great for me.

In the actual hand, UTG +1 had KK, rivered a set, and busted me.

I've been discussing this hand with several members of a poker forum I frequent, and the majority say I should have shoved to isolate, and the KK was just bad luck. I'm wondering if I could have gotten away from the hand at all.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:49 am

SpaceLord wrote:Ok, here's my rationale.

I am 20/600 in chips, and my M is almost 25. The table has been passive, and the bubble is fast approaching. I do well at the bubble with a good stack, I think I can chip up even more as people feel the bubble pressure.

All good considerations in the situation you were in. But with the 3rd best starting hand (you're 56% vs. AK in a heads-up matchup), even with an M of 25, I think you've got to be willing to isolate here. QQ is vulnerable to overcards on a flop, and if you're up against 3 "random" hands (which you aren't here, as these are UTG+1 calling an UTG raise and the button calling two early position raisers), it's only 53.5% if you're showing it down to the river. If you push out the junk and face off against the all-in, you've put yourself in a position to either have 46k or 76k. I'm not liking your chances of playing QQ out of position against two additional hands in an effort to end up with even more than 76k chips by the end of the hand.

It was a tough decision not to shove preflop, but both callers of my UTG raise had as many chips as I did.

Noted. Relevance? Is there something you've picked up on earlier in their play to make you think the call (your UTG raise)- call (your hypothetical isolation all-in) is in their playbook? (As it turns out UTG+1 *was* ready to make this play, which seems super-weird to me, but c'est la vie.)

The presence of other bigger stacks at the table (in the hand or not) would only seem relevant in the sense of wanting to chip-up ahead of them in a utility sense. You with a 76k chipstack makes you the table leader. Combine that with your bubble play confidence, and I think that embracing additional variance by playing QQ postflop vs. multiple opponents is a mistake.

Now if you had a speculative hand (

say), the presence of additional deepstacks in the hand would *beg* you to only call here. Hope one of them hits TPTK and can't get away when you make your straight. But I don't see how two deepstacks in the hand makes the same argument for a likely overpair/two-outer draw.

If I shove to isolate the short stack, and win, I chip up a bit. If I shove, get called by either big stack, I take the chip lead.

You'd have gained the chiplead with the isolation play.
You: 57185
SB: 11705
BB: 1000
Preflop call-folders: 6000
Antes: 6x100
Total: ~76k (M = 33)

UTG+1 after the call-fold: 59.5k
Button after the call-fold: 62k

That's meaningful.

If I shove and lose, I go from 20/600 to bust. If either of the callers has AK+, and calls my shove, I am in a coin flip that I don't think I need, in the best case scenario.

QQ vs. AK vs. ( 22+,A2+,KQ ) = 51% (you're 1.27 to 1 if heads-up against AK, IMO QQ is better than a standard "coin flip" vs. AK)

And someone who could call in that spot with AK (potentially crippling their current table-captain big stack), could easily justify making that same play with 88+ as well. You'd got to love that double up+, eh?

The difference between 20/600 and 1/600 at this point was not worth all my chips at that point.

Isn't this an argument for not playing in pots vs. the large stacks (especially when out-of-position) then? If that's the case, then I'd agree your post-flop bet is extremely suspect.

But I think you take your chances with going from M24 to M33 and taking over the table chip-lead with your QQ. It's not ULTRA-UTILITY by any means, but I like it better than embracing volatility.

My biggest problem with my play was the C-bet on the flop. Because I am OOP the whole hand, I can't get much information at all from the UTG+1 player. If I check, and he bets, what do I do? The flop was great for me.

Agreed. Playing OOP is hard against bigger stacks. But you had a play (preflop) that negated that disability.

In the actual hand, UTG +1 had KK, rivered a set, and busted me.

Putz. Was it an extremely-active-table/BB-obviously-spoiling-to-go-all-in? The call-call with KK deserved an ace on the flop.

I've been discussing this hand with several members of a poker forum I frequent, and the majority say I should have shoved to isolate, and the KK was just bad luck. I'm wondering if I could have gotten away from the hand at all.

I fall in with that majority from the other site. KK is clearly very bad luck here. But you could have gotten "unlucky" against a range of hands that you let continue on based on your preflop decision.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:44 am

FTP has a new type of SNG. It's called "The Matrix." A standard buy in (say $10+1) gets you into tournament (either vs. 5 others or 8 others). The deal is, it opens up four windows and you play four simultaneous SNGs against the same group of opponents. The prize pool ($90 in my example) is split five ways, the standard 50%/30%/20% (for a 9p tournament) for each of the top-three finishers on each table, and one final split (same percentages) for The Matrix winner. You get matrix points based on how you do on each table: 1 point for outlasting someone, and 2 points for knocking someone out. Top-3 matrix finishers (again, for a 9p tournament) get 50%/30%/20% of $90/5 (so $18 prize pools spread five ways, $9 for firsts $5.40 for seconds, $3.60 for thirds). The extra twist: if you win all four tables, you get the whole prize pool.

I played in a $1+.25 6p tournament (what can I say, I'm a true degenerate gambler). Now I've never played in multiple SNGs simultaneously in the past. A 9p tournament would have given me more downtime between hands, but a 6p tournament pretty much means action is constantly on you. While playing 4 hands at once, I found I played fit-or-fold poker, and bet sizing took full advantage of the "bet pot" button in the interface. It was HECTIC. I'm sure the kids (and folks with ADD) would love it. It wasn't until I got knocked off of two tables before I could really pay attention to my opponents' tendencies. But as it turned out, I won the other two tables *and* took the Matrix prize, which meant of the $6 up for grabs, I won $0.78 x 3 = $2.34

It was actually pretty fun. I had a blast putting a person all-in on two separate tables at the same time. And while I think a strength of my game is nullified in this format (keeping tabs on opponents' tendencies), a different strength is emphasized (making quick, accurate decisions). With so many starting hands, it felt like I had plenty of playable opportunities (AA, KK, other pairs, good aces, etc.) so it was easier to sit back and wait for hands (to the extent that you can sit back and wait for hands on a 6-person table played on the internet where blinds go up every 6 minutes). The Matrix helps spread the effect of luck across multiple tables, which should help reduce variance. And there is a little bit of extra metagaming at work (such as when I had the same guy all-in on two tables at once: could he really think I had the best hand both times, or was I bluffing once and value-betting the other?). Folks adept at multitasking (i.e., not me) should have *huge* advantages in this format. But I had fun, and could see giving it a whirl again in the future (likely for higher stakes!).

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:27 am

Just wanted to brag briefly about winning the $500 Big Monday challenge game on NLOP last night. Unfortunately $500 is the total payout to 6 places, so I only took $250. Not bad for free though.

There wasn't actually a whole lot of excitement to the hands I played. I played very conservatively. I don't think I chased a flush OR a straight the entire tournament. I had quad 6's once, but didn't make a ton since the others in that hand were playing a bit weak and I knew they'd jump ship on a big bet. The most fun hand was simply when I drew aces. I had about 8k chips. Other dude with just slightly fewer chips drew K's. He bet 5k, so of course I called. We went all in on the flop and all went as it should. The ONLY times I bluffed was playing the SB against the BB heads up. Probably the best poker maxim I've learned is, "Never bluff against players who call too much." That applies almost across the board in free online games.

Chalk one up for Harringtonian poker. If I had to write a poker book, I'd call it Fold Your Way to Success.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 10:24 am

Awesome! Congrats!!

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:34 pm

I've been updating our poker site (link in signature) with the weekly going's on. I'm on a particularly vile bad streak (which I've only semi-documented).

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:16 pm

Update:

Finally, my live streak of bad luck is broken! Sunday night, at the Gilpin casino, I won the 120$ Colorado Poker Championship(CPC) qualifier. There were 68 entries, and I took home $2250.

With 20 players left, I was back down to my starting stack of 13k chips. I decided that if I did survive to the final table, I wasn't going to be the short stack with a prayer. I shoved KJ suited from UTG, hoping that my tight image lets me take the blinds, and get called by TT, and flop a J. 7 of the players were tight, and several times per orbit I could take advantage of this once the two aggresive stacks had already acted. I shoved all-in with AK, one of the aggressive players called with AQ, and I doubled, moving to the 2nd biggest stack at the table.

The biggest stack was to my right, I raised to 4x from the button with TT, mostly looking to steal. The SB surprisingly just called. The flop came K99. He put out a 30% bet, and I sensed weakness. Even though I was drawing slim if he had a K or a 9, I snap-shoved. He seemed suprised, and asked for a chip count. When he realized it would cost 80% of his remaining stack to call, he folded.

Later, he told me he had Jacks, which made sense. He is beat by any King, any 9, and QQ/KK/AA, all well within my raising range. That vaulted me to the chip lead, and we were soon at the final table.

I ran over the final table with raises around 1/2 the time, and although I doubled up 2 people, my stack grew fast enough to compensate by stealing 2-3 times per orbit.

All in all, it was refreshing to get a live win again. Top 2 each CPC tourney make it to the CPC finals in January, with a 50k guaranteed prize pool.

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:40 am

Nice work. Especially gutsy move with the TT. Don't know if I could have done it.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:47 am

Awesome! Best luck come January!

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:56 am

The Meal:

As you were speaking of the Matrix SNGs, I thought I'd mention the Double or Nothing SNGs on Stars. It's as simple as a 10-player SNG, where half the players make twice the buyin, and the other half do not. Could be interesting....

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:52 pm

SpaceLord wrote:The Meal:

As you were speaking of the Matrix SNGs, I thought I'd mention the Double or Nothing SNGs on Stars. It's as simple as a 10-player SNG, where half the players make twice the buyin, and the other half do not. Could be interesting....

Does the game end when the fifth player goes out? Or do you keep playing for pride?

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:59 pm

Maybe it's the stuff I'm working on for my employment, but I don't follow the premise for the double-or-nothings.

Could you explain in simpler terms?

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:08 pm

paulbaxter wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:The Meal:

As you were speaking of the Matrix SNGs, I thought I'd mention the Double or Nothing SNGs on Stars. It's as simple as a 10-player SNG, where half the players make twice the buyin, and the other half do not. Could be interesting....
Does the game end when the fifth player goes out? Or do you keep playing for pride?

The tournament ends when the 5th player is eliminated, and the remaining 5 double their buyin, i.e. a 10$ DoN SNG gives the remaining 5 20 bucks.

Baroquen · Post by **Baroquen** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:29 pm

I finally got a chance to try the FT matrix format. I'm enjoying it so far. I've only tried the 9 player variety, as I think 6-handed would go way to quickly for me. I agree that there's not as much chance to "read" the other players at the table but I was able to take advantage of my apparent "tight" image to trap some aggressive types.

It hasn't and probably will never be much of a real money maker for me, but it's definitely different, and I find it entertaining. That's why I play. The double or nothing sounds interesting too. Might have to try that next.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:33 am

Amendment 50 passes in Colorado

This allows 24-hour casino operations, as well as roulette and craps, and, blissfully, a 100$ maximum bet, raised from 5$.

I'd love to play some 2/5/100 Spread Limit Omaha up there soon. I've been having lots of success online at it, and want to play it live.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Nov 05, 2008 11:21 am

Lots of happiness from me that that one passed as well. CO has been trying to expand its gaming in that area since 1982 or so. Whenever Amendment 50 discussions came up at the poker table, fellow gamblers seemed convinced that it was inevitable to fail.

There's one minor hurdle left in that Amendment 50 passing means that the local communities (Black Hawk, Silver City, Cripple Creek) get to hold elections to decide their own fate. I can't imagine folks living in those areas *not* voting to allow for these expansions. (Why else would you live in Black Hawk, say, than to exploit the out-of-town dollars brought in by people coming in to gamble?)

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:42 am

Wooo!

My week in poker:

Saturday, noon, Golden Gates: With 20 people left, I had 1.5 BBs.

I finished 6th for like 160 bucks.

Monday night, Golden Gates: Finished 4th for 350$.

Wednesday night: Chopped the Wacky Wednesday 7PM tourney for 1200 bucks.

Running good!